Monday Bracketology Update

Dylan Burkhardt

All of the bracketologists updated their brackets today and it seems like all of them but Warren Nolan have Michigan in the field of 65. The consensus is that Michigan is right around the 10/11-seed line. Personally, I would rather see a 10 or 11 seed than a 9 seed. Michigan is in good position as we head into the conference tournaments but the bottom line is the Iowa game on Thursday looms large. I am very nervous and it is a definite trap game. Not to mention the fact that so many things can happen around the country to drive the number of available bids downward. Hopefully the team takes Manny Harris’ words to heart:

“It feels good, but I’m not going to feel as good until (the NCAA bid) is in writing and I see it on Selection Sunday,” Harris said. “We’ve got a lot more work to go.”

Bracket Updates:


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  • Brick

    Warren Nolan is a tool. Minnesota and PSU in ahead of us along with Kansas State, Arizona, Maryland, Florida, and UNLV? This bracket is a joke.

  • steveo

    Warren Nolan = moron

    Don’t even bother looking at his site. As Brick just said, look at those teams in… The only one who even has a comparable resume at this point is Arizona.

  • Yup, Warren Nolan’s bracket seems ridiculous. It is a very nice site for RPI/SOS/Resume information though.

  • Adam

    I feel like Lunardi has us a tad too low. It’s no secret that he loves the Big Ten yet we rise just a few spots in the last 2 weeks after beating a top 15 Purdue team and then winning at arguable the toughest place to win in the conference?

    I realized Wisconsin won there on Wednesday but Minnesota has two quality wins this year and we went there and took care of business. I’m not satisfied with just beating Iowa, I’d love a top half seed and maybe a 7?? I see your point about not wanting to have to play a #1 in the second round but the guys have showed they are anything but intimidated by teams like Duke, UCLA, and UConn.

  • We beat Wisconsin on Wednesday.
    PSU looks like it will be the first team out from the Big Ten (though they may even get in) unless NU makes a run.

  • ahtrap

    I was about to say…my radio was reporting bad news for the Badgers last Wednesday…the kind of loss that had me wondering how all these bracketologists had Wisconsin as a lock, despite a 6 game losing streak ealier in the big ten schedule.

    Looking at Nolan’s brackets, I see he has Michigan’s record as 18-12…is that due to not counting the Michigan Tech (Div II) win?

  • JimC

    “The Hawkeyes were missing four key players for most of the game and they still beat U-M… Now, their big man Cyrus Tate is back… and guard Jake Kelly may be playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten right now…”

    Yeah I’m nervous too. I still have nightmares from 2006. The boys better be ready.

    Well as a fan, it’s been a lot of ‘must win’ games all season. So more thrills on Thursday.

  • Kris
  • Jon

    That win over Minnesota was not only huge for our tournament hopes, but also huge for travel arrangements. If we were a 12, it was almost a guarantee that we were headed for Portland or Boise. Now, the most likely destinations are Miami, Greensboro, or Philly. If we move up to a 9 or 10. We’ll be headed even closer to home, probably KC, or even Dayton. If we make dayton, it’s gonna be one tough ticket.

  • Bill

    Jon- How do you know all that about the locations? I always just kind of assumed that would be nearly impossible to figure out.

  • Mith

    I am going to barf waiting for Thursday to get here. A win and I know we can celebrate!!! A loss, and that means a LONG weekend of fretting.

    I don’t think the Committee wants to let 8 B10 teams in unless it has to. If Penn St., Minnesota, or Michigan lose their first round BTT game that’ll give the committee the excuse they need to dump those teams.

    Please win Thursday.

  • jgunnip

    There not much difference imo amongst the top 9-12 teams in the country so I don’t really see why we are fretting about seeding. It’s going to come down to matchups. There might be a one seed matchup that is potentially better than a 3 seed matchup, its hard to say, and don’t forget we sorta have to win the first game for any of that to be relevant.

    I’m just hoping we can beat Iowa and then relax and wait for our name to be heard somewhere when the brackets get released.

  • Alex

    Forgetting the seeding, which of those 9-12 top teams would we least like to see, which would we most like to see?

  • jgunnip

    Playing a team like UNC, Pitt, UConn, or Oklahoma who have bigs that can dominate are bad match-ups for us, especially if we draw a bad location. However we were competitive with UConn in Storrs so who knows. The more neutral the court (or in our favor) the more I like our chances of making a run. Memphis is a team I wouldn’t be potentially seeing in the 2nd round. Kansas and Wake Forest don’t particularly scare me either.

    In the first round I’d hope for an overrated opponent that isn’t peaking like Marquette or LSU to someone like Oklahoma St or Texas A&M who have played well down the stretch.

  • Manny Fresh

    I think what regional you play in is kind of a crapshoot if you are not a 1 or 2 seed. I am particularly hoping we get sent to Greensboro as it is closest to me, but I’m assuming UNC will be the 1-seed there, which means half the teams will be 1-8-9-16 seeds (i.e. not us). So I feel like we only have half as good a shot at Greensboro as anywhere else.

    Maybe I have thought about this a little too much.

  • raiderfan

    See I think different about Wake. They scare the hell out of me especially if they end up a 2 and we would potentially have to play them in a 2-10 second round match up. They are exactly what we struggle with. They are big, actually they are huge. They press, which we are horrible with, except our BEST pg Grady, they fly up and down the court, and they hit the boards. They have probably the best penetrating pg in the country in Jeff Teague from my alma mater Pike High School in Indianapolis. UConn has bigs that aren’t dominant offensively but teams like Pitt (DeJuan Blair), UNC (Hansborough), Louisville (Earl Clark), Washington (Brockman), and Oklahoma (Blake Griffin) who have big men that can completely change the phase of a game are what scares me.

  • Jon


    Locations are based on the top seeds. Since almost all of the top 16 seeds in this year’s tournament are from the East Coast, South East, and Midwest, none of the 1s, 2s, and 3s will be sent to play in either Portland or Boise, with the exception of Washington and possibly UCLA. Thus, as an 11, we will go to the closest location of the threes. So assume Washington goes to Portland, duke is a 3 in greensboro, wake is a lower ranked 3 sent to miami, and we have villanova as a 3 in philly, with the possibility of clemson and missou becoming 3s. We are going to one of these locations. Since Oklahoma, Kansas, Memphis, and Missouri are all closest to Kansas City, if we are a 10/11, its very likely we will be sent there. However, because we have moved up to an 11, and seem to be moving up in the s-curve, it is near impossible that we will be sent to boise, as boise will probably host the lowest two 4 seeds.

    If Michigan wins on Thurs and Fri, we will probably be a 8/9, meaning well prob go to Greensboro, Dayton, or Kansas City. If we just win thurs, assume a 10, and assume kansas city, Philadelphia, or Minneapolis. If we lose Thurs, its Boise or bust.

  • JON

    And Manny, it is a crapshoot that will determine our location. However, knowing who is gonna be the 1s,2s,3s,and 4s as well as knowing your general location on the s-curve makes it possible to cross off certain locations. Boise is the main one, since no team from the rockies or the upper northwest is likely to be higher than a 4, and I just dont think we’ll be lower than an 11.

  • IX

    Only way I see us going to Dayton is if we are an 8/9 seed. Pitt is going to get a #1 seed and be placed in Dayton for sure. L’ville has a great shot to get a #1 seed as well. The closest first round site to them is Dayton, so they’d be placed there as well. That means all the first round games at Dayton will either be 1/16 or 8/9 games. Win against Iowa Thursday and we can easily be in the discussion for a 9 seed.

    Another reason we likely won’t get Dayton is because we’ll be facing a higher-seeded team first round (most likely). The committee knows putting us in Dayton will draw a large Michigan crowd and I don’t think they’ll want to give a higher seed that disadvantage. It’s still possibly though.

    If we win Thursday and lose Friday, I think we’ll get the 10 seed. Win Friday and I think that’ll almost guarantee us in an 8/9 game. Personally, I’d rather be anywhere from a 10-12 seed and not an 8/9. Draw a 10-12 seed and we have a great shot at the Sweet 16.

    Gonzaga up on St. Mary’s by 13 at half. St. Mary’s is on the bubble, but I think they’ll get in on Selection Sunday if they go on to lose this game.

  • IX

    Musberger, Lavin, and EA doing our game on Thursday.

  • St Mary’s is getting destroyed. That can’t help their tourney chances…

    Siena/Niagara is a good one though.

  • IX

    St. Mary’s sure isn’t helping their tournament chances right now, but I still think they’ll get in. At least they have the Patty Mills excuse going for them. None of the bubble teams that choked last week really had an excuse.

    Hopefully Siena hangs on in the last 5 minutes.

  • IX

    Assuming Siena hangs on to win, these are the following mid-major teams we want to win their conference tournaments so at-large bids aren’t stolen from bubble teams:

    Butler (faces Cleveland State for Horizon championship tomorrow night)
    Utah State (conference championship is Saturday)
    Memphis (conference championship is Saturday)

    You might also want Western Kentucky to win the Sun Belt to be really safe. Their conference championship is tomorrow night. They’ll face the winner of South Alabama/Arkansas-Little Rock.

  • I’m very nervous about Butler…

  • Jon

    The way mills played tonight for St. Mary’s, they can’t be in anymore, even if they put up big numbers on ewu on Friday. Siena was probably gonna get in regardless of the result, so with them winning late we look good. Overall a successful night, even if we are on the upper half of the bubble.

    Sidenote: Oakland is wrapping up a win over SD St. to put them in the Summit Finals. A win tomorrow over ND St puts them in the tournament, putting another tournament team on our resume.

  • Go Golden Grizzlies!!!

  • IX

    I’m nervous about Butler as well. Butler barely beat CSU on senior day a couple weeks ago in Indianapolis. The game is on Butler’s home court, so that’ll help some. Their fans know CSU is a good team and they’ll be fired up for this one. I’ll say Butler wins by single digits, but it’ll be close the whole game.

  • Jon

    As much as it pains me to root against a hometown team that, since 1986, has playing UNC to under 10 points as home as a highlight, I really want Butler to win. And while CSU is good, I don’t see a win in hinkle.

    Just wondering, what percentage of people are planning on going if we make it? Dayton is one thing, but what percentage of people would fly to see us play? Fly to Boise/Portland?

  • Jon: I’m planning on trying to make it out. Just really hoping we don’t get sent to Boise or Portland…

  • Jon

    Likewise. Parents talked to victors club today and got assurances on tickets. Also got the lowdown on ticket distribution:

    If you’re a student and got a season ticket, you’ve got a guaranteed seat. If you don’t there will be seats available to students by lottery as long as we don’t go to Dayton (Small Arena).

    Priority points and Season ticket holder years will determine other seats.

  • IX

    Good for students, the 450ish who actually bought tickets damn well deserve to go!

  • IX

    If we get placed in Minneapolis and you can’t get a ticket thru Michigan’s ticket office, definitely go to Dome stadiums only sell out for the Final Four. Same situation if we end up in Sweet 16 in Glendale or Indianapolis.

  • Jon: That is awesome news… I damn well should get tickets before all the bandwagoners!

  • Jon

    If you can’t get tickets through U of M, do what my dad and I always did when we went, even to Final Fours (and IX, we were able to obtain seats for the final four this same way). It’s kinda classless, but it always works:

    1. Call up ticket office of school playing where we are. Either claim to be an alumni or claim that your wife/mother is an alumni. Request tickets. Take down list of people in ticket office traveling with team and working and those who aren’t.

    2. When you arrive in city, go to school headquarters to pick up tickets. If they question you or can’t find your record, start naming people from the ticket office that either didn’t come or aren’t working. Unable to contact these people, the only option the ticket managers will have is to give you any extra tickets they have available. You’ll be near the back, but you’ll be in.

    This method has failed once: Texas at the Final Four in 2003. It has worked at 10 different rounds of the tournament, with at least one team playing in each session. The key is to choose the lowest seeds. If we are a 10, get on the phone with the 15.

    If that doesn’t work, just go, and you can easily scalp, especially if we play during the afternoon session. Tickets should not be the highest of worries: Airfare should.

  • Jon

    As for the tickets, that is the plan. But I was told that excessive demand always changes things, and that this may be the case in Dayton, which is about the same size as crisler. U of M will get about 1750 tickets in this size arena, and if we do go, its gonna be difficult to please everyone.

    Boise is the same size as Dayton, but I wouldn’t expect the demand for tickets in Idaho to match.

  • Redwings8831

    Its great that all students who bought season tickets have seats for the tournament, which I did. Which sucks is that I have an accounting exam on Friday from 4:30 to 6. I’m hoping we play Friday night, but don’t know how good of a chance that is.

  • jgunnip

    Another way we could get put in Dayton would be if the selection committee felt we would be a good 9 seed but decided to under seed us at 10 or 11, but put us closer to home.

  • MaizeNBlue2

    Damn man. Just our luck that Dayton’s one of the smaller arenas. My brother and I vowed to go if we get placed there, but there’s no way that we can afford airfare to get to any of the other locations.

    It sounds like getting tickets to Dayton may be a problem. I really hope we find a way to see them in the tourney. Go Blue!

  • bluebots

    Nolan has us in now.

  • Adam

    Yeah thank you Nolan. Last team in? I like how Nolan has us as an 11 seed even though we are the last team in. While he put teams who are ahead of us in his opinion as 12 seeds. Good job buddy.

  • Mith

    Adam, Remember that teams can be shifted one seed in the brackets to avoid conflicts. So even if Nolan has us as the last team in(aburdity), its not farfetched to make us a #11.

    He mentions on his site that his bracket is a prediction, so maybe he thinks Michigan will lost Thurs? Otherwise, he is way off- a win Thursday and they’re easily in.