Basics:
Who: Michigan (18-12) at Minnesota (21-8)
Where: Williams Arena, Minneapolis, MN
When: Saturday, March 7th, Noon ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Minnesota by 5
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, Minnesota KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)
Last Time: Preview / Interview / Recap
Opposition Blog: From the Barn
“It’s that same dizziness,” he said. “Second years are a roller coaster. Just when you think you’re getting better and you’ve made it, watch out, and when you think you’re never going to get better, you play great.
“We haven’t turned the corner yet. We can see the corner up there, but we haven’t turned it.”
Those were John Beilein’s words back in December when he urged fans not to get ahead of themselves after the win over Duke. The man looks like a prophet now because it is hard to call this season anything but a roller coaster. The triumphant highs after wins over UCLA, Duke, Illinois, and Purdue were in the midst of disappointing losses to Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The ride isn’t over yet, Saturday will be just another step of the way.
Michigan fans are no strangers to late season games with tournament implications. In the last three years every Michigan fan has felt the heartbreak of being left out of the dance after crushing defeat late in the season. In 2006 it was a home loss to Indiana followed by a backbreaking collapse against Minnesota in the Big Ten tournament. In 2007 it was a late game collapse against #1 Ohio State that ended Dion Harris and company’s career on a sour note.
What was John Beilein doing during over the last few years? The magic at West Virginia started in 2005 when West Virginia caught fire down the stretch and won 6 of their last 8 conference games and then marched to the Big East conference final. Their magical season continued into March when the Mountaineers beat Creighton, Wake Forest, and Texas Tech before falling an overtime short of the Final Four against Louisville (season highlight video). 2006 was more of the same as West Virginia made another tournament run, this time to the Sweet 16. We can’t pretend like John Beilein is immune to Selection Sunday disappointments. In 2007 Beilein’s squad was one of the first teams left out of the tournament despite a winning conference record but they went on to win the NIT.
Now is the chance for this program to get up off the mat. They can kill two birds with one stone on Saturday. It is a chance to get the first statement road win of the John Beilein era and just maybe punch a ticket to the NCAA tournament. The frustrating part is that it won’t be easy because Minnesota needs this one just as badly as Michigan. Both teams are working to secure a tournament bid and despite what anyone says they both have work to do.
Michigan dominated the first game even without getting much production from Manny Harris who was limited with foul trouble. Michigan out shot and out rebounded the Gophers and did a great job holding onto the ball (TO%: 12.5%). On offense it was the Zack Novak show, the freshman hit six out of ten three pointers en route to 18 points. Stu Douglass added 12 points and Kelvin Grady knocked down four triples for 12 as well. Michigan picked apart Minnesota and they had a 20 point lead midway through the second half.
I don’t expect the second time around to be quite as easy. I would expect Minnesota to look to go inside much more this time, the Gophers’ big men were 5 of 8 shooting in the first match-up but they just didn’t get many touches. Lawrence Westbrook was a non-factor, scoring 12 points on 15 shots, but anyone who saw Minnesota play Wednesday night knows that he can take over a game. Not to mention the fact that Michigan struggles to shoot on the road, another 46% day from behind the arc seems unlikely.
Looking at Minnesota’s statistical profile it is clear that they do a couple things very well. They start on the defensive end, Minnesota’s defense ranks 19th in the country in terms of overall adjusted efficiency. Their defensive excellence stems from their ability to cause turnovers and block shots. Minnesota forces their opponents to turn the ball over on 23.2% of their possessions (41st nationally) and they have sterling block (19.2, 1st nationally) and steal (13.3, 7th nationally) percentages.
The Minnesota offense falls much closer to the middle of the pack. Minnesota is an average shooting team (49.9 eFG%) but the one thing they do well is crash the offensive glass. The first match-up between these two teams was Minnesota’s worst offensive rebounding performance of the year and they only rebounded 17.7% of their misses. It will be crucial for Michigan to do a good job on the defensive glass again on Saturday. Minnesota struggles to hold onto the ball (TO% = 21.9%, 246th) and get to the free throw line (FTA/FGA = 33, 257th).
Minnesota has been hard to beat at the Barn this year, their only two losses have come to the top two teams in the conference, Michigan State and Purdue. It will probably take a near perfect game for Michigan to have a chance. Luckily Michigan has played their best with their backs to the wall and plenty of rest, both of those conditions are clearly met. In the first game Michigan rode their role players but those same role players have been almost nonexistent on the road. If we see the good side of Manny Harris and the DeShawn Sims that we saw against Purdue then this team has a shot. If not I’m going to side with Pomeroy who gives Michigan a 28% chance at victory.
Let’s hear your thoughts and predictions in the comments. For more on Minnesota’s personnel, strengths, and weaknesses make sure to go back and check out my interview with Jonathan Foster of From the Barn, and my last preview. No live blog for this one but I’ll be in the comments leaving my thoughts and others are encouraged to join.
Pre-Game Reading (updated until game time)
- Heading into Minnesota, Michigan feeling the heat from sitting on bubble
Harris: “You try not to think about it or put that much pressure on yourself, but it’s going to stay in your head,” Harris said. “You just kind of got to relax and free your mind. It’s hard to do.” - U-M avoids talk of bubble
Are they avoiding it or feeling the heat? - The five finalists for Michigan’s Mr. Basketball award
Congrats to Eso for making the list - Do Or Die
Brian previews the game - Bad Losses: Knowing When to Panic
Gasaway tackles the question of just how bad is a “bad loss” - From 344 to 65
Prospectus on the bubble - Ben Cronin yearns for bigger role with University of Michigan basketball team
- U-M’s lack of injuries sets it apart from other Big Ten teams
- An early peek at the All-Big Ten team
The Daily projects the All-Big Ten team - Young boys young girls ain’t supposed to die on a Saturday night
WLA…
Michigan 68 Minnesota 67. We get a chance to make up for the last play at Iowa. Manny gets the call this time and drains it.
oh man only 24 hours away. odds are definitely against us but without question we can pull it off.
no prediction, but i feel like the result of this game not only determines our fate but really justifies it too. if we lose i pray we make the tourney anyway but i don’t think anybody should complain if we get left out. two weak road wins just doesn’t cut it.
if we win, the minnesota game will prove we did what we couldn’t all season, and there should be no doubt we get in.
to bring up an old question. kelvin played a lot in the minny game cause of manny’s foul trouble. since he hasn’t played much or particularly well but due to his success in that game anyone think we will see more minutes tomorrow?
If Minnesota brings the press I think we will see Kelvin. Who knows though.
The Gophers finally have figured out that getting the ball to two near-7 footers has its upside. Leuer and Landry got worked pretty badly (though it translated to more fouls than points) and Michigan’s “bigs” (who lack bigness) could be in trouble. Of course the Gophers could decide to shoot 30 three pointers again, and that result in an ugly blow out.
From Basketball Prospectus:
“In the time period that Ken studied, teams that won a home game by between 10-19 points won the road game against that same opponent just 51 percent of the time. In fact even home teams that won by blowout margins, between 20 and 29 points, won the road game just 58 percent of the time.”
http://www.basketballprospectu.....icleid=575
We won by 12 last time, so that would put us at about 51 percent for this game. I just really like how we match up against Minnesota. They’re good at forcing turnovers, but that’s not really a problem for us. They block a lot of shots, but we shoot from the perimeter. The one thing that concerns me is that they will just kill us on the glass. I’m expecting a Michigan victory.
From From the Barn:
http://fromthebarn.org/2009/03.....p-complete
Ralph Sampson played great defense on the inside, but got complete lost every time he got pulled away from the basket.
That’s encouraging for Michigan because he will be forced to play away from the basket… The bad part is..
# Damian Johnson’s break out performance wasn’t a fluke, and his new found pull up jumper is another weapon that opponents will need to take into account, which should open up space for him to drive to the basket. Tubby Smith has been looking for a leader, and Johnson has clearly volunteered to fill this role.
# Colton Iverson was much more confident on the offensive end, and displayed much better hands, saving at least two turnovers by catching bad passes that in previous games would have sailed out of bounds.
Any idea how a zone would match up against Michigan’s offense?
I know most zones create a lot of open outside shots, but so do two freshman centers chasing around much smaller players.
I have a very bad feeling about this game. I watched Minnesota’s game the other night and I just don’t think UofM can win in that environment under that pressure. I hope I’m wrong.
I’m thinking Harris doesn’t get many calls and gets frustrated driving the lane. Sims gets his points but no one else steps up.
Well I wouldn’t worry about you guys letting Sims get 3′s, that’s exactly what we don’t want to see. Novak could be killer for you guys trying to have one of your towers chase him.
I would think with your length a zone would be fairly effective but even more than the 3′s I’d be concerned about Manny/LLP getting penetration.
Sims getting threes isn’t what we want but if he is hitting that mid-range jumper he becomes very hard to guard. Sampson tries to guard him out to 18-20 feet or so and he can blow by him.
Dylan – any bubble games tonight we should keep an eye on? Creighton?
We aren’t worried at all about Manny as long as Damian Johnson is in the court. Harris had 19 at Michigan last year, but shot only 6/14 had had five turnovers. At Minnesota last year it was another 5 turnovers, and 6/16 shooting. Earlier this year it was 2/8 shooting and, yup, five turnovers.
He is obviously very capable of playing much better, but match-ups do matter.
Match ups do matter but they only go so far. Manny can be his own worst nightmare at times. He had a bad game in Ann Arbor but I think he only played 20minutes or so because of fouls.
those words are gonna come back and bite you
I hope Manny has better things to do than use some random Gopher blogger as motivation.
Don’t believe that talk about the early start (11am MN time) helping to keep the crowd down. All those animals will be making noise.
DaShonte To Syracuse
http://www.zagsblog.com/2009/0.....l-updates/
First, my pessimistic prediction:
Michigan 54
Minnesota 66
Manny tries to do everything, and that translates to tons of turnovers and bad shots. Stu is the only bright spot for us, keeping us in the game with a barrage of long treys. Novak, on the other hand, hits the wall and is completely ineffective while having to body up Iverson in the paint.
Hope I’m wrong, but this past week of confidence building is setting us up for disaster. We all think we are in with a victory here, but for some reason I don’t think we get it done.
Also, just a random bubble thought… I think the Big Ten is really going to test the selection committee’s stance that they don’t look at the number of teams from a conference. There are some VERY compelling resumes in the Big Ten and I don’t think 8 bids should be out of the question (8 is what most bracketologists have today). It will be interesting.
Just some RPI stuff here, taken from http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2009/rpi
Dayton moved from 27 to 24 adding a T25 win to Creighton and Rhode Island’s resumes.
Oklahoma state drops from 25 to 27, subtracting a T25 win for Texas A&M
Arizona dropped 9 spots to 55 taking away T50 wins for Texas A&M, UNLV, Cal, and USC
Houston’s RPI fell to 101 from 99. Arizona loses a T100 win
Wyoming moved into the top 100 (99) giving Utah St, UNLV, BYU(2), SDSU, and New Mexico additional T100 wins.
Nice updates jgunnip.
Need Wyoming over New Mexico this weekend even if it keeps them in the top 100.
It’s also pretty ridiculous how much different a resume can look with 2 top 100 wins when you have a game against a top 100 team who’s ranked 99th.
I wonder if PSU can squeak into the top 50. That would be impressive if the Big Ten had 8 teams in the top 50.
One comment this week said that the selection committee does NOT use RPI…?
Is that right? I thought for sure that it’s one of the key factors.
First off, good stuff as always Dylan…
I’ve been thinking about the game all week (of course plenty of visits here & mgoblog help) & I waiver back & forth on how it will go down. Plenty of pros (we won the 1st round, plenty of rest & prep time) & equal # of cons (road game, MN has lots of size).
I think our general level of play has been on an uptick vs. PU & WI (even though we lost) but we need to be better at crunch time (note the above games & going back to IA). If M shoots well & keeps the turnovers down we’re in it. I’ll go with us pulling one out 65 – 60.
Of course since it’s a conference game, how the refs call it will probably end up making a difference….
Great work Dylan…
If we had beaten Iowa, would this game mean as much to Michigan or would we still be in (as long as we won our first BTT game)?
Anyways, I think this game is going to be close from start to finish, and hopefully the refs dont decide it. I like UM winning 63-58.
Go Blue!
Is Minnesota probably in after their win over Wisconsin? If so, does that mean we might need the conference to get eight teams in? I’m concerned after the Minn and PSU wins this week. Are we definitely going to make it if we win tomorrow? (I know, we need to actually win the game first.)
JimC, the committee apparently does not look at the RPI rank for the team they are evaluating but they use the RPI rankings when considering what is a Top 25 / 50 / 100 win.
From Lunardi’s chat today…
Michael , Los Angeles: Does Michigan even have to beat Minnesota on Sat. considering the recent stumbles of Kentucky, Arizona, South Carolina and all the Acc bubbles?
SportsNation Joe Lunardi: Hard to say until we see all of those teams in their next games, also. Michigan is fortunate to be where they are heading into the weekend.
Also on Minnesota…
Matt (St. Paul): Do you think the gophers are a lock now or do they need a win against Michigan tomorrow.
SportsNation Joe Lunardi: Probably in. Tomorrow clinches in.
Ann Penn State…
Jeff (Syracuse, NY): Joe if penn state looses to iowa how many wins in the big ten tournament would they need.
SportsNation Joe Lunardi: Depends on who they play, Jeff. Probably two wins.
Full chat: http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/.....t_id=25335
Rivals.com has M as last 4 out today. Jeez.
http://collegebasketball.rival.....CID=920435
so two of the teams that rivals has as last four in are a&m and south carolina. a&m plays mizzou at home tomorrow so hopefully the tigers can pull it off. sc plays @ georgia so not a likely loss but their resume sucks and they shouldn’t be in.
One last call for Jevohn Shephard!! His length, athleticism and most importantly maturity could be huge for us in this game. He’s one of our only seniors and he’s been and played in situations like these. Getting him 10 minutes in this game to spell Novak would be a good thing imo.
The more I think about this game the more pessimistic I get. The Barn sucks, but we have had a whole week off and the team knows whats at stake. At least this game matters—-at the beginning of the year who would have thought we’d be in this position? Not me. Go Blue, let’s get it done boys!
shep and wright may see some pt due to their length, i however would say this is highly unfortunate.
It can probably be said that if we had won at Iowa, then we would be in, but would we have played vs Purdue like we did? I like to say, “well, if we had beaten Wisconsin at least once, OSU, MSU, or won at Iowa then we would be in.” You can see that those are a lot of ifs. Michigan had a very good chance to win those games. Another thing to take into account is, “What would have happened if we lost vs Savannah St, @IU, or @NW?” Michigan was very close to losing those games. I guess what I am saying is that we can’t play the ‘if’ game.
As to the article that says that Michigan hasn’t had to deal with injuries…what about Cronin? I still think that he could have brought some much desired size to the center position this season and may have been the difference in 1 or 2 of those close games and again, IF Michigan had won those games, then what are we talking about? No one is immune to the injury bug and Michigan has surely gotten bitten enough in years past to make up for any perceived deficiency in that area this season.
This might be a little off the topic, but you heard this prediction here first: At the end of their respective careers at Michigan, Eso Akunne will have contributed more to the team than LLP. Lock it in.
Eso Akunne will be the best point guard Michigan has had since Rumeal Robinson.
/McCormick’d
Could Eso be an undersized version of Jamelle Cornley? That would be interesting, since Cornley is pretty darn undersized (height wise) to start with but plays like he’s 6 inches taller.
Giddings, that was my initial thought too (although I’ve never seen him play). Balas from The Wolverine disagreed and said he’s more of a guard/ball in the hand type player. Definitely intrigued to see what he can do at the next level.
haha. i just watched his highlights and a good chunk of them are against my high school. richard was a walk over for us when i was there, funny how things change.
there’s a inside gopher basketball thing on at 1130 on btn tonight.
One year ago:
We are 9-21, RPI in the 180s, no top-50 RPI wins.
Debate is around how historically bad the team is.
We lose our #3 and #5 guys in minutes, and replace them with 2 barely-recruited true freshmen and a transfer who is not playing much.
Today:
Our RPI is 44 and we have 5 top-50 RPI wins.
Debate is around which bubble teams to root against the hardest, and what the BT tiebreaker scenarios are and how they may impact our BTT seed.
As a reality check, it is good to bear in mind that our current rotation consists of:
- 2 barely recruited true freshmen
- 2 walk-ons
- 2 transfers
- a guy who did not start in high school
- a guy who played 9 min / game for TA
- and Manny
It’s like the land of misfit toys out there.
Tomorrow, we have a huge game with tourney implications, and it’s March.
However, even with all of the above, there are still people continuing to obsess about Shep / KG’s minutes, and asserting that we should replace our coach with the one at Butler. Way to focus on the positive, guys.
blueinflorida: Your comment calling out for Shep based on his maturity is an alltime classic. Can’t make that stuff up. Thanks for that.
Wow, what a buildup to this last game! As CR points out, look how far we have come in just one year. JB will only take this team to bigger and better things for Michigan basketball in the future.
Now, as for tomorrow’s game, I certainly expect another nailbiter. I really feel like this young team will have learned how to better handle late game situations and will rise to the occasion. I see another OT win, sealing a bid for the first time since 98. UM 63 – Minne 61 (OT)…..GO BLUE!!!
wow. Creighton blew a 22 pt second half lead and needed a buzzer-beater to get past 7 seed witchita state in the mvc quarterfinals. they’ve won 11 straight now and I think if they make it to the finals and don’t epic fail like illinois st did last year against drake in the finals they are safely in at this point.
CR—dude why don’t you chill out. I’m not “obsessing” over anything—-I’d be the first one in line to congratulate JB on his success this year and as I’ve stated in other threads and on other boards its been alot of fun to witness the improvement from last year to now.
Dylan (and Brian) highlighted the fact that Minnesota has a couple tall kids. While Jevohn Shepherd isn’t 6’10 or anything he’s considerably stronger and more athletic than Novak and he’s proven that he can knock down open shots. I’m just suggesting that since he’s one of our few seniors that has played in “tournament bubble games” that he might be a solid option off the bench tomorrow. That is all.
Calling guys out on umhoops.com. Way to focus on the positive.
Haha. I like your rebuttle,Blue.
man i know we were in a similar position with amaker, but this feels bigger.
Now, my optimistic prediction (also see my pessimistic prediction earlier in the comments):
Michigan 70
Minnesota 63
We keep a steady 5 point cushion the entire game, and Manny lights it up from everywhere (similar to the Purdue game). Kelvin Grady provides another spark off the bench en route to a great overall game, and Gibson comes out of no where to play a terrific game after that long spell of weak play.
last game of the regular season – we must leave it all on the couch
GAME DAY WOO!!
Yes, I’m feeling good today! Michigan takes this one 65-60!
Go Blue!
Ah I’m nervous as all heck! Go Blue!!
Spread is out, Minnesota by 5.
o/u is 126
Anyone have any idea on a stream? I live in Arizona and this noon start time is killer since bars dont open here til 1pmET so ill be bangin on the door come 10:59 but I’m hopin to catch it streamed up til then. Go Blue!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nevermind that last comment i just saw its on ESPN! I’m so happy I had just assumed it was on the BTN. Yes! Go blue!
Anybody watching ESPN Gameday? Each analyst has to choose and defend a bubble team’s resume. Bilas went with us, which drew from the WVU fans one of the biggest boooooooos i’ve ever heard.
Man Providence sucks…Digger is a moron
Yeah, I am now a big fan of Bilas. He has been our number one promoter.
RPI movements from http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2009/rpi
UCLA drops out of the T25 (26) taking away T25 wins for us and Arizona and giving Arizona, USC(2), and Notre Dame fewer T25 losses.
Syracuse jumped 3 spots to 23 giving Providence their second T25 win and adding a T25 loss to West Virginia, Florida, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame
George Mason jumps into the T50 giving Dayton and Creighton their fifth and third wins vs T50 opponents respectively.
Western Kentucky dropped out of the T50. Nothing significant there.
No significant movement at the T100 line.
Lavin really had our back in that wisco psu game. I was wondering if maybe he was getting a lil bit of money from Martin.
Bias just got sick of getting emails from Michigan fans telling him how biased he is against Michigan.
Nice speach, David. Let’s slay our giant!
oh god here we go. Go Blue!
AAARRRRGGGH IT’S HIGHTOWER
Well, you have to live on four minute segments on the road. First one goes to Michigan 4-3… Need to get something besides Peedi going, or just keep forcing it to him.
impressive post D helping out Novak
defense looking great
Here we go again, no offense at all. Lee and Merritt???????I am disgusted with this crap. Play Grady before its too late.
Why is Nolan allowed to slap our guys on the wrist?
Defense is really dominating this game on both sides. Gotta just stay in it, Minnesota could go up 5 here which is where it gets scary…
yeah, 6 points in over 8 minutes! Yeah, Merritt will lead us to greatness. What would we be doing without this world class defense by Merritt. If Grady was playing Minnesota would have scored 50 by now, right? what a joke
always bad news when manny just jacks up 3s. really bad turnovers too.
JB has to understand Grady is our only option in this game at pg. If not he will coach us to yet another loss. YES HIS COACHING IS HURTING US AGAIN.
LLP! Welcome back.
The hell? LLP making shots? Gibson with a mighty block?
Manny needs to start taking it to the hoop, it’s like he preemptively has decided he won’t get any calls and isn’t being aggressive at all.
we need offense!!!!!!!!!!!
obviously need to get manny going
Clearly we aren’t going to get many calls in this one… Gotta fight through it.
There was more contact on Sims layup then the LLP foul on Westbrook for sure.
lee is doing fine at pg. merritt is not. manny needs to get into the game.
Zero fouls called on Minnesota so far, and Peedi’s been getting hacked down low (not to mention blocking fouls when Manny drives). The Hightower Effect is definitely showing itself.
Wright is playing, but Grady cant get in???? I have lost all faith in Beilein, im sorry but this is stupid. Lee and Merritt still bringing NOTHING to the table.
Shep and Grady clearly the answer on offense… (sarcasm)
What the hell is this lineup out there? Lee, Grady, Shephard and Wright all out there at the same time?
They look awful today. Not the way I hoped they’d show up. Stupid turnovers and cold shooting. There’s a long way to go, but I’m not feeling too good about this one.
About fricking time they whistle them for all those slaps on the wrist and arm.
why would Grady not be a possible answer Dylan, how many points did Grady score last time out against Minnesota? Can they be any worse than Lee and Merritt?
Grady brings…turnovers and defensive lapses so far.
turnovers, miscommunication, defensive lapses > lee and merritt
need manny to take that 3 and use it to get hot. keeping it close w/o manny is fine. stu is playing fiesty i like it
Manny with two great plays when we got down 9. Drove and kicked and then hit the three.
over under on number of comments on this post when it’s all said and done?
UM has scored 8 points in 3 minutes since Grady was inserted, as opposed to the 12 points in 12 minutes before he was inserted. See the pattern????
how does grady bring turnovers and defensive lapses. that’s an outrageous statement. he’s forced turnovers if that’s what you mean and offense is doing the best it has since the start of the game.
Two tough breaks there. Looked like we had a turnover forced and Sampson ends up with an easy layup, then Peedi somehow blows a pretty easy look right next to the basket (he looked like his freshman self on that one).
Nice run by Michigan to answer. I made my comment when Grady and Shep came in and we had probably the ugliest turnover of the season. Need to stay in this until the half, that run was huge when he looked like they could pull away. I expect a huge second half from Manny in this game, he wants it.
so that turnover on the miscommunication right out of the timeout – possibly the worst time for that to happen – thats not attributable to grady?
Grady playing better since the first posession – a turnover, for those who apparently were still in the restroom. I hope Tubby keeps the press on, as that creates the one situation where Kelvin shines.
who made the pass jack? the guy that was immediately taken out of the game. why not point over turnovers by stu, merritt, lee, gibson etc.
Jack, what game are you watching?
Merritt looked dreadful when he was on the court, Grady playing over Merritt is definitely warranted.
Well, we got the “unlucky bounce” bucket back there, that was a terrible fastbreak and got lucky that the ball bounced right back to Sims on the strip
Manny looked like he got mauled on that drive…
sampson match up is gonna be rough all game
He did, of course.
Great hustle by Lee there to get that steal.
Wow there were 3 Minnesota guys who had a better chance at that offensive rebound than anyone on Michigan.
basket here would be amazing. either way nice way to finish out the half.
Can Michigan do something positive on one of these last possessions? Haven’t seen that much this year…
Is it true, as Merritt said in his pregame speech, that we’ve led at the half in 7 of our 10 road games? That’s unreal.
Well, that was typically terrible from our end-of-half possessions.
I can’t believe that wasn’t a foul.
jesus. what is our mental block on final possessions?
Well we have been winning alot of other road losses… Maybe if we are down we will be up at the end?
in 12 minutes before Grady was inserted we scored 12 points. In 8 minutes after Grady was inserted we scored 20 points. Lets just eliminate Merritts minutes.
Well at the start of the day our season was down to 40 minutes. Now we’re at 20 minutes and we still have a shot. First four minutes are so crucial.
Why do we suck so bad out of timeouts? What exactly are we drawing up? Get it to Manny with 5 seconds left and let him make a mistake? Can we have some movement please. Maybe draw up a post play for Simms?
Go Blue, let’s not get carried away. The biggest difference was that we went 0-6 from three during the first 12 minutes and 4-6 in the final eight. I don’t mind seeing Grady out there, but I don’t think he was necessarily the catalyst.
Well, we’ve got a chance. I think we came out very nervous on offense but we’ve settled down since the first 8 minutes. On the other side, our defensive intensity was great to start with but with Grady and LLP taking the place of CJ and Stu, it started to suffer (wide open dunk for Sampson, open 3 look for Westbrook, etc).
Still, Grady has at least been a steadying force being able to break the press. I think the whole team is nervous when Merritt is bringing the ball up the floor.
yeah we are in decent position. defense has looked solid gotta keep it up. sampson is gonna get some easy ones but gotta keep westbrook under control.
on offense keep working sims as much as possible and get manny into the lanes.
also they are really overplaying the passing lanes, gotta keep looking for the backdoor.
jmblue, this team is much better with Grady on the court as opposed to Merritt. The numbers bear this out in almost every game, including the first game against Minnesota when Grady scored 12 points in 14 minutes. You can spin the facts away and be a Beilein apologist, but just realize that Merritt is not going to get this team into the tournament.
man grady was playing great defense. he pretty much caused the turnover that led to stu’s fast break and was up in everyone’s face. he got beat once down the baseline but recovered then bailed the guy out with a foul. if we analyzed everyone’s defense half as much as grady’s you might be blaming them too.
Some numbers…
3 fouls on Minnesota the whole half. Michigan forced 10 turnovers. DeShawn is 5-9 for 13 points, LLP knocked in 6 points on 3/4 shooting. Manny is 1/5 for 3 points, 3 assists and listed at no turnovers? Stu has 3 steals.
What was the foul on Lee? Being illegally screened?
Not the start we needed…
Too much size…
ARGH how was that not a travel on the Minny player falling down with the ball?
Get Grady in there now.
We have a real problem scoring at the beginning of halves on the road. I don’t get it.
The black ref is terrible!!! I can see why The Barn is so tough to play in…7 vs 5! The “foul” on CJ was a joke! Manny looks more and more like 2nd or 3rd team all-big ten…DSims is now our best player. Gotta get some stops and somehow get to the line. Oh yeah, Coach B does another great job drawing up an end of the half play!
Damn, Johnson is real good on D. The From the Barn blogger was right. It’s not lookin too great right now, still time though.
Go Blue – when did I ever say Merritt should be playing over Grady?
danger zone. better figure out a post defense solution asap.
worth pointing out that a 71% FT shooting team hasn’t missed on 11 chances. we could use a couple more misses. Not to mention the 4 or 5 more FT’s we would have at a neutral site.
If stu and Novak are cold, we’re done.
If Minny continues to shoot 61% from the field and 100% at the line, we will not win.
Do we have some growth pills or something? Took Minnesota a game and a half but they finally figured out to pound it inside.
I think we need more of an inside defensive presence. Gibson?
Also that “screen with purpose” looked more like an offensive line blocking technique… He drilled Stu with both hands, that is not a legal pick. Not to mention the traveling that is going on out there.
4 points in 6 minutes without Grady! Here we go again, no offense. Put Grady in and watch the offense start scoring, there is a correlation believe it or not.
wow, that last rebound that lead to the dunk was so far out of bounds…. Not giving up hope, but I don’t see a realistic way of this happening.
Dylan, why do you still agree with JB about the Grady thing? Merritt is absouletly horrible, and CJ is a 2 guard. Our offense is dreadful at best with either one of them at the point. Lee’s defense is no longer a factor either. I never said anything about Shep playing, hust Grady.
Once again I will ask WHY IS NOVAK unsubbable? Put Wright in
Merritts in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Beilein is a joke, ride em all the way to the NIT.
We just need to step up the defense…
I know most of you disagree, but JB is hurting us more than hes helping. Once again he wants to teach a lesson more than win.
the back door has to be open. nobody is looking for it.
Yes. I agree. Our coach is purposely not putting in the players he think will help us win because he wants to teach our kids a lesson. That makes a lot of sense.
Ok Paul explain to me why any coach would ever sit there best pg and play 2 horrible walk ons. What because they are better than Grady? Find me one person that agrees with you and I will never bring it up again. Its a personal thing between JB and Grady. Winning has no factor in his decision.
laughable…. beilein lost this game…. no reason for merritt to play… when grady plays at the end of the first half we closed the gap
LLP!!! CARRYING THE TEAM
LLP!
I love this team, but boy they make me mad sometimes. These road games are just killing me. If they can get better on the road next year, then we’ll finally break that tourney drought. But until then, its NIT again.
I don’t care how optimistic everyone wants to be, they are not making the tourney at 8-10 unless they at least make the BTT finals. And I don’t have much faith in that happening.
LLP!!!!!!
Hello LLP!
LLp nice to see you again!!!
ken, i think llp read your post last night
Just watch JB will take out LLP and put in Stu.
raiderfan… i agree with you… this is beyond explainable. Minnesota presses and JB sits the one pg he has who can break a press
And then LLP goes nuts, and they draw me right back in…
LLP with a heat check. Answer: still hot.
Minny is shooting like we did against Purdue in the second half is hitting all their free throws, we’re on the road, and we’re amazingly within 4.
can I mention that I love 3 pointers… they can close a gap so quickly when they fall, and ruin comeback attempts when they don’t.
All we see are the games. I have no idea what goes on in practice, but for some reason, JB thinks that he’d rather have the current lineup on the floor. What evidence besides the fact that a player, who has been poor on defense throughout the season, is being kept on the bench simply because of a personal vendetta on the part of the coach?
Maybe he did, Avery. If he can single handedly get us into the tourney, then I will never diss the man again.
Shot clock never started. That should be our ball.
must have msu time keepers there
guaranteed that this call won’t go our way
Paul the point is you try to win at all costs. You play the best players you have and you hope they get it done. When you have 2 players who are clearly at a disadvantage talent wise, Merritt and Lee, they should not play at all, honestly, in the biggest game for Michigan in the last 10+ years. Dumb coaching
Gotta agree with most of you…KG is head and heels over Merrit! It will be nice not to have to watch him next year! Novack seems tired…maybe a breather Coach?
This is taking forever. Hightower doing his best to try to cool down LLP.
Off topic, but the Netherlands is leading the DR in the WBC in the 8th inning right now, 3-2. That would be just a wee bit of a surprise.
That should be a shot clock violation
lee has a talent disadvantage…but is heart is the strongest on the floor for both teams…so he should and will keep playing.
hahaha
unbelievable
There is no way that was only6 seconds…
I’m not saying I’d rather have Lee or Merritt in the game, I’m just saying that for this to be a personal thing makes little sense.
Fourth foul on Johnson .
I don’t mind Lee as much as Merritt but he is not a point guard. He is a 2 guard. He can’t dribble good enough to be a point guard. And he doesn’t know how to get his teammates involved like a pg should.
Michigan in the bonus… now we just need to get to the line
I actually think this is a reasonable way to split the difference. It was more than 6 seconds, but it’s hardly fair to blame Minnesota completely. They would have jacked up a shot or done something if the shotclock had been running down.
And we ended up getting the ball anyways, and now that guy who was killing us has 4 and we’re in the bonus. Sweet.
Yeah, but Minn would have taken a shot if the shot clock was working. I think it was a fair call.
If its not a personal thing Paul, what is it?
It’s not personal but… Who was the point guard during this run?
Fair enough.
Let’s win this game now.
Fair call…they can’t give them a fantom shot clock violation….even though the home clock keeper was at fault….
looks like the boys realized they had to pick it up….the finish should be fun!
We are back in this. This team has no quit.
Dylan, LLP was the best poit guard since Rumeal Robinson on this run.
no matter what happens, you have to love the heart these kids show. They want this as bad as any of us. LLP has earned his start for the next game IMO.
no grady and their pressing .. gotta be personal
He was doing what everyone else was, watching LLP
Over the f’n back. Theyve been doing that all game. BLOCK OUT
Wow, we got bailed out big time there.
get a rebound
sims is getting hot now
huge!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Simms can make it look so easy. Dylan, Simms is our biggest mismatch
Finish boys. This is it. 3:50 to play. Every possession matters.
this is it boys. can we do what we couldn’t all season. slay the giant.
Alright, let’s get Johnson out of the game, take it right at him.
LLP at the point, I like it
good foul
Nice play there to Novak but he couldn’t finish. Peedi almost pulled the o-board and then the block on CJ the other way. Ugh. Are they in the bonus?
we need to stop having time outs. We don’t seem to execute after them.
Novak got hacked, but we can’t expect to get that call on the road.
according to mgoblue we are getting outrebounded 27-11 (9-4) offensive
to foul out Johnson will take a blatant call. Hightower doesn’t wanna hear boo’s. He never does.
This officiating is the worst I’ve seen this season. Novak got raped
I do have a question for the experts here. On that floor scrum where we called timeout, do you want to use a timeout when they may be valuable down the stretch to stop a scrum? Yes, the scrum may go against you, but is that one posession more valuable than the timeout later on?
come on boys
OMG REBOUND
We are getting dominated on the glass. Frustrating.
possession far more important in that situation. Not an expert, just my opinion. Gotta love Hightower on his knees here…
MANNY!!!!!!!!!!!
Manny!
Manny Manny Manny
Let’s not pull a Wisconsin now.
How is that a foul but Novak’t wasn’t?
Nolen’s in, here comes a press
you mean an Iowa? or wait any other road game? They gotta buckle down and slay their Giant.
Thanks aceduce. I am no bb expert. Just curious.
FINISH!
he meant wisconsin vs minnesota. they were up like 7 at the end and let it slip away a few days ago
Dude these fouls are ridiulous. Call it both ways
here’s my question, those 2 pts from Peedi or the time off the clock?
Need a basket here. Come on.
NOT A TIME OUT! We suck after timeouts
2 points. make it a 2 possession game and play some d
I hate us out of timeouts. We need to execute
My heart can’t take the stress. We score here and its ours.
Yeah, thanks Andrew. I was talking about the WIS/MINN game from Wednesday.
we should foul here. 1 and 1
Time out Tubby! do you foul? I dunno
ow my heart! Thanks Tubby!
COME ON D. Do we foul here?
Should we foul here? Dont want them to get 3
I say foul
no foul….make them make a bucket….
but then again, if we foul and they make the first, we have to get that rebound. Not our strongest suit
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Muppets!
YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS! GO BLUE! What a win…….I FEEL LIKE DANCING!
YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thank you God. What a comeback. Great effort boys. Thanks LLP
WOOOOOO HOOOOOOO!!!!!!
I feel better now.
YES! Victory. Double digit second half lead and we come back. Nothing but heart.
Dang those boys have heart…
and that’s why we watch. GO BLUE BABY.
that was pretty awesome………however how bad are beileins plays off time outs…….absoultely terrible ………cant believe michigan just won that
And I know it has NOTHING to do with it, but just in case, thanks for not liveblogging this thing…
DANCE DANCE DANCE DANCE! WOOOOOOO
live blog curse is real
LLP???? where does that come from….I sure as hell hope we get more of that this season.
Next step. Beat Iowa. And hope for a 10 seed.
Turnovers won it for us today. Minnesota had a higher FG%, FT%, and splattered us on the board. UM had 11 rebounds all game; no player on Michigan had more than 2.
OH WOW!!! I think we’re dancing, regardless, but let’s win one in the BTT just to be sure.
Back when they had to win 4 of 6 to have a shot, I didn’t know if they could do it. And then they lost to Iowa and I figured NO WAY they’d when 2 of those 3. But dang it, they did. Heck, they could have easily won all 6.
Let’s go to the BTT, win a few and have some fun.
We did it. We’re going dancing.
YES!!!!!
These guys, from Beilein on down, deserve all the credit in the world for keeping their composure after falling down 10-12 points multiple times. We don’t have the most size but we have incredible heart. GO BLUE!
I’m so proud of this win. This team is just so outmatched in size and they’ve been told so many times they’re not a legit tournament team but they pulled it out with the biggest shots of them all. I love these guys, they are IN.
But before we get ahead of ourselves, we’ve got a really really sweet setup for the Big Ten Tournament now. We’ve clinched no lower than 7th, and we won’t see MSU till the title game, which we can make if we beat Iowa, Penn State, and Illinois in the first 3 rounds!
I have never been so excited for Michigan basketball in my life!
So this is what a good Michigan team feels like. I’m so proud of the heart we showed in the 2nd half. It’s so weird to watch a Michigan team I actually like. This is a perplexing feeling. Let’s go dancing!
“Turnovers won it for us today. Minnesota had a higher FG%, FT%, and splattered us on the board. UM had 11 rebounds all game; no player on Michigan had more than 2.”
Don’t forget the 3-ball. We went 9-22 from 3. They were only 2-10, so our eFG% was actually higher than theirs.
BTW, Minnesota shot 55 percent from the field today.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fWvub_WBho
i feel like this team could really sore now… confidence is probably at an all time high, NCAA monkey is probably off the back lets go to the BTT and make some noise… great win… heart pounding, but I will take it
Dave – How about the play he drew up for the LLP 3 in the wing which got us back in the game?
I also want to give credit to Merritt today, not so much for his play, but for a hell of a pregame speech. This game came down to exactly what he talked about and they did it.
I’ve been too busy celebrating my little white buns off, so I forgot to say WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! I literally prayed every idle second of that game. What an unbelievable win. I had already slipped into deep depression, and not it’s pure jubilation. I might get alcohol poisoning today. It’s not even noon here!
Fantastic!!!! Got to let em in now. I feel like Dancin!!
let’s go buckeyes and clean up the mess at 9-9 and make our selection a little clearer.
Hail! Hail! never been more proud. awesome win.
The question now is, how many times am I going to watch this game in the next 4 hours?
Did you all notice Manny pushing Grady into position in the first half when — once again — he went the wrong way on a screen?
Just a note for the “Why doesn’t Kelvin play more?” question. His teammates know the answer to that.
What are the current BTT Seeding scenarios now with only PSU@Iowa, PU@MSU, NU@OSU, & IU@UW left?
As much as I wanted to scream out for Grady, I held my tongue on this one. Would we have won with Grady in the game? Maybe Beilein deserves some credit for sticking to his guns. We can talk about how he’s coached us out of games, but it’s far more probable that he just coached us into the Big Dance for the first time in 10 years. We were 10-22 last year. Amazing.
chris – did you notice kelvin contribute very solid minutes creating turnovers playing great on the ball/in your face defense, while also playing with poise on offense? he broke the press and meanwhile our team got back into the game. did you also notice that every player that got minutes on both teams made mistakes?
bottom line is merritt, lee, and grady all gave solid minutes today and all deserved the playtime they got. quit trying to harp on grady just to pad your argument on umhoops.com. same goes for everyone that thinks grady is always the answer to everything.
Why is Beilein NOT being talked for coach of the year after this turn around?
I have to respectfully disagree Avery….Go Northwestern. In a 4 way tie between us, Minny, OSU and NW, Michigan comes out on top with the 4-2 record. That gives us an opening round game against Indiana rather than Iowa. I think the scenario where we play Iowa and Penn St. is intriguing, but I’d rather play the worst team in the big ten to really seal our bid. If we lose to Iowa in the opening round and enough bubble teams make a push in conference tourneys, we could be right back on that edge of the bubble.
Besides, it just feels more natural to root against the buckeyes.
Kudos to Beilein for continuing to believe in LLP. Certainly, a lot of us were wondering if he should still see the floor. He carried this team for long stretches today.
Seth Davis on CBS just said that “Michigan punched their ticket, they got their big win on the road, they’re going to the tournament.”
beilein should definitely be talked about for coach of the year ill agree with that as well
avery queen…..llp play was solid but we could have sealed that game up with a better play than a long distance manny 3 and how about the iowa game which would have possibly locked up a tourney birth 3 games ago instead of another long ass manny 3………long distance 3 point shots when all we need is a 2 doesnt make sense to me
that is one of the reasons beilein bothers me………i just dont care for some of his thoughts some times……however michigan making the tourney is a coach of the year guarentee or should be at least
Just a side note, but did anyone else notice that Colton Iverson didn’t play today? Or if he did, it was very little. Not sure what happened there, but it doesn’t matter now! We’re Dancincg!