Wednesday Notes & Links

Dylan Burkhardt
on

Bubble Viewers Guide

Here is a quick run through of what bubble teams are in action tonight, root for the teams in bold. A lot of long shots on the list but a lot of them are at home as well.

  • North Carolina at Virginia Tech, 7PM ESPN
  • Boston College at NC State, 7PM ESPNU
  • Miami at Georgia Tech, 7:30 PM
  • Georgia at Kentucky, 8PM ESPN360
  • Florida at Mississippi State, 8 PM ESPN360
  • Brigham Young at Wyoming, 8PM
  • Wisconsin at Minnesota, 8:30 PM BTN — Your guess is as good as mine on any motivational issues for Saturday’s game but Wisconsin looks to be in and Minnesota’s resume still needs work. I’d go with Wisconsin.
  • Texas A&M at Colorado, 9PM ESPNU
  • Air Force at UNLV, 10 PM
  • Avery Queen

    nice big ten reffing right there.

  • jgunnip

    A+ shot selection by Wisconsin there imo

  • Ken in Las Vegas

    Landry, didn’t you learn anything from DeShawn?

  • Drew

    Good got let’s hope we don’t go down to the wire in this building. I don’t think we have the experience to handle this environment. We can barely close out a home game that goes down to the wire.

  • IX

    What a game! Probably the best Big Ten game this season. Saturday is probably the biggest basketball game for both of these teams in over a decade, us since 1998, them since 1997 Final Four.

    I’m honestly a little bit scared to play in this atmosphere Saturday. I hope those kids are superhungover.

    Hughes ouch, looks like it’s over.

  • jgunnip

    I think you gotta put Minnesota in even with a loss to us Saturday.

  • Redwings8831

    I would say Minnesota needs one more win, either against us or in the tournament. Hopefully Illinois can beat Penn State tomorrow.

  • Giddings

    The atmosphere was impressive tonight but Minnesota as a team was not. They have three guys on the team who can hit perimeter shots (Westbrook, Joseph, and Hoffarber), two big soft freshmen (Iverson and Sampson), an athletic swingmen who don’t seem to know what to do with the ball (Johnson and Carter), and a PG who is worthless on offense unless teams overplay him on the perimeter and he can penetrate.

  • IX

    Deshawn can have a day inside Saturday if he wants it. If we can shoot well from 3-point land Saturday I love our chances!

  • gpsimms

    it’s madness! how much does having the big ten network rule??? Can we all have a moment to sit back and appreciate how awesome this week has been/will be, and all thanks to the bigten network.

  • Redwings8831

    Texas A&M won against Colorado.

  • Giddings

    Well a routine road win against the worst team in the Big 12 may have just turned into an invite to the NCAA Tourney for A&M due to all the other bubble losses.

    As long as they get a win over Missouri on Saturday or a win in the first round of the Big 12 Tourney the Aggies should be in.

  • rlc

    I would be very amused to see a 6 way tie for 4th place in the conference, but I don’t think Wisconsin would be the best quarterfinal matchup for us…

  • Tom Too

    I remember when Beilein was mentioned for the Kentucky job….wondering if they wished they would have pulled the trigger on him…especially if we make the Big Dance. Which is tougher: Getting UM into the Dance or coaching Kentucky out of it? I remember when all Rick Pitino had to do was walk into a high school gym to get a player and walk into a college gym to get a win….

  • Michigan Student

    How is Northwestern’s RPI still on 74?

    Going into the conference season ther rpi was 10, muchhigher than both Wisconsin’s and Michigan’s. Now all 3 teams have the same conference record, playing virtually the same schedule, and Northwestern’s RPI is 40 and 20 spots lower than these teams. The RPI continues to not make any sense.

  • Some updated RPIs from WarrenNolan

    Michigan 46
    UCLA 23
    NW 71
    Purdue 34
    Minnesota 32

    UF 53, Kentucky 78
    Miami 54, Va Tech 61

  • jgunnip

    In the case of a six team tie the H2H totals would be
    4. Minny 6-4
    5. Wisc 5-4
    6. Mich 5-5 (0-1 vMSU)
    7. OSU 4-4 (0-2)
    8. NW 4-5
    9. PSU 3-5

  • Michigan Student: Northwestern has the third most RPI top 50 wins in the Big Ten… When do they start getting bubble talk?

    Northwestern also has 15 games against top 100 teams versus Michigan’s 20. They also have 2 losses to the 100-200 range as well as 8 games against RPI 200+

  • rlc

    jgunnip – if Minnesota finishes 9-9, they’ll be:
    vs. UW 2-0
    vs. UM 0-2
    vs. PSU 1-1
    vs. OSU 1-1
    vs. NU 1-1

    total 5-5

  • jgunnip

    Michigan Student,

    I don’t remember what NW’s RPI was but I’ll just guessimate that their RPI movement is the effect of the RPI of all their opponent’s up to that point have also fallen.

  • rlc

    Also, Wisconsin is 6-3 vs. the rat pack (0-2 vs Minnesota, 1-1 vs. Northwestern)

  • rlc

    So I think the seeding in a 6 way tie for 4th would be:

    4 UW 6-3
    5 UM 5-5 0-1 v MSU 1-1 v UI 1-1 v PU
    6 Goldie 5-5 0-2 v MSU 1-1 v UI 0-1 v PU
    7 tOSU 4-4 0-2 v MSU 0-2 v UI 0-2 v PU
    8 NW 4-5
    9 PSU 3-5

  • Redwings8831

    In case of a six team tie, Wisconsin would still be the #4 seed. What happens with Minnesota, Michigan and Ohio State. All will have a .500 winning percentage. Does it go to best record against MSU or best combined record for each team against the other two teams? None of the three beat MSU so I guess it would go to the next best team (Illinois). Michigan and Minnesota are both 1-1 against Illinois and Ohio State is 0-2, which would make them the 7th seed. For the Purdue comparison, Michigan is 1-1 and Minnesota is 0-1. Michigan would be the 5 seed and Minnesota would then be the 6. Northwestern would be 8 and Penn State would be 9.

  • jgunnip

    blah, thanks for the correction rlc. too much pen and paper tonight.

    redwings, the next tie breaker would be winning % against MSU, however the big ten considers 0-1 > 2-0 so we’d finish 5th.

    combined record against the remaining tied teams is not part of the tiebreaker criteria.

  • jgunnip

    man this thing needs an edit option.

    0-1 > 0-2 obviously

  • Redwings8831

    From the Big Ten Conference Tie-Breaking Procedures:

    b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).

    From that, I assumed that having a winning percentage of 0.00 (0-1 or 0-2) would be considered the equal.

    http://bigten.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/archive/120408aae.html

  • rlc

    Right – the way I read it, UM, Minnesota, and tOSU all remain tied based on their .000 winning percentage against Sparty. The next tiebreaker is record against the second place team, then record against the third place team. UM gets fifth place because of their .500 percentage against Illinois and Purdue (the second and third place teams). We beat Minnesota when the tiebreak gets to “record vs. Illinois”, no matter whether the Illini finish second or third. We beat OSU when the tiebreak gets to “record vs. second place team,” since the Bucknuts didn’t beat any of the top 3 teams.

    Minnesota beats OSU based on their record vs. Purdue.

  • Giddings

    This is fascinating stuff. So we could land anywhere from the #5 seed to the #9 seed (if we lose on Saturday and NW beats OSU).

  • rlc

    Oops, now I screwed it up. We beat Minnesota when the tiebreak gets to “record vs. Purdue”, because the Gophers didn’t beat Purdue.

    Goldie beats Brutus when the tiebreak gets to “record vs. Illinois”.

    Now, who’s up for figuring out the other possible ties and tie-breaks?

  • Michigan Student

    I’m not trying to say Northwestern deserves at large consideration. Rather, I am trying to figure out how their rpi was absurdly high during the nonconference season, and after achieving a 9-8 big ten record, their RPI has dropped 64 spots.

  • rlc

    OK, I think I’ve exhausted either the possibilities or my patience:

    Two way tie
    7 Michigan 9-9 2-0
    8 Minnesota 9-9 0-2

    Three way tie
    6 Michigan 9-9 3-1
    7 Penn St 9-9 2-2
    8 Minnesota 9-9 1-3

    Four way tie
    6 Michigan 9-9 4-2
    7 Ohio St. 9-9 3-3
    8 Northwestern 9-9 2-4 (1-1 v MSU)
    9 Minnesota 9-9 2-4 (0-2 v MSU)

    Five way tie
    5 Michigan 9-9 5-3
    6 Ohio St. 9-9 4-3
    7 Penn St. 9-9 3-3
    8 Minnesota 9-9 3-5
    9 Northwestern 9-9 2-5

    It seems bizarre that UM wins every possible scenario except the six way tie…

  • rlc

    Oops, I left out:

    Two way tie
    8 Michigan 8-10 2-0
    9 Northwestern 8-10 0-2

  • Redwings8831

    I’ve thought about a couple more, but don’t feel like going through them now. Like a 3 or 5 way tie which would include Wisconsin instead of Penn State. There might be a couple more.

  • rlc

    Oh, that’s right. Here are those:

    Three way tie
    6 Michigan 9-9 2-2 (1-1 v PU)
    7 Wisconsin 9-9 2-2 (2-0 v PSU 1-0 v OSU)
    8 Minnesota 9-9 2-2 (1-1 v PSU 1-1 v OSU)

    Five way tie
    5 Wisconsin 9-9 4-3
    6 Northwestern 9-9 4-4 (1-1 v MSU)
    7 Michigan 9-9 4-4 (1-1 v PU)
    8 Minnesota 9-9 4-4
    9 Ohio St. 9-9 3-4

  • JimC

    Man I hope all these predictions are not in vain. I’m still pretty worried about Saturday, still thinking if we lose that we’re out. MN is solid, and rested or not, the barn is one of the hardest places to play.
    Prove me wrong M!

  • ryan

    how do those tie breakers work? I know for a two way tie it is head to head matchups but what is it after that?

  • gpsimms

    read through the comments, ryan. your question has been answered/linked in exhaustive detail.

  • UMQuasi

    I’m confused now, both ESPN and the Big Ten Network shows Northwestern above us in the standings. According to all of these posts, we have the tiebreaker over them

  • Giddings

    UMQuasi, the default “tiebreaker” for those sites is Overall Win/Loss Percentage, which NW edges us slightly on at 17-11 instead of 18-12 (by less than 1%). It has nothing to do with seeding for the BTT.

  • Giddings

    Lunardi says Michigan has moved into the field for now: http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3954548&name=ncbexperts

    Katz makes the case for Northwestern (6 Top 50 wins!): http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3953853&name=katz_andy

  • rlc

    OK, one more possibility:

    Four way tie
    Wisconsin 9-9 4-2
    Michigan 9-9 3-3 (1-1 v UI)
    Minnesota 9-9 3-3
    Penn St. 9-9 2-4

  • rlc

    Oh, they’d be 5,6,7,8 seeds in that scenario…