- On the Bubble? Cheer for Wyoming Saturday
Gasaway breaks down New Mexico’s bubble situation - Tiebreaking Procedures
Reference for seeding, by my calculations if Michigan wins they should be a 7 seed, if they lose they should be an 8 seed - Final MVC Reality: Beware Creighton
Gasaway looks at the MVC and Creighton’s at large chances - Crashing the Dance Updated Bracket
Michigan moves back in as a 10 seed - A Four Pack For Wednesday
Bracketology 101 takes a look at tonight’s most notable bubble games - Badgers in town for a Border Bubble Battle
From the Barn previews tonight’s Wisconsin/Minnesota game - Why Penn State?
Brian looks at Penn State’s resume; Penn State isn’t in the clear or anything a loss this week would probably put them in a world of hurt.
Bubble Viewers Guide
Here is a quick run through of what bubble teams are in action tonight, root for the teams in bold. A lot of long shots on the list but a lot of them are at home as well.
- North Carolina at Virginia Tech, 7PM ESPN
- Boston College at NC State, 7PM ESPNU
- Miami at Georgia Tech, 7:30 PM
- Georgia at Kentucky, 8PM ESPN360
- Florida at Mississippi State, 8 PM ESPN360
- Brigham Young at Wyoming, 8PM
- Wisconsin at Minnesota, 8:30 PM BTN — Your guess is as good as mine on any motivational issues for Saturday’s game but Wisconsin looks to be in and Minnesota’s resume still needs work. I’d go with Wisconsin.
- Texas A&M at Colorado, 9PM ESPNU
- Air Force at UNLV, 10 PM
Kind of random how the end of the Big Ten season has turned into a single/double elimination tournament among you all, the Gophers, and Badgers.
Good warm up for next week I suppose.
Wow, we moved in without playing. We should play less often.
Seriously, what troubles me about this MN game is that they’ve only lost to MSU & PU at home. Plus peaking or not, M is still weak on the road.
By my calculation, UM can be the 6 in the BTT if PSU loses both this week (Ill, @ Iowa, definitely possible) and Mich beats Minn. That would force a 3 way tie for 6th and UM’s 3-1 record against the other two, topping Minnesota’s 1-3 and PSU’s 2-2. That would be nice as it would probably create a Indiana – Illinois Thursday Friday which I like better than the other options.
Favors so far from North Carolina leading Va Tech at the half and NC State leading BC at the half and Ga Tech leading Miami in the first half!
Northwestern looking good against Purdue, up 9 with 5:34 to go. Not sure if that helps or hurts since we beat NW twice, but a Purdue loss may drop them outside the RPI top 25.
We want Purdue to win… a loss here (unless they can beat MSU and make a run in the BTT) would be one less Top 25 RPI win for us on Selection Sunday.
Miami getting blown out at the half. Bracketology has them at a 11 or 12 seed. Are they out with a loss?
Yea, but you know Purdump will eventually get back into the top 25, especially with a win over Sparty this weekend.
Its official, Michigan is the only Big Ten team other than Iowa and Indiana who didn’t beat any of the top 7 big ten teams on the road.
Northwestern wins… Dunno what to think about that… There is the potential for a huge tie at 9-9.
AG2 – Hopefully that changes on Saturday (Minnesota is currently 7ht).
Andy – What happens if your scenario plays out and then Northwestern beats Ohio State. There would be a five way tie at 9-9. Could Michigan get the five seed if that happens?
Darn. Although my optimistic side says that if Purdue can somehow beat Sparty on Sunday and get back into the RPI Top 25, this whole situation would be better for us. Hard to imagine NW working their way into the Top 50 though, unless they win at OSU.
watching these bubble scores makes me wonder if anyone wants to get in this year. BC, VA Tech, Miami are all in very serious trouble
I went through Andy’s scenario above (assuming Minnesota beats Wisconsin tonight and Northwestern beats Ohio State on Sunday) and the records between tied teams are below. Wisconsin would finish 4th in this scenario.
#5. Michigan: 5-3
#6. Ohio State: 4-3 (Only played PSU once)
#7. Penn State: 3-3 (Played OSU and NW once)
#8. Northwestern: 3-4 (Only placed PSU once)
#9. Minnesota: 3-5
Thus, there is a possibility (although slim) that Michigan could have the #5 seed in the tournament. If Wisconsin would some how lose to Indiana and the rest of the scenario remained the same, there would be a six way tie for seeds #4-#9.
NC State defeats BC
The consensus right now is that Michigan needs 20 wins, but if the scenario above happens and we get a first round bye in the BTT, then would we still need to win one more? The way I see it is that being the 5th best team in the second best conference should be enough, but I’m no expert. Is this likely if the tie occurs?
Losses by Va Tech and Boston College… Good start. I don’t see how BC’s resume is any better than ours honestly.
Miss St, BYU, and Miami are all down and Kentucky is up 2 at the half against lowly Georgia.
I don’t know what the fascination is with 20 wins… I don’t think it is that big of a deal honestly.
If we were a 5 seed somehow then we’ll be a lock because a loss to the 4 seed on Friday would not be a bad loss. The reason most people keep saying 20 is because we need that Thursday win because it’d likely be against a team like Iowa or IU. A loss to NW isn’t a bad loss, but sure as hell doesn’t help.
I’ve decided that we want Minnesota to beat Wisconsin tonight.
You’ve heard me say this a lot recently, but I’m gonna keep saying it – we need to max out our Top 25/50/100 win count. If Minny loses tonight and on Sunday to us, they will almost certainly drop out of the Top 50, and our win count vs. the Top 50 would drop from 6 to 4.
If you were comparing two teams on Selection Sunday with similar RPIs, SOS, etc. and one was 4-9 vs. the Top 50 while the other was 6-9, the choice is obvious.
Miami (FL), UK, Florida, and Texas A&M all losing right now, wow! Minnesota up 23-16 at half.
This is looking like it could be a ridiculously good night for the Wolverines’ Dance hopes!
The table is being set for us. Let’s win Saturday pleaseeeeeeeee.
I’m torn about the Minn game going on right now. I understand the argument that a win vs. Wisconsin could favor us, but I also wouldn’t mind seeing them suffer a heartbreaking loss to their archrival. I’m not sure they could bounce back from that.
Maybe we can hope for the “Michigan effect”… A huge win followed by people proclaiming they are in and Minnesota taking their foot off the gas
Is it just me, or do bubble teams suck this year? It seems like every night more bubble teams lose tan win, even to inferior opponents.
Down go the Canes. Talk about a 2-day meltdown for ACC and Big East bubble teams.
So does this loss drop Florida out? Is Kentucky now out too? Can’t get them all though, looks like BYU is going to win.
What the hell is going on tonight????
Also Penn St and Illinois are not impressed by the defensive efforts in the Wisco-Minny game.
BYU is an 8 or 9 seed in many brackets, so I don’t know if we can really say a bubble team has won tonight.
jgunnip, what is going on? My guess is that the angry Michigan Basketball hating god has been appeased somehow…
Gators blow a chance for a road win, but if Georgia holds on it would be an even bigger blow to Kentucky.
West Virginia won tonight so they go from borderline lock to definite lock.
I’m watching the gamecast on ESPN. Georgia has had 2 defensive rebounds and then turnovers in the last 30 seconds.
Georgia misses the first of a 1-1 but gets the rebound… They are trying to give it away, but KY doesn’t want it.
Miami, Kentucky, and Florida all lose to bad teams tonight… Wow.
BYU wins but I don’t think that is a huge deal.
Gillepsie is in trouble IMO. UGA had 0 road wins and an RPI in the 200s.
Let’s get a Colorado win to cap off a great night on the bubble.
Note to the team: force Al Nolen to take perimeter jump shots on Saturday, play tight D on Lawrence Westbrook, and body up Colton Iverson. It’s our recipe for a W.
what a night for the bubble teams! Michigan controls their own destiny. Win and IN!
So what bubble teams this week haven’t lost and are feeling good like we are? Providence? Penn State?
We may very well move up in brackets tomorrow just based on the fact everyone else is losing.
Texas A&M and UNLV should pull off wins tonight. Overall though, what a night!
Wisconsin/Minnesota is going to go down to the wire!
Texas A&M is only up 3 on a god awful Colorado team. One to keep an eye on.
Hey Dylan, any chance we could get some CILs over the next couple of weeks?
LOLtastic losses for Kentucky and Florida. I can’t be convinced that either of those teams should be in. Florida only has 2 top 50 wins and has only won win against LSU/Tenn/SCar/Kent in conference. Horrible.
Kentucky only has 3 top 50 wins and, like florida, is now 8-7 in a very down SEC (You could argue the MWC is better this year). They are 3-3 against LSU/Tenn/SCar/Kent, but now have 3!! losses to 100+ RPI, two of which came in Rupp. They beat West Virginia and Kansas St OOC and lost to Miami. Their next best rin RPI-wise OOC is Lamar (192).
Hard to imagine to imagine the SEC only getting in 3 teams but it’s going to happen unless the Florida/Kentucky winner makes the SEC finals I would think.
Come on, Minn/Wisc, let’s have an overtime thriller! Better yet, two overtimes!
Turn on Minnesota/Wisconsin now if you don’t have it on!
I still have no idea what I want to happen in this game.
Wow Minny…
Wow, Wisconsin is almost as bad at managing endgame situations as we are.
Refs giving the Gophers the home court love at the end here. I’ll take it though.
A&M down five FWIW
nice big ten reffing right there.
A+ shot selection by Wisconsin there imo
Landry, didn’t you learn anything from DeShawn?
Good got let’s hope we don’t go down to the wire in this building. I don’t think we have the experience to handle this environment. We can barely close out a home game that goes down to the wire.
What a game! Probably the best Big Ten game this season. Saturday is probably the biggest basketball game for both of these teams in over a decade, us since 1998, them since 1997 Final Four.
I’m honestly a little bit scared to play in this atmosphere Saturday. I hope those kids are superhungover.
Hughes ouch, looks like it’s over.
I think you gotta put Minnesota in even with a loss to us Saturday.
I would say Minnesota needs one more win, either against us or in the tournament. Hopefully Illinois can beat Penn State tomorrow.
The atmosphere was impressive tonight but Minnesota as a team was not. They have three guys on the team who can hit perimeter shots (Westbrook, Joseph, and Hoffarber), two big soft freshmen (Iverson and Sampson), an athletic swingmen who don’t seem to know what to do with the ball (Johnson and Carter), and a PG who is worthless on offense unless teams overplay him on the perimeter and he can penetrate.
Deshawn can have a day inside Saturday if he wants it. If we can shoot well from 3-point land Saturday I love our chances!
it’s madness! how much does having the big ten network rule??? Can we all have a moment to sit back and appreciate how awesome this week has been/will be, and all thanks to the bigten network.
Texas A&M won against Colorado.
Well a routine road win against the worst team in the Big 12 may have just turned into an invite to the NCAA Tourney for A&M due to all the other bubble losses.
As long as they get a win over Missouri on Saturday or a win in the first round of the Big 12 Tourney the Aggies should be in.
I would be very amused to see a 6 way tie for 4th place in the conference, but I don’t think Wisconsin would be the best quarterfinal matchup for us…
I remember when Beilein was mentioned for the Kentucky job….wondering if they wished they would have pulled the trigger on him…especially if we make the Big Dance. Which is tougher: Getting UM into the Dance or coaching Kentucky out of it? I remember when all Rick Pitino had to do was walk into a high school gym to get a player and walk into a college gym to get a win….
How is Northwestern’s RPI still on 74?
Going into the conference season ther rpi was 10, muchhigher than both Wisconsin’s and Michigan’s. Now all 3 teams have the same conference record, playing virtually the same schedule, and Northwestern’s RPI is 40 and 20 spots lower than these teams. The RPI continues to not make any sense.
Some updated RPIs from WarrenNolan
Michigan 46
UCLA 23
NW 71
Purdue 34
Minnesota 32
UF 53, Kentucky 78
Miami 54, Va Tech 61
In the case of a six team tie the H2H totals would be
4. Minny 6-4
5. Wisc 5-4
6. Mich 5-5 (0-1 vMSU)
7. OSU 4-4 (0-2)
8. NW 4-5
9. PSU 3-5
Michigan Student: Northwestern has the third most RPI top 50 wins in the Big Ten… When do they start getting bubble talk?
Northwestern also has 15 games against top 100 teams versus Michigan’s 20. They also have 2 losses to the 100-200 range as well as 8 games against RPI 200+
jgunnip – if Minnesota finishes 9-9, they’ll be:
vs. UW 2-0
vs. UM 0-2
vs. PSU 1-1
vs. OSU 1-1
vs. NU 1-1
total 5-5
Michigan Student,
I don’t remember what NW’s RPI was but I’ll just guessimate that their RPI movement is the effect of the RPI of all their opponent’s up to that point have also fallen.
Also, Wisconsin is 6-3 vs. the rat pack (0-2 vs Minnesota, 1-1 vs. Northwestern)
So I think the seeding in a 6 way tie for 4th would be:
4 UW 6-3
5 UM 5-5 0-1 v MSU 1-1 v UI 1-1 v PU
6 Goldie 5-5 0-2 v MSU 1-1 v UI 0-1 v PU
7 tOSU 4-4 0-2 v MSU 0-2 v UI 0-2 v PU
8 NW 4-5
9 PSU 3-5
In case of a six team tie, Wisconsin would still be the #4 seed. What happens with Minnesota, Michigan and Ohio State. All will have a .500 winning percentage. Does it go to best record against MSU or best combined record for each team against the other two teams? None of the three beat MSU so I guess it would go to the next best team (Illinois). Michigan and Minnesota are both 1-1 against Illinois and Ohio State is 0-2, which would make them the 7th seed. For the Purdue comparison, Michigan is 1-1 and Minnesota is 0-1. Michigan would be the 5 seed and Minnesota would then be the 6. Northwestern would be 8 and Penn State would be 9.
blah, thanks for the correction rlc. too much pen and paper tonight.
redwings, the next tie breaker would be winning % against MSU, however the big ten considers 0-1 > 2-0 so we’d finish 5th.
combined record against the remaining tied teams is not part of the tiebreaker criteria.
man this thing needs an edit option.
0-1 > 0-2 obviously
From the Big Ten Conference Tie-Breaking Procedures:
b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).
From that, I assumed that having a winning percentage of 0.00 (0-1 or 0-2) would be considered the equal.
http://bigten.cstv.com/sports/.....08aae.html
Right – the way I read it, UM, Minnesota, and tOSU all remain tied based on their .000 winning percentage against Sparty. The next tiebreaker is record against the second place team, then record against the third place team. UM gets fifth place because of their .500 percentage against Illinois and Purdue (the second and third place teams). We beat Minnesota when the tiebreak gets to “record vs. Illinois”, no matter whether the Illini finish second or third. We beat OSU when the tiebreak gets to “record vs. second place team,” since the Bucknuts didn’t beat any of the top 3 teams.
Minnesota beats OSU based on their record vs. Purdue.
This is fascinating stuff. So we could land anywhere from the #5 seed to the #9 seed (if we lose on Saturday and NW beats OSU).
Oops, now I screwed it up. We beat Minnesota when the tiebreak gets to “record vs. Purdue”, because the Gophers didn’t beat Purdue.
Goldie beats Brutus when the tiebreak gets to “record vs. Illinois”.
Now, who’s up for figuring out the other possible ties and tie-breaks?
I’m not trying to say Northwestern deserves at large consideration. Rather, I am trying to figure out how their rpi was absurdly high during the nonconference season, and after achieving a 9-8 big ten record, their RPI has dropped 64 spots.
OK, I think I’ve exhausted either the possibilities or my patience:
Two way tie
7 Michigan 9-9 2-0
8 Minnesota 9-9 0-2
Three way tie
6 Michigan 9-9 3-1
7 Penn St 9-9 2-2
8 Minnesota 9-9 1-3
Four way tie
6 Michigan 9-9 4-2
7 Ohio St. 9-9 3-3
8 Northwestern 9-9 2-4 (1-1 v MSU)
9 Minnesota 9-9 2-4 (0-2 v MSU)
Five way tie
5 Michigan 9-9 5-3
6 Ohio St. 9-9 4-3
7 Penn St. 9-9 3-3
8 Minnesota 9-9 3-5
9 Northwestern 9-9 2-5
It seems bizarre that UM wins every possible scenario except the six way tie…
Oops, I left out:
Two way tie
8 Michigan 8-10 2-0
9 Northwestern 8-10 0-2
I’ve thought about a couple more, but don’t feel like going through them now. Like a 3 or 5 way tie which would include Wisconsin instead of Penn State. There might be a couple more.
Oh, that’s right. Here are those:
Three way tie
6 Michigan 9-9 2-2 (1-1 v PU)
7 Wisconsin 9-9 2-2 (2-0 v PSU 1-0 v OSU)
8 Minnesota 9-9 2-2 (1-1 v PSU 1-1 v OSU)
Five way tie
5 Wisconsin 9-9 4-3
6 Northwestern 9-9 4-4 (1-1 v MSU)
7 Michigan 9-9 4-4 (1-1 v PU)
8 Minnesota 9-9 4-4
9 Ohio St. 9-9 3-4
Man I hope all these predictions are not in vain. I’m still pretty worried about Saturday, still thinking if we lose that we’re out. MN is solid, and rested or not, the barn is one of the hardest places to play.
Prove me wrong M!
how do those tie breakers work? I know for a two way tie it is head to head matchups but what is it after that?
read through the comments, ryan. your question has been answered/linked in exhaustive detail.
I’m confused now, both ESPN and the Big Ten Network shows Northwestern above us in the standings. According to all of these posts, we have the tiebreaker over them
UMQuasi, the default “tiebreaker” for those sites is Overall Win/Loss Percentage, which NW edges us slightly on at 17-11 instead of 18-12 (by less than 1%). It has nothing to do with seeding for the BTT.
Lunardi says Michigan has moved into the field for now: http://insider.espn.go.com/esp.....ncbexperts
Katz makes the case for Northwestern (6 Top 50 wins!): http://sports.espn.go.com/espn.....=katz_andy
OK, one more possibility:
Four way tie
Wisconsin 9-9 4-2
Michigan 9-9 3-3 (1-1 v UI)
Minnesota 9-9 3-3
Penn St. 9-9 2-4
Oh, they’d be 5,6,7,8 seeds in that scenario…