I think a lot of things have changed like you were saying from the first match up and the number one thing being our defense. If you consider how lousy our defense was and that they were incapable of missing I feel like we can expect better. I also feel like (don’t have stats to support) that Sims has really been great in the past 6 games or so. And like you were saying Stu definitely has.

As well as we played against Purdue and as badly as we need this win Wisco needs it just as much and probably are the better team. Don’t see us winning but doesn’t mean we can’t.

Side note: I know people love to hate on Bilas but all-in-all he’s a pretty good announcer and I really like him and Knight together. Both certainly understand the game and share good insight. With Knight you get no BS and with Bilas a very logic or pragmatic approach.

I think our A game might be able to take this one, but I question whether it will be there. There’s always the sense that we only play well when our backs are against the wall. But, do you think Wisky will shoot as well as they did in A2 (especially at the end of the shot clocks)? I really doubt it, especially the way we’ve been playing defense lately. It looks to me that this will be down to the wire. Now that doesn’t mean it will be easy to win, we seem to be super unclutch on the road at the end of 2 of our 3 close games (that one being IU). I think this will come down to our ability to maintain ourselves mentally down the stretch: making free throws, limiting turnovers and of course making a number of field goals. Keeping in mind that in the last 3 games these are the things that have haunted us, even with 2 wins. The fact that Minny beat Wisky on the road gives me confidence that we have weaponry to win this game but I personally think it will come down to our poise. A win tomorrow would show a great deal of progress in that arena.

By the way, B10 Network tonight shows M as a 7 seed in the big 10 tourney playing 10 seed Iowa in the first game.
Apparently that’s if the tourney was held now.

Also, prediction: we will lose at WI.

We struggle with a lot of big bodies, and that’s their specialty. Buzzcuts, and big, slow, corn-fed bodies.

I think this game hinges on the officiating and I’m not talking about bad calls. I’m talking about whether or not the officials let the big, slow, corn-fed, buzzcuted, nonathletic, sloths of Wisconsin grab, push, bump, slash, knock, and hammer our guys in the paint.

If they do, the game is an ugly 48-40 loss. If they don’t, the game is a pretty 68-64 loss.

Yes, we lose either way, but at least the latter will be fun to watch.

i really think it will be a close one tomorrow. My heart tells me we pull it out, but my head says we lose a heartbreaker. Lets hope we can pull this one out down the stretch….60-58 wisco…i hope im wrong!

Hey Dylan … for anyone interested, I’ll be hosting a liveblog of tomorrow’s game at my site (http://aceofsports.blogspot.com). Hopefully I won’t be a curse like the previous liveblogs, but I couldn’t live through a big game without some friendly, biased banter between U-M fans. I’ll be standing by tomorrow at 1:30.

UCLA pulls out another road win (at Cal). They may move back into the RPI top 25.

First, my optimistic side:
We are definetely a completely different team than the one that lost to Wisky in Ann Arbor. CJ is going to have to play lockdown D on Hughes, he absolutely killed us with his buzzerbeaters. Also, Peedi had a bad ankle in the first matchup and all the Wisky players were blowing by him.

Realisticly:
Manny is not gonna get any calls at the Kohl center. Expect a repeat of his 3-13 performance in Ann Arbor. 63-58 bad guys. It’s unfortunate that the home and away games with Wisky were not switched, because if the rematch were in Ann Arbor we probably win.

I have a good feeling about this game. If we play anywhere near the same level that we did against Purdue, we win. It will be tough though. 54-51 Michigan!

Nobody expects us to win this one. Nobody. If we can find a way to get an early lead, I like our chances. It seems like when we play on the road we always come out slow. We have to hit early shots and set some sort of tempo. Like everyone has said, Manny most likely will struggle. His game is based on driving and getting to the stripe. That won’t happen at Madison. We have to hit shots. Plain and simple. Stu, Novak, Lee, LLP, and Merritt, nothing has changed and he will be the backup pg, have to give us huge production. The wildcard in this game will be Gibson. With the huge frontline of Wisco, Gibson is going to play significant minutes. He simply must give us another prescense down low. Call me crazy, but I still like our chances. This team seems to be peaking at the right time, and theres no reason why we can’t pull of 2 huge wins in a row.
BLUE 59 Wisoconsin 56

With Purdue and UCLA both moving back into the RPI Top 25 teams, we now have 4 wins vs. the RPI Top 25. Are there any other bubble teams that come even close to that?

As far as the Wisky game I agree that a lot will depend on the officiating…

Michigan wins if:
- Deshawn puts up 20 points, close to 10 boards, avoids foul trouble, and plays 30+ minutes.
- Manny commits less than 4 turnovers and scores at least 15 points.
- 3PT percentage is over 40%
- Outrebounded by less than 6 (last time we were only outrebounded 30-26)
- Prevent Bohannon and Luer from getting hot from beyond the arc.

It will take Michigan’s “A+” game to win tomorrow. Wisconsin wants this win to assure themselves of an NCAA berth, but we still need it more than them. Michigan played very well last year in Madison and almost pulled off the shocker in the final minute.

This Wisconsin team is not the same as those in the past. They have some good players, but are not as great as some past Badger teams. This team has lost a few games at home, but choked late in the 2nd half with a lead, costing them the game (Minnesota and Purdue games in particular). I think this game will be decided by who makes the least amount of mistakes in the final four minutes. If I had to make a prediction, I say Wisconsin wins by 5. Michigan knows they have to show up, but I feel the Badgers get a call or two to go their way and swing momentum in their direction at the end. I hope I’m wrong.

GO BLUE, Beat Wisconsin!

Damn IX, that is a good list of four criteria. Ssd part is that I don’t see that happening. Hopefully we pull the shocker.

that Leuer character seems to have our number, had a great game against Mich last season at Chrisler, we have no one who can match up with perimeter bigs

so according to KenPom, we have a 43% chance to win one of the last 2.

Raiderfan, agree that Gibson really needs to show up.

Now the obvious–we’ve been awful on the road all year (NW’s gym is so small it’s almost neutral).
WI by 8.

I think its a long shot, but I can’t stop thinking about how good it will feel if they win this game. A win means that NO MATTER WHAT we will have at least a decent chance on Selection Sunday. (As opposed to losing the next 3 and having zero chance.)

I think we match up horribly with Wisconsin and we are a bad road team. For Michigan to take the next step in rebuilding, they will have to get better on the road next year. It would be awesome if they could get an early start on that.

I think we are going to run our stuff and you are going to see a TON of backdoors and Peedi short range jumpers from the foul line area. Novak will have 10 rebounds. We play the best game of the year. We win by 10 points because we make our foul shots at the end….

For some reason I either seeing us win a nail-biter, or just losing in a total blowout. If Manny doesn’t try to do too much and jack up 3′s early in the shot clock or force bad passes, we will be competitive and (I think) pull it out. However, if he does the aforementioned things, the rest of the team will fall apart and this game will be over by halftime.

Michigan 53
Wisconsin 48
Both Zacks have career games and Manny looks like the Big 10 Player of the Year we thought he was in December.

or…

Michigan 44
Wisconsin 68
Peedi is the only one who can score any points, CJ gets overwhelmed on defense, and Manny had a triple-double with points, rebounds, and turnovers.

Hope it’s that first prediction!

just think, had we held on against IA last sunday, we’d be playing this game right now to improve our seeding… ugh still a thorn in my side…

Though if we had beaten Iowa, we probably would have lost to Purdue since our backs wouldn’t have been against the wall.

Don’t expect many backdoor cuts against Wisconsin. They’re more than likely going to pack the lane with some sort of zone defense. The key will be if Peedi can show off the moves from the Purdue game vs. Wisconsin. Keeping in mind this is Wisconsin’s senior day, and that no team tailors its style of play toward Big Ten officiating than Wisconsin, it will require us to out shoot them from 3 point range.

UCLA and Purdue moved back into the RPI top 25. That is four very good wins for Michigan against RPI top 25 teams…

4 wins over the RPI top 25! Wow, I wonder how many teams have done that?

For once I hope Hightower is there. We could use a tightly called game in this one cause I agree if Manny (or LLP to a lesser extent) can’t get any calls in the lane Wisco will be able to extend their D and then I think we’ll see a lot of the I’ve got a hand in my face but gonna jack it up anyways Manny or Stu shooting from way too far away. Also have to get Sims a lot of early touches to try and keep him in his rhythm.

I bet Hightower is not at our game. How can he be when Mich St-Illinois is on CBS and will draw a much larger following for Ed. A victory today will be difficult to say the least. We need Bohannon to be off and we need StuD and Zach to be on. There won’t be alot of room to move in the paint. We need them to miss shots so we can score off breaks because once they set up, Deshawn will have no room to move. Plus they have been off for a week so all in all things look stacked against us.

One other thing I want to say. At the Purdue game I could not help but think wow Purdue has way more talent than us. I think Beilein has done a fabulous job with a very thin roster.

Agree with Merlin that Hightower will likely be doing the Illinois/MSU game (he did the Purdue/OSU game yesterday). My guess is that we’ll get the same crew that did Iowa/NW yesterday, which included the ref that called the ridiculous charge on Manny in the Purdue game.

Nice, we already have Gus Johnson calling the game on BTN. I’d love to get Eddy officiating the game but I just hope Burr doesn’t show up.

The biggest proof of how bad B10 officiating is that which refs do this game will have the biggest impact on our chances.

Gus Johnson will have little to be excited about in this one. And I forgot that Wisconsin still has a home game vs. Indiana so their senior day is next week.

If its not Ed Hightower, it could end up being either Ted Valentine or Jim Burr. I used to like Ted Valentine until that atrocious officiating vs. Iowa last weekend.

[...] Game 30: Michigan at Wisconsin Preview Today’s undercard (2:00, BTN). [...]

Wisconsin just has too much experience and too much size for our team even if that one guy with the beer brewer sounding name doesn’t play. While we have a lot of confidence heading into this game, which is winnable, I just don’t see a W happening for us.

My prediction is Wisconsin by a baker’s dozen.

sorry to ask….does anyone have a link to online stream?

Please no overtime in East Lansing… Ugh.

Lets go Spartans!

Nothing but net!

Maize unis on the road, here we go.

Well, if Sims can’t even handle Landry, how’s he going to handle their ACTUAL big men?

Not the start we needed. 8-0, nothing going on offense or defense…

wisc is making our D look childish

note: do NOT talk about wisconsin shooting the lights out to start. make no mistake, they are shredding us right now…and everyone shoots 90% on layups

Yup, the start looks just like the first game, Wisconsin getting tons of wide open looks from close. Need much better defense to have a chance.

clearly outsized but no excuse for all the layups

If we could put Deshawn and Gibson on the court at the same time I don’t think it’d hurt.

That travel with 15:15 left was the only time Wisconsin didn’t score on a possession. I really don’t believe Wiscconsin is that good defensively. They’re just slow and they take advantage of the way the game is officiated.

Gotta get at least ONE stop today at some point. Frustrating start to the game.

I feel the way Manny is playing now he can put up 30 and we’ll still lose by double digits.

hey-yo! gibby

harris hitting his 3′s is good sign,
now we need the d to become settled

How many layups can we give up? Yikes.

At least Manny is bringing it on offense. Just need to get some stops, it’s tough to come back against these guys.

At least the shots are starting to fall. Now get some stops! If they keep effortlessly dropping it over you, then deny the entry pass.

does kenpom keep a %fouls statistic? i am absolutely certain that gibson leads the nation in fouls per minute played…some are undeserved but i suppose his reputation preceds him

absolutely no reason we should be getting beat off the dribble.

I’ve never seen a team rebound that poorly.

can we lose the refs’ asscam?

How does this team come out so flat, and effortless in this game??? No defense.

And that will probably be the last we’ll see of LLP today

This game is basically an exact replica of the first game.

when was the last time LLP did anything ????!!! he’s killing us and giving us absolutely nothing

actually, i think our offense is running a little better than in the first game…i believe, at this point, that we can win. by this point in the last game, i was 100% certain we would lose

” Come on JOE!!!. What the h*ll is that!!”

Dylan you nailed it. I was really hoping that Wisco might take us lightly after beating us at Crisler but they’re just too well coached.

That is Wisconsin’s second 3rd chance points.

26-25 Wisconsin. We’re back in it.

Got to get better on the glass but I just feel like we are getting dominated and we’re only down 1.

see? whatd i tell you guys? we needed the stops, but the offense is getting looks much better than it was in ann arbor

CJJJJJ!!!!

I like the ball movement

manny driving and then kicking out
will destroy wisc’s def

usually he shoots

The shots are fallin!

On the floor? Weak.

Manny is playing GREAT. Driving, kicking, shooting, rebounding, he’s doing it all.

gpsimms: You’re right, the offense does look very good. They are getting good looks most of the time down the floor despite getting torched on defense.

antwright sighting….if he hits a 3, we def win

where’s CJ’s d? ? ?

3 on cj

CJ got burned there trying to go for the steal, can’t cheat on that and leave Trevon wide open.

All things considered, I’ll gladly take a 2 point lead into the half. We easily could have had an even bigger lead if it wasn’t for those two late threes. We are going to have to play better defense in the second half though.

At the half, it looks like hitting the 3′s has made it harder for Wisconsin to crowd the lane with their many many big slow white dudes.

“does kenpom keep a %fouls statistic?”
Yes, he does – FC/40

“i am absolutely certain that gibson leads the nation in fouls per minute played…”

No, he doesn’t. He leads the Wolverines, but he barely makes the top 5 in Big 10 schools in Michigan alone:

Ibok 6.6
Green 6.2
Gray 5.6
Lucious 5.3
Gibson 5.2
Roe 5.1

well we’ve been in this position before…

I didn’t come here to hate on a player, but CJ needs to step up. I counted at least 8 points due to his mental breakdowns so far. I see that some noticed the 3 he gave up. here are the three I’m talking about:

1. Early on a guy goes back door and CJ is snoozing. Easy layup

2. The 3 pointer that has already been mentioned. CJ didn’t fight through the screen enough, then over-pursued. Easy 3 pointer

3. Simple pass to the wing and CJ didn’t close out in time.

In a close game like this, 8 points is HUGE.

I’m proud of the way they came back after getting down 8 early, and by 12 a couple of times. Let’s hope the second half defense picks up.

Given the importance of this game I’m very surprised with some of the lineups I’ve seen out there. Wright getting minutes? Grady-Merritt-Douglass-Novak-Gibson/Sims? Oy….

i not hating on CJ either
but i think that having Grady play
IMO would add fresh legs on def and off
plus we wants to prove to beilein he belongs
maybe?

I can’t help but wonder what dirty tricks the badgers will pull out in the 2nd half.

Krabbenhoft is so tall that he can go over the back and not get called.

5-0 Wisconsin start in the second half. Trevon Hughes loves hitting big three pointers.

Need to get a basket here and settle down to get this sloppiness out of our system. We are seeing a little bit of the bad side of Manny Harris, need the first half Manny back.

Why do I have a feeling this game is going to give me a heart attack.

Uh oh, Manny forgot the shot clock. I guess he needs to be benched for the rest of the game.

STOP HUGHES/LANDRY!!!!

jesus where is the help defense?

Trevon Hughes is killing us… Just can’t stop him. I know CJ is struggling but I have a hard time believing Merritt or Grady is going to do much better.

why don’t we put manny or novak on hughes

At least the announcers are kind enough to point out all of the grabbing and holding…

Two points in the first 8 minutes is less than ideal. The game just got really physical in a hurry and the whistles can’t keep up. All of that offensive flow from Michigan in the first half is gone.

LLP for three!

nice hustle

Hughes with the soul-crushing and 1.

Can’t Beilein wait until AFTER we retake the lead to bench both sims and harris?

Needed to get them some rest to play them the final 8. And Landry’s And-1 is a killer.

Novak picked a great time to take it to the hole for the first time!

Well, here we go. We need everything to drop for us.

Its just so irritating when you know benching those two at the same time is like a green light for your opponent to go on a huge run.

I’d rather hughes go to the line than hit a dagger 3.

Wow, just wow. Sims pretty much cost us the game.

That might be just a little harsh AG2… He made some very questionable decisions but I don’t think he “lost us the game”.

Yeah, I’m just frustrated because he had no business taking those 3s. In any case, I hope the Big Ten realizes that if they don’t start calling fouls games in the 40s and 50s will continue.

Well I didn’t expect to win this game, and I thought it would be a wider margin than this. Maybe that’s why this loss is so tough.

This one stings.

I don’t mind sims 3′s especially the first one, the second one was a little out of rhythm. I thought CJ pretty much lost us the game on a couple fronts. He played awful defense, Hughes got anything he wanted all day. Second his offense was less than spectacular. I thought he didnt run the offense and distribute the ball very well other than a nice bounce pass to sims. oh well, we get a week off and its again backs to the wall

Well, it is disappointing to lose a big game that we certainly had a chance to win. I am, however, more confident than ever that we’ll win in Minnesota. It’s against a team worse than Wisco, at an arena that is not as menacing, with a week’s rest.

The Minnesota game may be a play-in game. We’ll find out next weekend just how big of a factor the rest between games is. Since the beginning of the final stretch of 6 games, the results have fallen right in line with the days of rest. 5 games ago, I had this game written off as a loss, so to come close (especially with Wisconsin having a week of prep time) is better than expected.

The updated records are 14-2 with 3+ days of rest and 4-11 with 0-2 days rest. Let’s hope that trend continues

Pretty accurate prediction on the outcome of the game made by me at 2:27AM earlier this morning.

The Minnesota game is the biggest game in Michigan Basketball since the 1993 title game, in my opinion, considering what has happened the last 16 years to this program. Win, and we only need to win the first BTT game to get in. Lose, and we’ll need at least 2 wins in the BTT to get in.

We have a full 5 days starting tomorrow to fix any problems and prepare for the Gophers. I really hope the team is ready for the challenge ahead.

Good call. One nitpick: we’ve lost 12 games overall, not 13.

That 2nd 3 by Sims was definitely stupid but Manny also should have tried to blow by Krabbenhoft again. I thought Sims had a very good performance and hard to be critical of one bad decision.

Bottom line is we just can’t close on the road. I don’t know what it takes to do it but we don’t have it. Got 5 days to figure it out.

We didn’t play bad. In fact, the first half had to rank as one of our better ones all year. Poor shot selection did us in early in the second half – and Wiconsin are just tough sumnabitches. Ryan’s a great coach.

Why does Belein leave Novak in all game like he is the most valuable piece to the puzzle? Novak is all heart and hustle, and right now he is not giving us anything outside of that. I love the kid competitive spirit and basketball IQ, but I still cant figure this out

Merritt really gave us nothing while he was in the game, no idea why he was in.

Gibson was in for at least part of our run in the first half. I thought he was doing well. I still dont understand why we don’t use him more against big teams.

I know Beilein has really raised the program this year, but the fact that we settled for those 3-pointers in the last two minutes is not good coaching. I’m sure I’ll take some heat for saying that, but that has to be at least partially on him.

So who do we want to win the Wisconsin at Minny game on Wednesday?

If Wisconsin wins, it looks like they’ll finish 11-7 in the conference, with Minny dropping to 8-9. At that point you’d think that Minny is in the same position as us, absolutely needing a win on Saturday. It would be Senior Day for them with their backs against the wall, but if we win that would clearly put us ahead of Minny in the pecking order.

If Minny wins, they go to 9-8 and Wisconsin likely finishes 10-8. In this case, Minny would feel a lot more comfortable about their chances to get in the Tourney, although people will still probably call the game against us a “must-win”. Also, even if we win, there will be some considerable debate as to who the “7th team in” from the Big Ten should be.

rlc, it was hyperbole, i guess…my point was gibson gets a lot of fouls. most on the team, apparently, thanks for looking it up and confirming my point.

I thought the first 3 from Sims was fine, though he’s not necessarily the guy you want taking it. The second was inexplicable, and I have a hard time believing Beilein was happy about it or encouraged it. What surprised me was that we didn’t take a TO before that to set something up.

Jay: Who would you play instead? Shepherd? Wright? Those names sound like profanity next to Novak.

I also think down the stretch it was evident that we either tried to get the ball to Sims down low or have Manny take Krabbenhoft off the dribble. We got screwed on a no call and Sims made some decisions Beilein clearly didn’t approve of. Don’t think you can fault Beilein too much. He can’t force the players to make the right decisions and those decisions are exactly why we don’t close teams out on the road.

first of all, let’s remember what wisco did to us on our court. I was expecting a blowout today, all of the metrics we’ve looked at earlier this year were pointing to blowout as well: road+quick turnover after a good game+backs not against wall+worst matchup for us in the B10=should have been worse than it was.

The good overall effort, to me, indicates how far this team has come this year. I know most people think that after the ‘hot start’ this might be a disappointing position to be in, but I honestly believe this team has improved a lot during the B10 season. Today’s effort means to me the Purdue game was not a spike in performance, but that we are actually better!

Now, poor shots from DeShawn, I agree…but you definitely can’t blame Beilein. Krabbenhoft really stepped up the d on Manny in the second half, and the reffing didn’t help either. After two iso-type plays for Manny, and Manny’s getting mauled twice, and not getting a call, then I guess you can’t try to set Manny up to drive anymore, right? What would you do? I guarantee you, Manny was not going to get a call from the ref in the last 2 minutes.

Anyway, this game was leaps and bounds better than the one in AA, and I think we’re set up to win the Minny game. backs against the wall+long prep+decent matchup for us+less difficult road environment=we can win.