There are 16 days, 2 games, and a conference tournament left before Selection Sunday. With their win last night over Purdue, Michigan at the very least have put themselves on the bubble.
The latest bracketology reports are encouraging but these really are nothing more than a “whos hot” list in my mind. If Michigan loses Sunday I am sure they will be “out” next week but if they go on to beat Minnesota I think they will be back “in”. The value of these mock brackets is limited until the final week or so of the season so you have to take them for what they are: an estimate of the bracket if the season ended today.
Lunardi has Michigan as the last team in and Crashing the Dance also has Michigan in the field. Lunardi’s bracket is very interesting because Minnesota, Penn State, and Michigan are all right on the edge. Michigan and Penn State are the last two teams in while Minnesota is the first team out. These last couple games are absolutely huge and it looks like at least one Big Ten bubble team is going to be very disappointed on Selection Sunday.
The Michigan Resume
- Record: 18-11 (8-8)
- RPI: 46
- SOS: 11
- RPI Top 50: 5-8
- RPI 50-100: 5-3
- RPI 100+: 7-0
- Quality wins: UCLA (neutral), Duke, Illinois, Purdue
- Bad losses: Iowa
- Last 10: 5-5
There are some real bright spots on Michigan’s resume including 10 wins versus top 100 teams and five against the top 50. They also have managed to go the distance really without a bad loss, Iowa hurt but they look like they could end up in the top 100 anyways. The issue for Michigan is that they have a lot of losses as well as two road games on deck.
Win one of the final two and Michigan is in business. Their RPI will probably jump a few more spots with a split putting it in the low forties. They might need to beat Northwestern in the first round of the BigTen tournament to be safe but that would be a very solid resume. Despite their inconsistency this year Michigan has a big RPI win in November (UCLA), December (Duke), January (Illinois), and February (Purdue).Lose the last two games and the going gets tough, the RPI could stay in the top 50 but it would be time for some magic in the Big Ten Tournament.
Scenarios
- Beat Wisconsin, Lose to Minnesota: This would result in a 9-9 conference record and also give Michigan a big road win. They would probably want to win their first round Big Ten Tournament game but I think this is a pretty good situation.
- Lose to Wisconsin, Beat Minnesota: Same feelings as above.
- Beat Wisconsin, Beat Minnesota: Lock. 10-8 in conference with 7 wins over top 50 teams. Stone cold lock. Then again the odds are not very good to say the least.
- Lose to Wisconsin, Lose to Minnesota: Need a Big Ten Tournament run if they can’t get it done on the road. This would likely give us the 8 seed which means we would play Northwestern and then Michigan State. If they could win those two they might be in the picture but they will need some luck.
It’s pretty simple, win one of these last two games and Michigan is in good shape heading to Conseco. Winning the first game of the Big Ten tournament isn’t necesarrily going to help but it doesn’t hurt, that’s the key there.
The best chance for a win has to be at Minnesota. Michigan handled them pretty well in Ann Arbor and even though Minnesota is a much better team at home, it’s still a game where Michigan certainly should have a chance. Wisconsin hasn’t been invincible at home this year (losses to Texas, Purdue, and Minnesota) but it is still the Kohl Center.
Weekend Viewing Guide
The other bubble teams worth keeping an eye on in my mind are: Cincinnati, Florida, Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, Miami, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Providence, San Diego State, and Texas A&M. I’m sure there are a few I missed but that’s the core group to root against.
Here is a quick run through of who to root for this weekend. Clearly Michigan needs to handle their own business but a little help never hurts. Teams to root for are in bold. If I missed a game leave it in the comments and I’ll add it to the list.
- Georgetown at Villanova – Saturday, Noon ESPN
- Texas A&M at Iowa State – Saturday, 1:30 PM ESPN360
- Notre Dame at Connecticut – Saturday, 2PM CBS
- Arizona at Washington – Saturday, 3PM FSN
- Duke at Virginia Tech – Saturday, 3:30 PM, ABC
- LSU at Kentucky – Saturday, 4PM CBS
- Temple at Dayton – Saturday, 4PM
- Texas at Oklahoma State – Saturday, 6PM ESPN
- Indiana at Penn State – Saturday, 6PM BTN
- USC at Stanford – Saturday, 8PM
- SDSU at TCU - Saturday, 8:30 PM
- South Carolina at Vanderbilt – Saturday 8:30 PM
- UCLA at Cal – Saturday, 9PM ESPN
- Tennessee at Florida – Sunday 2PM, CBS
- Providence at Rutgers – Sunday, 2PM ESPNU
- Cincinnati at Syracuse – Sunday, 2PM ESPN360
- OSU at Purdue – Sunday, 4PM ESPN
- Maryland at NC State – Sunday, 7:30 PM
Links
- Let’s Look at sub-.500 Records in Conference Play
Not quite up to date and I’m not sure I agree with all the opinions but it’s interesting. USC, Texas A&M, Maryland, Cincinnati, Va Tech, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, and Michigan are the 8 teams he lists, at this point I would take Michigan before a lot of them but maybe I’m too biased? - On inconsistency (or the lack thereof)
KJ looks an consistency issues in the conference - Fresh & Peedi Foil Boilers 87-78
Some nice pics from MVictors - Manny Harris, DeShawn Sims keep promise of victory
“That’s the coach,” Harris said. “Can’t bump heads with the head coach, and like I said, I agreed with the decision.” - U-M springs back to life
Open Thread
This post will be the place for any bracketology talk over the weekend, at least until I get the game preview up. There is almost too much to keep track of here so if you have any added insight I would gladly listen. This definitely should be a fun weekend of basketball and at the very least it feels good that all of these games matter.
Don’t we want Indiana to beat Penn St?
Why would we want to root FOR Penn State? I realize that boosts their RPI and in turn ours, but wouldn’t any loss to a bubble team pave the way for us?
When you look at those scenarios, doesn’t the Iowa game (especially the officiating) just kill you? We would be 9-7 and in fourth place if we win that game and almost a lock.
http://michigan.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=917570
this is a great article from rivals
That’s a mistake. I bolded the wrong team. I’ll fix it when I get back to a computer.
Who knows, AC1997, that loss to Iowa was a very strong motivator for this team. If we had beat Iowa, then the Purdue game would not have been a must win, and we always seem to bring our best in a must win situation. This leads me to believe that we will lose to Wisconsin and then fuel the fire once more for a win at Minnesota. They are clearly
trying to give us all heart attacks, but I feel a spot in the tourney is our destiny.
Added a link to Andy Katz blog…. He thinks Michigan can make it at 8-10…
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn.....=blogEntry
Also there appears to be some server/database issues again, not sure why this keeps happening.
I like that Andy Katz. I like the way he thinks.
Consider the following:
Wisconsin has had the whole week off to prep for this game while Michigan will have had only today and tomorrow to get ready.
On the other hand, Minnesota has a game against Wisconsin before playing Michigan while Michigan gets the whole week off to get ready.
Just like you said before Dylan, it’s been a fun ride. Just being in the picture until March 7 or later has been a thrill compared to the last few years!
This site is so cool.
Yeah, AG2, as we all know, historically we are awful with limited rest/preparation. All we can hope is that we will still be feeling the adrenaline and riding the mojo wave after our big win. Maybe in this case we don’t want any time to cool off?
I should be going to see Moses Morgan playing in the Nevada State Finals tonight, so I’ll let you guys know what I see. I wrote a scouting report on Moses a few months ago that’s probably archived somewhere on this site if you have an interest in the fellow.
We talk a lot about how bad it sucks that we lost to Iowa, now that we know it would have all but locked us in, but think back to the SSU and Indiana games. If we had lost either one of those games I don’t think we would be in the picture right now. Those comebacks were some of the most miraculous I have ever seen! I guess we have to remember how lucky we are too sometimes.
Great point Ken.
As far potential games to add to the list, I know this is a lot but we want:
Niagara over Siena
Georgia Southern over Davidson
Utah over BYU
East Carolina over UAB
Loyola Mary over St. Mary’s
Colorado State over New Mexico
Nevada over Utah State
Canisius over Siena
Duquesne over Rhode Island
Illinois over MSU (keep Illinois in the Top 25)
Iowa over Northwestern (keep Iowa in the Top 100)
Northeastern over Old Dominion (keep N’Eastern in Top 75)
I guess I have a lot of basketball to watch.
Did anyone notice that Jay Bilas has been saying a lot of positive things about Michigan lately? Encouraging to see someone (especially him) on ESPN that doesn’t think that the Big East is God’s gift to the world.
Mike Valenti(hereafter referred to as the “Village Idiot” was saying on the Ticket today that Michigan must win both games and their BTT opener. Or, split the the two, “But you better make it until Sunday(in the BTT)” And of course he delivered this in usual tone that implies that you’d have to be a bleeping moron to think otherwise.
Well I must be moron, because he’s way off. 2 wins, puts us in period. A split probably puts us in too, but we better win one BTT game to be sure. Heck 8-10 with a trip to the BTT Finals might even be enough.
Honestly, I think the Village Idiot doesn’t know anything about college hoops. He proceeded to spout a bunch of other nonsense- Michigan has an RPI in the upper 50′s, and “no one outside of Indiana gets blown out more than Michigan in B10 play…6 of their 8 losses are by more than 15.”
As usual, the Village Idiot was wrong, but of course he can just say whatever he wants. He already irritates me with his style, but spouting out a bunch of BS drove my hatred to a new level. I’m not listening to that station anymore.
The Minny game is looking like an elimination game.
Split and then losing one more in the tourney brings the loss total to 13, that’s not good. We’re really 17-11 considering the DII win doesn’t count for the selection committee, only D1 wins count.
19-13 won’t do it in my opinion, 20-13 might not even do it, we have to get both games on the road.
Our best road win is against Northwestern, the committee isn’t going to like that. We’ve only had 2 road wins, Indy and Northwestern, the Oakland doesn’t count, it was at the palace.
I just can’t say enough bad things about Jay Bias…
If we split the next two and win the first BTT game, we’ll be in. Don’t worry too much about the record. Remember that we’ve played a tougher schedule than almost every other team in the country. Our SOS right now is 11 and it will be in the top 10 by Selection Sunday.
in case people didn’t ever see this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1yXXhAkkaE
pretty sure we’re gonna get hamboned on sunday
which senerio plays better into our favor? a win at Wisconsin and a loss at minn, or a win at minn. and a loss at Wisconsin, i would think the latter, because then at best we would have the same conf. rec, plus a sweep of them, tougher schedule, etc… so i owuld think we would get into the tourney before they would.
I don’t think it really matters, if we get to 9-9 we will be in good shape. Wisconsin actually has the higher RPI so that would probably help more. It’ll be interesting who wins Minnesota/Wisconsin as well.
BTW, here is the list of teams with 10+ wins versus the RPI top 100: Xavier, Clemson, Duke (14), UNC, Wake, MSU (15), Ill, Purdue, Kansas, Oklahoma (15),Connecticut (12), Marquette, Pitt (13),Nova, WVU, Memphis,Utah,Cal, and Michigan.
No other Bubble team has 00, there are several with 9 though.
I’ve always thought Valenti, and for that matter, most 97.1FM people, were spartan fans. Then again, doesn’t Matt Shepard have a show on 97.1?
Does anyone think that we might have a better shot at knocking off Consin Sunday, due to the fact that they beat us on our home court? We have already beat Minnetonka, so I think we need to step up and return the favor to ole Wisky.
20 wins is usually considered the magic number to get in, but that’s when you don’t have a very strong resume to back you up. I’m definitely leaning more towards an 8-10 birth over a 9-9 passover. But, the first BTT tourney game is definitely an important one to win in all scenarios.
Im not sure Lunardi really has UM as the last in, although the way its listed it does give that impression. The reason I think this is he has UM as a 11-seed and the other teams listed as last 4 in as follows. PSU 12-seed, Ok State 12-seed and Florida 11-seed. So UM is higher seeded than 2 of the 3 and the same seed as the other. I also noticed Miami Fla was lower seeded than UM in his bracket.
I think the actual seeds have to do w/ regions and pods. You can’t have teams in the same conferences meeting in the first or second round typically. Just a guess though.
I’m not sure exactly what will play out. I’d like to think the win yesterday will keep us going we will win these last 2 and stay on a roll and get in i think were in with 19 wins (minus the tech game) regardless if it comes in the BTT or regular season. Funny stuff on that hambone and if you see that you have to see this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related
HA. Let’s keep pounding it into Peedi and hopefully Manny can get some calls and Stu and Zack can drop some bombs these last few games. Go blue!
I read in one of Joe’s articles that teams are allowed to be bumped one line for seeding reasons like the ones Dylan mentioned. So, Michigan is a true 12 see, but can be bumped to a 11 if it makes the bracket go better.
If Michigan does make it, I would love to see them as an 11 or 12, especially a 12. I think those spots lend themselves to a little Sweet 16 run, as cpposed to being a 9 or 10 and getting hammered in the 2nd round.
This morning on Sportscenter the Gameday crew looked at Cincinnati, Providence, Maryland, and Michigan as the four big bubble teams. Digger and Hubert Davis put Cincy and Providence in, but left out Maryland and us. Shockingly, Bilas put in Maryland and us, but left out Cincy and Providence.
Very interesting…
Mith & AG2, Valenti is a spartan slappy. He’s the most entertaining when the spartans blow a big game. Wow I miss Stoney & Wojo.
If I lived by Bias, I’d put a burning bag of poop on his porch, ring the doorbell, and skedaddle….
I don’t like our chances for tomorrow. Short rest, tough home court, smart coach, veteran players, contrasting styles that usually puts the refs in one camp or the other (favoring the home team).
On the other hand, we’ll have a week to prepare for MN and the styles are similar so the officiating shouldn’t bias one way or the other too much.
I would put us and Cinci. It’s not surprising that Digger put Cinci and Providence in considering he’s a Big East slappie. Surprising that Hubert didn’t put Maryland.
Valenti will never give Michigan the credit it deserves in any sport. Only time he’ll say anything good about Michigan is the day of the game when they face Little Brother just to make Spartina look not as bad when they lose. His rants are tremendous though when Little Brother chokes in games.
20 wins overall puts us in no matter what. If we lose the next two games, then we’ll have to win 2 in the BTT. We’d likely face Northwestern on Thursday and Little Brother on Friday. If we win one of the next two, just need to take care of business on first day of the BTT. Looking at the rest of the Big Ten games remaining and the current standings, there’s about an 80% chance we face Northwestern or Iowa on day 1 of the BTT.
GO BLUE, Beat the Badgers!
Dare I take back my hatred of Jay Bilas? Did anyone see him on GameDay this morning pushing HARD for Michigan to be in… wow that was a shocker.
Don’t take back anything regarding Bias. Remember all of the love during the Duke game, only to stab UM in the back during Elbowgate (“Michigan is out of control”)?
The one thing that Gameday’s mock selection process showed me is how much personal biases come into play.
If you remove the team names from their resumes, I guarantee that Digger would have called for Providence’s resume to be the first one eliminated. However, his extreme Big East bias actually had him pushing for them to be the one team to get in. You saw the same thing with Hubert since he had just done Virginia Tech’s big win at Clemson for ESPN. And the same thing with Bilas since he did our win against Duke.
I wish I could say that the actual committee won’t be as biased (and I’m sure they won’t be as bad as Digger), but it will certainly come into play, considering that all of them are basically Athletic Directors or Conference Commissioners. For example, will OSU’s AD push for us because we’re in the Big Ten, or will he hate on us because we lost twice to them? Will UConn’s AD push for us because we played well against them and he knows Beilein?
Digger was nuts man. How can he possibly think Siena is more deserving. Their best win was Niagra! And then Digger saying what have we done recently? Beat Purdue…
I also don’t get Knight knocking the Big Ten so hard. Clearly I’m biased but I do not think that the ACC or Big East is head and shoulders better than the Big Ten.
Another good point Bilas kept pointing out was unbalanced schedules by some of the Big East and ACC wins…..Phelps and Knight seemed to be ignorning that.
Providence, IMO, has the easiest Big East schedules of all the quality teams in the league, so I dont think their 9-7 BE mark is any better than a 8-8 mark in the Big 10….at least on its face. Phelps and Knight seemed to miss that point.
I thought that was a great exercise on the pregame….i dont know about you guys but I was riveted by it.
And, shaking a little that I agreed so much with Bilas
I think that taking Va Tech over us would be reasonable but the other two not at all. And why would Digger vote to remove us first but then vote for us over Va Tech. Makes no sense. He’s probably tied for my least favorite ESPN personality with Mark May.
Tomorrow’s game is like a practice for the play-in road game at MN. Yes we’ll likely get hamboned tomorrow, but after that the players and coaches should really figure out how to mentally prepare for a road game and finally play strong on the road.
VT looks good, but they close with Duke, UNC and at FSU.
They’re on the cut line right now. How many of those games do they need to win to get in and feel secure about it, regardless of ACC Tourney results?
Well I gotta think either a win vs. Duke or UNC is enough. A win vs. FSU alone leaves them right where they are or maybe just a notch below. That final stretch is good news though although Va Tech fans are probably saying the same thing about us.
And yeah I too am looking more at the Minnesota game than the Wisco. I guess you never know though.
there is no reason to speculate at this point……no reason to talk about if they do this or do that, then they are in…….its as simple as this……win……win games and you will be playing in the tourney…….
providence has lost at home to northeatern,on a nuetral court vs. boston university and st. mary’s. they are 3-5 and have beaten 2 ranked teams. their rpi is 71, sos 36. the resume is a little weak.
a split in the next 4 games including btt and its 100%, 1 out of the next 4 and its 50-50.with at least 10 wins against top 100 it’s gonna take a lot of bad luck to keep michigan out.
I have to disagree with the point everyone is making that we have no chance at Madison. If you look back to the first game, if Manny gets any calls to go his way, and Trevon Hughes wasn’t playing out of his mind, we probably win that game. I like the way we match up, and if Peedi plays anything like he did against Purdue, I honestly like our chances. We are much quicker and more athletic than Wisco, and I like C.J. guarding Hughes alot more than Grady. Krabenhoft absolutely mauled Manny all game the first time and never got whistled for it. Bottom line, if Manny gets calls and Peedi plays like he capable, we could run away with this one. Anyone know whos officiating this one? Also, I believe if we win at Madison, we are DEFINETLY in, no matter is we lose at Minny, and the first game of the BTT. However if we lose, we will nedd to win at Minnesota and the first round of the BTT.
This gt/nova game is ugly.. Hopefully nova can pull it out and put a fork in GT.
Dylan, I was just about to comment on that game. It is brutal. Neither one of these teams look like tourney worthy teams. To bad ‘Nova has had such an easy Big East schedule. G’town looks horrible but ‘Nova is looking just as bad.
Wathcing Gtown-Villanova…it’s a great game by the way. With a win today over Villanova and wins to come over St. Johns and DePaul, how much do they have to do to make the tournament? Are they close to being on the bubble? They seem like they could make a run in the Big East Tournament.
As an aside, I am not convinced that the Big East is as strong as everyone makes it out to be. Villanova and Marquette are both near the top of the league, and I dont think either one is particularly outstanding (though they are obviously tournament-worthy). Pitt and UConn are elite, and Louisville is very good. Syracuse is good if inconsistent. Providence and Cincinatti are way overrated based on the fact that they have won a few conference games.
Call me crazy, but I think that some way or another Georgetown will be in the Tournament. They should win their next two games to finish 8-10 in the Big East with the #1 SOS and wins at UConn, at Nova, and against Memphis and Syracuse. The key was today’s game… with a loss today they would have finished 7-11 at best, and in that case I think they would have needed to make it to at least the finals of the Big East Tournament.
Illinois State over Creighton would help too.
I won’t call you crazy Giddings. Unfortunately you’re right. I can’t believe that G’town is still considered able to make the thing. There is no freaking way they should be in that argument. Their late season collapse, heck their second half of season collapse should dismiss them from any bubble. If it wasn’t for the Big East mythstique, they would be NIT bound.
If Georgetown wins out and gets into the quarterfinals of the BE tournament, they might get a bid.
If they win the Qfinal game, they will be a lock. At that point, they would have 20 wins, an 11-11 record in Big East Games and that SOS would be hard to overlook.
Ironically, their schedule works against them because its going to be a while before they get a shot at an impressive win again.
They have to win 4 more games, IMO, to at least be put in the conversation.
By the way, to follow up on my comment about biases on the committee, here’s a look at each member:
1) Michael Slive (SEC Commissioner) – SEC has been awful this year but this guy could lobby for bubble teams like Kentucky and South Carolina.
Jeff Hathaway (UConn AD) – Should have a good perception of us given our performance in Storrs and his knowledge of Beilein, but may push for bubble Big East teams like G’Town since they beat the Huskies.
2) Tom O’Connor (George Mason AD) – Doesn’t look like the Colonial is strong enough this year for any at-larges, fortunately.
3) Chris Hill (Utah AD) – May lobby for as many as 4 teams from the MWC, and they have decent cases. In reality it should be 2 or 3.
4) Dan Guerrero (UCLA AD) – Should have a positive perception of Michigan since we beat his team but may also push for Pac-10 bubble teams like Arizona.
5) Laing Kennedy (Kent State AD) – Maybe he’ll have a good perception of Michigan if he knows about the preseason scrimmage where we routed Kent State?
6) Stanley Morrison (UC-Riverside AD) – He went to Cal, but they’re safely in.
7) Eugene Smith (Ohio St AD) – May push for more Big Ten teams but probably doesn’t have a great perception of us since we were swept by OSU.
9) Lynn Hickey (UT-San Antonio AD) – She’s coached at Kansas St and Texas A&M, 2 teams squarely on the bubble… besides that, tough to say.
10) Mike Bobinski (Xavier AD) – May push for A-10 teams like Dayton, Temple, and Rhode Island, but it looks like the A-10 won’t get more than 2.
10)
Valenti is just a blow hard. He thinks if he talks down to everyone and has a lot of confidence, everyone will just fall in line with what he says. And, fortunately for him, he has a strong legion of slappies taht do just that (two of my good friends included). Don’t forget, after we beat UCLA (and before we beat Duke) he went on and on about how all UM had to do now was go 9-9 in the Big Ten and they were in, and if you thought any differently, you were an idiot. Now he says you’re an idiot if you believe that. It’s like being a weather man, make a prediction and go with it, no worries, no consequences, and you don’t have to admit it if you’re wrong!
The more I read and watch, the less confidence I have in Michigan being safely in with 1 more regular season win and a win in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament.
All I hear about is how Notre Dame and Georgetown are going to make a push to be on the bubble, and those programs both have names that carry some weight. Between those two, Cincy, and Providence, a couple are certain to make a run in the Big East Tournament and they will get a bid.
I agree that Georgetown will probably get in. Hopefully they slip up in one of their last two. If Michigan wins one of the next two they will still be in very good shape.
Georgetown’s RPI jumps to 40 with their win over Villanova. That was an absolutely pathetic game. GT turned the ball over on 38% of their possessions and Nova shot 36.7% eFG%. Both teams with TO rates over 30%, just bad basketball.
Thank you UConn. Notre Dame goes down by 7.
Did I really see someone say the g’town vs. ‘nova game was great? Wow!! Really?
It was hideous basketball, but exciting to watch. The crowd was really into it and it was close the whole way.
good to see purdue ripping osu apart. espn giving no love to the boilermakers once again with no HD.
Purdue’s win should move them back into the RPI Top 25, which definitely helps us… plus we’re now tied for 6th in the Big Ten.
Yea, Iowa’s loss knocks them out of the top 100 (104 now). It would be very nice if they can pick up a win down the stretch, especially against bubble teams like OSU and PSU. They have been playing decent ball with Kelly at the point so it’ll be interesting.
Glad to see V-Tech fall to Duke. Now hoping OSU will do the same against Texas.
I can’t believe I’m seeing this, but could IU take out Penn State at the Bryce-Jordan Center?
Basically five games that matter Sunday.
We need…
UM over Wiscy
Tenn over Florida
Rutgers over Providence
Cuse over Cincy
NC State over Maryland