Lunardi has Georgetown in at a #9 seed in his bracket. After that big loss to Louisville tonight, I’ve gotta think they drop out and make room for another squad. They’re 14-12 (5-10 Big East) and, despite the brutal schedule they play, I just don’t think that’ll cut it. I’d stack Michigan’s resume up against theirs any day of the week. We’ll see how Lunardi changes it in a few days, but I’ve gotta think G-Town falls off, especially if they lose at Nova on Saturday.

Well, now G’Town has to win out in the regular season. They’ll win their last two, so it all comes down to @ Villanova on Saturday. I don’t like their chances, which is good for Michigan.

Check out the top right side of the Bracketology page – Monday’s bracket was based on a simulated scenario in which Georgetown wins the Big East Tournament.

Good call,Giddings. I’m pretty sure Georgetown has been out in the otherwise projections.

I thought that simulation had an unusually high amount of zaniness. Georgetown and Minnesota won their tournaments, getting them into the field.(He said Minny would be out otherwise.) Also, Davidson and Utah State got upset in their tourneys and left out, although that really had no impact since neither got at-large consideration.

We’ve gotta get it done Thursday, plain and simple. A win at home against Purdue will do wonders for us, so we need to come out and get a W.

I know a lot of you guys keep saying we only need to win two more to secure our spot, but I think we need to win all three to actually secure a spot. Very few 19-win teams get at-large bids (usually no more than 2 but that’s an arbitrary number) and there aren’t even usually a ton of 20-win teams either. So we need to do work and win all three of these remaining games. Even though I don’t think we have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning at Wisconsin, a victory on Thursday would at least give us a bit of momentum going into that final stretch.

Just in case you didn’t catch this, Dylan:

http://www.freep.com/article/20090223/SPORTS18/90223026/?imw=Y&GID=xxyeTtLhKUkVPGDQC4yfj0LIp4aCq+8sw57MMKMGLFE%3D

From now on, I am going to agree with everything Tom Also says….I like his name…

Haha, yeah, it’s weird b/c I go by Tom (or some sort of similar moniker) on every other Michigan site I post on. But when I got here not only was there already a Tom, there was a Tom Too, haha. So I figured I’d keep it going with ‘Also’

Does tonight’s OSU vs PSU game have any effect on us? Is there any reason I should try to root for OSU?

Dylan: I know you’ve given up on the +/- for now, and that’s totally understandable given the time commitment involved. Just curious if you’ll revisit it in the off-season. I’m particularly curious as to +/- when both Lee and Merritt are on the floor.

If OSU were to win tonight, it would bump PSU down slightly, and if they keep losing then we might be able to overtake them as the 7th Big Ten team.

If PSU wins, they may creep closer to the Top 50 RPI, which would make our win against them look better. OSU would then be tied with us BT record wise but they are still somewhat safe.

In short, there’s no obvious team to root for tonight for our sakes. In that case, I’ll always root for PSU over OSU.

K that’s what I was thinking. Just making sure I don’t have to root for OSU. I don’t think PSU can get it done in Columbus however OSU has lost 3 straight. With a loss tonight they could see that go to 5 straight because they play at Purdue on Saturday. They’ll also have some trouble getting to 20 wins.

Hold Everything!!!!! Next year, with 6 freshmen and 3 sophomores, we might have the youngest team in the nation. Seriously. I wouldn’t plan on an outstanding year next year, with most of the team needing to adjust to JB’s “system.” That is a VERY young team. Add another Frosh if Manny goes pro of KG decides to bail on us. 7 Freshmen next year?????? Although, Big Ben will know the offense because of his participation during the Fall….

Sorry Giddings, but I’d have to disagree with you. I think OSU is in a safer position NCAA berth-wise than PSU is. Granted, PSU’s Big Ten record is slightly better, but it’s non-conference schedule is ridiculously weak. PSU has two good wins, Purdue at home and that Illinois win on the road. Other than that, they’re pretty soft. OSU beat Miami FL, Butler, and ND all right in a row early on. That’s in addition to a few good Big Ten wins. I’d say they’re pretty safe to get in. Two teams out of Michigan, PSU, Wiscy and Minnesota will get taken. The Big Ten will not get fewer than 6 berths. If Michigan beats Purdue, I think it’ll have to be Michigan plus one of the other three, even if UM loses their last two. That’s with the caveat of them winning their first round BTT game.

Yeah, I definitely think it’s in our best interests for OSU to win that one. OSU appears safe. PSU is on the bubble.

Not sure how safe OSU is… A home loss to PSU would put them firmly on the bubble. I would assume they also lose @Purdue and that gives them a best case record of 9-9.

It would be a big one for Penn State though and probably solidify their spot a bit more especially with a game against Indiana remaining.

I’m not suggesting that if OSU loses tonight, we could take their spot… but a big measuring point for Tournament resumes is the # of wins versus RPI Top 50. OSU is there already, but we lost twice to them… if PSU sneaks into the Top 50 and OSU falls out, then we pick up an extra win versus the Top 50 practically for free.

At Tom, Too:

Remember, McLimas will redshirt. Morgan will assume the roll of E-Pulla and will get very limited time.

I would expect something like….

G – Morris
G – Stuuuu
W – Manny Fresh
W – Peedie
C – Gibson

6 – Novak
7 – KG
8 – Cronin
9 – Vogrich
10 – LLP
11 – Morgan

I wouldn’t really consider Stu and Novak as simply “sophomores” given their amount of playing time. Although, Novak has worn down and shown mental lapses (elbow anyone?). Stu on the other hand has progressed greatly throughout the year, even becoming a solid defensive presence. Darius will have frosh mistakes, but you hope our depth at G will help this problem (seriously, look at all the guards, it’s ridiculous). Other than that, we start two seniors and a junior. Our big bench contributors will be either a junior (KG) or a RS sophomore (LLP) unless Darius isn’t ready to lead the way. I love our depth next year, if only Cronin wasn’t our #1 big off the bench (cringe).

Tom, Also

What makes Gibson ready to start at the 5 next year, but not this year? I’m thinking the younger bigs coming in will be more talented for the starting job…

Not Tom, but the reason Peedi and Gibson aren’t both starting this year is because of the lack of someone to back them up. Therefore, Beilein needs one of the two to back up the other.

What Giddings said. IMO, Gibson has the ability to start, but you can’t play both him and Sims at the same time without someone to back them up. Hopefully Cronin can provide that.

Don’t look now, but Pitt is getting its doors blown off by Providence.

How good is Cronin? I have never seen him play and haven’t really heard to much about him. Is he better than Gibson? He’s definetely better than Puls right?

YpsiTuckyBoy, that just made my day. I had an anger breakdown Sunday night, followed by alcohol, followed by a deep depression. But if M just needs to beat PSU and win the first BTT game, we’re in ?!

I’m just going to ASSUME that this is possible, while everyone else either explains it away or figures out all the possible outcomes.

If Penn State wins this one they are in IMO. They would be two big road wins in a row. With Indiana, Illinois, and @Iowa left they have some winnable games as well…

OSU is in trouble if they can’t hold on though. Two road games and NW at home.

Battle story is tough, his mom is sick and he has six younger siblings at home.

If Penn State wins, it could swap OSU with PSU in the RPI Top 50, changing our record vs. the RPI Top 50 from 4-8 to 5-6!

Then again, we’d also probably get passed by Providence, who is taking Pitt behind the woodshed as we speak.

I think the entire line-up is up in the air next year. Is Cronin the sixth man? Novak starting? How fast will Morris learn the offense and how much patience will JB have with him, considering the pressure to produce a NCAA team? Is Vogrich a better shooter than Stu???? Will KG be around? Will Manny? There are a ton of questions…..

But, the only question I am really concerned about right now is: Will we win on Thursday? That’s the biggie….

No but really is Cronin any good?

Everyone will put Providence in after this win just because it’s fresh in their minds that “a bubble team just beat the #1 team in the country”, but when you take a closer look at their resume they really aren’t much better off than we are.

Wins vs. Top 50: U-M has 4, Providence now has 2
Wins vs. Top 100: U-M has 8, Providence now has 5
Road/Neutral Wins vs. Top 100: U-M has 2, Providence has 1

Yea, their resume really doesn’t stack up… If Michigan wins two of their next three that will be 2 more top 50 wins. The 8/9 game of the BTT would be a top 100 as well.

Scenario #1 Michigan wins one of three down the stretch. Final standings look like this:

msu 14-4 – IN
purdue 13-5 – IN (assumes that this is Michigan’s one win)
illinois 12-6 – IN
wisconsin 11-7 – IN
penn state 10-8 – IN (but would need to win one game in the BTT)
ohio state 9-9 – IN (but would need to win one game in the BTT)
minnesota 9-9 – OUT (would need 2 wins in the BTT)
michigan 8-10 – OUT (would need 2 wins in the BTT)
northwestern 6-12 – OUT (would need to win the BTT)
iowa 6-12 – OUT (would need to win the BTT)
indiana 2-16 – OUT (would need to win the BTT)

This scenario sucks, but its not impossible. I am not thrilled about having to beat northwestern for a third time to get a matchup with a rested michigan state. However, that provides an opportunity to get 2 good wins – one a top 100 and the other a top 25 rpi win, respectively. I think in this scenario Michigan squeaks in the tourney.

Cronin will be a decent player. He effected the game with his size even when he was injured this year. I don’t think he will be a superstar but he is a good shot blocker and rebounder. He has a few post moves and should be able to draw some double teams which will open up shots for the rest of the team. It will be interesting to see how he moves after the surgery. He is not a stiff but he also isn’t overly graceful. I don’t know if his body can take 30 plus minutes a night just because of his size but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play 20 plus after next year when Sims is gone.

I think in that scenario, Minnesota probably gets in with 1 BTT win. Remember that they were undefeated out of conference with a neutral win over Louisville. If we get 2 BTT wins in that scenario we’ll be right there with them but tough to say.

Scenario #2 Michigan wins two of three down the stretch. Final standings look like this:

msu 14-4 – IN
purdue 13-5 – IN (assumes that this is Michigan’s one win)
illinois 12-6 – IN
wisconsin 11-7 – IN
penn state 10-8 – IN (would need 1 win in the BTT)
ohio state 9-9 – IN (would need 1 win in the BTT)
michigan 9-9 – IN (would need 1 win in the BTT)
minnesota 8-10 – OUT (would need to win the BTT)
northwestern 6-12 – OUT (would need to win the BTT)
iowa 6-12 – OUT (would need to win the BTT)
indiana 2-16 – OUT (would need to win the BTT)

This scenario is better, but how much better? I think similar to Ohio State, that Iowa matches up well with Michigan, but for slightly different reasons. Iowa matches up well because they can put 4 guys on the floor at the same time that can stroke the 3 (necessity to beat the 1-3-1), but they can also go big assuming Tate comes back and pound you inside with pick and rolls (necessity to beat man to man). I do think this is an easier path to the NCAA’s but definitely not a lock if they beat minny.

Don’t be so sure that wins in the Big Ten Tournament would help. The selection committee has been closing the bubble earlier and earlier every year. Remember, last year on the selection show they announced that they chose all the teams by Thursday of championship week and spent the rest of the time seeding.

I don’t buy that “bubble closing on Thursday thing”. I believe they choose a lot of teams but I think that a bubble team that makes a run certainly gets a boost.

Raiderfan, I see BC getting a lot of minutes next year. One thing that is overlooked with him is his shooting ability. Not to mention his ability to challenge shots more effectively, and protect the rim. Hes 7ft with long arms and huge hands. As fragile as we are inside this year, I dont know if you would want to redshirt Morgan, or Mclimans.? I think we will have a real dangerous line up next year barring any early departures or transfers. 2010 is the year for the athlete in my opinion. Wings, and a do it all PF. I have confidence in JB to get it done. I think slowly his recruiting ability will catch up with his strategic/developing ability.

PG- Grady/Morris/Douglass
SG- Douglass/LLP/Vogrich
SF- Harris/Novak/Person(JB loves walk ons)
PF- Sims/Mclimans/Morgan/puls
c- Gibson/Cronin/Mclimans

I cant see Darius starting over KG, at least not to start the season. But what a nice change up we will have at PG, with a smaller quicker KG, and a taller versatile Morris. Should be fun to watch.

jb makes espn college hoops page headlines:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=3929446
nothing new aside from the national attention.

the only positive i see out of the current situation is that going into iowa we all said we needed two games (one of them being iowa). and while having missed that chance if we still can get two wins the road win will be better than iowa would have been and should really solidify our bid. obviously winning at minnesota is a big if (as is purdue)

I still see Novak getting some minutes at the four when we want to go small next year, which I believe we will.

Also, what makes a 9-9 OSU team get in for sure. 3 road wins, best wins are over Butler, @ Miami, home against Purdue.

Nice little typo in that ESPN article about michigan. It says we might NOT make the tournament for the first time since 1998, and that will put a lot more scrutiny on Beilein’s decision to bench Manny if we don’t make it.

Haha… nice little flip there

Yeah probably so Kevin, but wouldn’t it be awesome if Novak grew about 3 inches over the summer.

Big wins by Providence and Boston College tonight certainly do not help the bubble situation.

Not a good night for our chances… although Georgetown’s loss last night helped, Providence’s win tonight puts them back in the picture, and I was really hoping that BC would lose to FSU. Creighton also came from behind to get a key win and Syracuse coasted at St. John’s. Florida did lose to LSU but I have a hard time seeing them out… our last hope for a boost is if BYU beats San Diego State.

Great second half by BYU helps our chances as BYU beat San Diego State 69-59 on the road.

I see Ben being JB’s pet project these next couple of years and really being a good player. I bet you that they work on his foot work every single day in practice and keeping the ball high. JB is fanatical about foot work. Remember the baseline move in the second half by Peedi at Iowa. The reverse pivot and fake and short jumper without dribbling? That was ALL Beilein right there. You will see Cronin do that next year. I am thinking he will be a 12 minute guy….

If we win all three of the final games, then we don’t have to worry about what other teams are doing……it’s that easy.

I am thinking Cronin’s body won’t allow him to play 12 minutes.

Yep, his body could be a major factor. It already is.

Cronin looked like an old man out there this season before his surgery. Of course, he should be a little more agile next season with a healthy hip.

Give him two years to fully recover and he will be good to go in 2011 ha

Cronin won’t be player of the year but, I believe what I seen of him earlyer this season he can come in get some blocked shots, rebounds and be a big body on someone. I didn’t realize he had he hip problem till I read about it on the net. Like I said before he’s off the crutches so alot will depend on how his hip is feeling and healing. It sure will be nice to have a 7 foot player in the line up against the rest of the big guys in the league. Take some pressure off the 2 Zack’s.

3 things:

1) Providence has two away games to finish the season, one very losable one at Villanova. They’re 2-7 against RPI top 50 and have a pathetic non-conference schedule. If they get in ahead of Michigan it will be a travesty.

2) Why is anyone even talking about Zach Gibson playing? He’s a poor man’s version of Graham Brown. If Cronin can’t get the starting gig over him, it’s not a good sign.

3) I don’t know what’s up with all the CJ Lee hating. The guy actually plays defense, unlike most players on this team. He plays til he barfs. If I’m Beilein, I care about setting a tone in my first few years in town. That starts with playing bust-a-gut D. Who cares if KG is much more of an offensive threat. If he wants to play, all he has to do is match Lee’s effort in practice and in game, and he’ll get PT. If not, it’s his problem. Beilein is a guy about principles, and hard work is one of those principles. Yeah, Lee is painful to watch on the offensive end, but he gives opposing PG’s a hard time (the exception being Kelly this past weekend).

Agreed w/ Gibson. I would think and hope one or more of the new big guys can outplay him for the starting roll and get the bulk of the minutes inside…IMO, he’s a no more than bench player next year unless he really improves his game

* I meant starting “role”

The only thing Gibson and Graham Brown have in common is that they’re both white big men from the state of Michigan.

Brown was a wide body, specializing in setting screens, fighting for rebounds, and muscling in layups when he got the ball close to the basket. Gibson is a finesse player (guard stuck in a center’s body) who struggles with setting screens (see the Iowa game) and getting rebounds but runs the floor very well and can hit a jumper all the way out to the three point line.

Calling Gibson a finesse player or a guard stuck in a center’s body is just laughable. The guy plays hard most of the time, but he is the second-worst 3-point shooter on the team and can’t do much outside of 8 ft. He does run the floor a bit better than Brown did, but doesn’t do anything else much better. Both play shorter than their height due to lackluster hops, get their shots blocked or altered fairly easily, and get taken by quicker post players with frequency. Many more similarities than differences.