Basics:
Who: Michigan (17-10) at Iowa (13-13)
Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA
When: Sunday, Feb 22nd, 5 PM ET
TV: BTN
Spread: Iowa by 1
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, Iowa KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)
Last Time: Preview / Recap
Iowa looks like a team that is falling apart, one that you can write off, but just last weekend they almost knocked off Purdue in Iowa City without Jeff Peterson and Cyrus Tate. The Hawkeyes have lost 9 of their last 11 games and have had to deal with all kinds of injury and personnel issues over the last several months. They still are not healthy and their once very efficient offense ranks tenth in the league when looking at only conference play.
Anthony Tucker was Iowa’s leading scorer early on but his season fell apart after a drinking related arrest, mono, and being ruled academically ineligible. Now Iowa is dealing with injuries to Cyrus Tate and Jeff Peterson. Cyrus is Iowa’s strongest inside presence but he has missed 10 of the last 11 games with a high ankle sprain. Lickliter and Tate don’t sound optimistic:
“Cyrus has always been a competitive person. A big heart. I just have to believe that (the injury) limiting him. There’s no question about it. He can’t tolerate the pain.”
“It’s something you can’t rush,” Tate said. “I’ve been impatient twice, and it’s cost me.”
Asked if this could be a season-ending injury, Tate said, “I’m not saying that. I’m still hoping I can be back.”
Jeff Peterson is the Hawkeye’s starting point guard who averages 10.6 ppg, 4.2 assists per game and shoots nearly 40 percent from three point range. Peterson missed last weekend’s game against Purdue but his chances sound a little better for playing this weekend:
“I hope to be back,” Peterson said. “There’s still a chance — I just don’t know how good.”
“Jeff is sore, (but) working hard,” Lickliter said. “And I’m hopeful because (the injury) wasn’t to the extent that it could have been. Now, I don’t know if he’ll be ready for Sunday, but I don’t foresee him practicing this week.
Without Tucker, Tate, and Peterson the Hawkeyes don’t have much. Matt Gatens is a freshman who can stroke the three ball (44.7% three point) and Jake Kelly is a versatile swing man who is pretty much a glue guy and does a bit of everything. Jermain Davis, Devan Bawinkel, Aaron Fuller, and Jarryd Cole round out the rotation but there really aren’t any playmakers or even potential playmakers in that group.
As a team Iowa really doesn’t do that much all that well. They love to take the air out of the ball and slow the game down and they are a good shooting team. They have hit 37.2% of their triples on the year but they are shooting only 34.2% in conference play. Similar to Michigan they love to shoot the three ball, 47.8% of their field goal attempts are three pointers. They do have some guys that can kill you from deep in Jeff Peterson, David Palmer, and Matt Gatens who all shoot over 39% from long range.
Iowa turns the ball over a lot, their turnover rate of 23.6% is second to last in conference play. They are also the worst team in the conference at forcing turnovers. These numbers shouldn’t come as a shock to Michigan fans because Michigan dominated the turnover battle in the first game, forcing turnovers on 30% of Iowa’s possessions and only coughing it up on 18.9% of their own. They don’t rebound well or do really do anything spectacular on defense.
This is a team that looks very beatable on paper. Carver-Hawkeye isn’t particularly hostile, and Michigan won there last year, but it is still a Big Ten road game. I worry about Cyrus Tate even if he is a long shot to play because he is a guy that killed Michigan last year (15.6 ppg and 9.3 rpg in 3 games). Jeff Peterson being out would be a gift for Michigan, especially because Iowa turns the ball over so often. The Hawkeyes have had plenty of time to prepare with 8 days of rest which is always good for a team thats trying to get healthy. They also have had plenty of time to watch film of the first contest between these two teams.
Pomeroy has Iowa winning 59-58 in a 56 possession game. I am cautiously optimistic but nervous at the same time. Let’s hear your thoughts, predictions, and in-game discussion in the comments.
Pre-Game Reading (updated til game time):
- Harris applauds his teammates
- Bubble News: Michigan Makes a Move
JamieMac on mgoblog breaks down who to root for this weekend - Kelvin Grady doesn’t sulk, steps up for Wolverines
More on Grady - Doughboy Howard finds it’s good to be needed
Pershing wins the PSL. Izzo and Beilein were both in attendance (picture) - Bracketology 2/20 Update
Michigan is in along with Penn State. That is 8 teams from the Big Ten if you are counting. - Borton’s Blog: Ready, willing and able ($)
Nice piece on Kelvin Grady
This would be a huge disappointment if we let this one slip away. This is the least talented team we will play the rest of the year and if we are truly the good team we think we are….we HAVE to win this one. I’m expecting a 65-55 type victory.
Well, Lunardi has us in. I guess it isn’t completely ridiculous to have 8 teams in because that’s what he has now. I think one team will play themselves out but no reason 7 can’t make it.
Ray McCallum was at the game last night vs Minnesota…Michigan making any head way with him?
Sam Webb was saying this morning that Michigan isn’t going after him too hard. He was arguing that there isn’t a big need for a pure PG in that class. Beilein goes after those 1-2 type PGs, with Darius Morris coming in next year and maybe a Brandon Kearney (pls pls) coming in the 2011 class.
That was from the WTKA morning show…not Scout. FYI
Dylan, MLive also has a pretty good Grady piece, with quotes.
http://www.mlive.com/wolverine.....steps.html
good teams win the games they have to win…….its as simple as that ……we will see if michigan is a good team and are ready to step up
Completely unrelated but I read this on the Purdue board, similar to the post game handshake with Beilein.
Tom Crean is a classless a-hole Reply
——————————————————————————–
Bo Ryan tried to shake hands and talk to him after the beat down last night, but The Messiah wanted nothing to do with it. Tried to just walk on by without making eye contact.Then he sat for two minutes at the post game press conference and gave short and terse answers.
Is there a bigger a-hole among the Big 10 coaching ranks? It’s widely known that he is not well-thought-of in coaching circles…why is it that IU only hires a-holes? Bobby Knight, Kelvin Sampson and now Tom Crean.
I guess they call it Ass-Embly Hall for good reason.
man i cannot get over losing to osu at home.
anyway. i know msu and northworstern were ugly but we really have been a whole new team on defense in the past 5 or so games. i think this propels us to a win in iowa and at least one more in the last 3 games (would be nice if it could be vs. minnesota).
i also agree with dave in that if we don’t win 2 more games then we just aren’t the team we hope we are and don’t deserve to make the tourney.
Looks like hummel might be out for the michigan game (and others) that obviously helps our chances at winning that game…although would love to play them at full strength.
It’d be nice to beat Purdue at full strength but at this point it’s just win, baby. The committee won’t discount our win or anything if Hummel doesn’t play, if they did then they’d have to do that for half of Purdue’s games this season.
Honestly, I don’t care if PU is at full strength or not. They played us without Novak and (for the last 18 minutes) Manny. I wouldn’t mind us catching a similar break.
A win over Purdue is a win over a RPI Top 25 team, regardless of Hummel. As far as Crean, I’m sure that him and Bo Ryan have history what with the Marquette/Wisconsin thing.
i just saw that will regan had many different coaches watching him tonight……..that hopefully is to little to late or we could be on the verge of a disappointment again…….does anybody know anymore about that?
I think we beat Iowa by 12 tomorrow and Manny goes off. Then I think we do indeed beat Purdue. The away games at Wisconsin, and Minnie are up in the air I believe. I am leaning towards a win at Minnie. I was not impressed with their bigs, and I think their youth might be a factor. I think both teams are beatable, it will be about what UM team shows up. We need to play like we want to get into the tourney for the first time in over 10 years.
http://www.mlive.com/wolverine.....wolve.html
Good interview the day after Minnesota game. The most interesting part in my opinion, is when Beilein talks about the future players in the program. He states he wants size and length, with four players on the floor between 6′4” and 6′8” and then a big center.
It should be interesting watching his program get built and progress.
We need Manny to step up and have a big game like he did against NW.
Beilein needs to throw bodies at the sore Hawkeyes.
It should be a tight game well into the 2nd half, but let’s home our depth can come through.
I think there is a strong correlation between if UM wins and how many days rest they have between games. I’m worried about a big letdown tomorrow vs Iowa with only a couple days of rest. Hope I’m wrong and UM realizes the importance of coming out and taking care of business.
Hey there M fans, for those not ensconced in the BTN footprint, anyone have an idea where I might be able to stream the game?
The BTN isn’t streaming the feed, and I haven’t gotten luck on myp2pforum.
Thanks.
Not sure where I heard this/how reliable it is, but there is supposed to be a trend that in away games manny/sims step up while at home games it’s more of the role guys. I thought about this and it seems to hold true. Any ideas why?
Doesn’t surprise me at all. Those guys have experience and they’re obviously the most talented players on the team.
In other news, the Big East bubble took a huge hit, with Cinci and Providence, and Georgetown all losing home games. Notre Dame won big at Providence, but will that be enough to get an 8th Big East team?
I’m watching UCLA/WSU on FSN right now and man, Klay Thompson is impressive. Even though we couldn’t quite reel him in, I think it’s another testament to how good JB is at scouting unheralded talent. Aaron Fuller has been a decent surprise for Iowa as well.
Giddings: Gordon Hayward, Joe Trapani, and Klay Thompson.
If we had one of those guys, we would be a much more well rounded team IMO. We were top 2 for Klay and Trapani.
Frustrating that UCLA lost again though…
UCLA just lost at home against Washington State. What does that mean for our tournament chances?
So Hummel is okay? How does a guy go from being possibly out for the season yesterday to playing today?
If we had Hayward, Trapani or Thompson we might not have taken Novak. We might have been more well rounded, but I really like watching Zack play so I don’t feel bad about missing on those three. I think we will have good roster balance starting next year.
UCLA’s loss today is disappointing from the standpoint that they were sitting at #26 in the RPI coming into today with an easy schedule to finish out Pac-10 play. If they could have taken care of business, they could have potentially moved into the RPI Top 25, which would give us 3 wins vs. the Top 25 instead of 2 (Duke, Illinois). As long as they don’t drop out of the Top 50…
Michigan holds at 48 in the RPI…
http://warrennolan.com/basketb.....e/Michigan
I dont think many of these bracketoligists realize how pathetic PSU out of conference schedule was. PSU would have to finish at least 2 full games ahead of UM in the conference standings to get a bid ahead of us. Right now, they are 1 game ahead and UM would dance before PSU. Go check out PSU schedule if you want to see what im talking about.
That RPI page above shows M at 16-10. Hey Warren, Michigan is 17-10.
JimC, the RPI doesn’t account for games against Division II opponents. Michigan beat Michigan Tech to open the season, which RPI doesn’t recognize.
I think UM going to the dance this year would be one of the major stories of the tourney. One, because we haven’t been there in so long and, two, because this is a year ahead of schedule. Most people, including me, thought this was a 16-win, NIT-bound team.
As ive posted before, the RPI is a total joke. Heres another example to illustrate the point. UAB (RPI-38) has beaten a total of 2 teams with RPIs under 100 and they have played the 66th rated schedule. UM(RPI-48) has 8 wins over top 100 teams and have played the 14th rated schedule. My question is why has the RPI become so accepted and unquestioned????? Heres the link http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_229_Men.html
It gets better. Utah, RPI 11, has a loss to a D2 school, Southwest Baptist. But since D2 games don’t count, it doesn’t hurt them. Not to mention that several times have inflated strength of schedules since they played regular season games vs. D2 games rather than against bottom RPI D1 teams.
MICH will win 74 – 61. Manny is going to be Manny and just straight up dominate.
agreed tom too. JB has done an outstanding job with what he has in terms of no frontline to speak of. UCLA and Duke need to finish these next two weeks strong.
this ou texas game is unreal
UCLA losing really doesn’t mean much. The one major factor right now is us getting to 20 wins. Lose tomorrow and our tournament chances are basically done since Iowa would go down as our worst loss. Beat Iowa and Purdue, and we’ll be 19-10. We’d only need 1 more win (@ wisky, @ minn, or btt first game)to get in for sure. Also, don’t forget Big East teams are dying and some other bubble teams are slipping. After tomorrow, we will either be an NIT team or the Purdue game will be as big of a game as 06 IU or 07 O$U were.
GO BLUE, Beat Iowa!
I think your right IX. Wow this is a pivotal game today!
Anyone going to have an online stream?
I would think an online stream will show up on justin.tv so just keep your eyes open…
Goran Suton on Wisconsin…
“I don’t like Wisconsin,” said senior forward Goran Suton. “That’s no secret. I don’t think they like us, either. They’re dirty, they push, they hold. Actually, I like Michigan more than I like them. That’s pretty bad.”
http://www.freep.com/article/2...../902220385
Spread: Iowa by 1
IX – I don’t think 20 wins means that much anymore now that teams are routinely playing 30-32 regular season games. The bigger thing is just getting to .500 in conference. Winning the first round of the BTT is important only from the standpoint that we don’t want to end the season with a bad loss. Beyond that, I don’t think it really matters.
Dylan – Will there be a Cover it Live chat anywhere? Those are cool to follow.
MGoBrian (Mgoblog.com) is hosting one, I’m guessing Dylan will probably be on there as well.
Yea, I am going to try and put the CIL up here. Stay tuned
Bruce Weber’s pre-game speech can’t touch Beilein’s magic.
The LiveBlog is up — check back in around 445 for the festivities.
Of course if you want to discuss everything else leading up to the game, this is the place. Ill/OSU now and MSU/Wisconsin later as well as all the other bubble talk.
where’s ken in vegas? i’d be all over that line once again.
Taking care of business in Iowa is priority #1, but who do we need to win/lose in the other games today?
I think Minnesota’s game today will be pretty interesting. Seems like they are on the verge of a collapse and if they lose today I think they are done which obviously bodes well for us.
Yeah, I would definately bet on Michigan getting a point. I really think they’re going to win today.
And given how well I predicted college bowls this year, that is not a good thing for UM.
Big win for Illinois… OSU falls to 7-7 and Michigan passes them in the standings with a win.
Some how with all those bubble teams losing yesterday, UM was dropped from Lunardis bracket?????? On top of that our RPI actually dropped to 50?????? What in the hell is going on, if you put our schedule/results next to almost any of these teams we should be in the low 30s! I guess the NCC game is the most heavily valued factor in the formula, never mind playing Duke twice, Uconn, UCLA, and at Maryland in the non-conference. Another factor rarely pointed out is of all thge tough games listed above, only 1 was played on our home court. This RPI formula needs to be tweaked, it has no credibility. I provided a link for UABs RPI page previously, heres another example if anyones interested. USC is still lower than UM, http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_341_Men.html
Where are you seeing that UM is dropped from Lunardi’s bracket? I can’t find it. All I see is the one from Friday.
I think he said it on Sports Center today. He also apparently said that if Michigan can win 2 down the stretch and 1 in the BTT they will be in. He thinks that will happen but just doesn’t think we are in right now. I’m just recapping what others have reported, didn’t see the actual clip.
I think it is pretty reasonable.
Hey I’m home for spring break and don’t get BTN. Anyone know if the game is being streamed anywhere online? thanks.
@Dylan,
Yeah, that’s not a big deal then. I don’t think anyone expects them to get in anymore at 8-10 in conference. So the 2 wins thing is a given(that they need them, not that they’ll get them). I’ve figured they probably need 1 in the BTT too, since a loss there would probably be against a weaker club and potentially leave a bad final impression.
If Maryland’s taking anyone’s spot right now, it’s gotta be Virginia Tech’s – not ours.
jmblue,
the reason i say 20 is because that will basically put us in the tournament. 2 more wins will guarantee us at least .500 in the conference, and that could end up being enough. However, i feel much more comfortable with 20. If we can pull 20 before the BTT i think we’re a lock unless we had to face someone like IU or Iowa and lost since we don’t have a bad loss yet. .500 in conference is very important and might be just enough to get us in, but I’d feel really safe with 20 wins.
Looks like MSU might be able to do favor for us.
File this game under “C” for “crap”. How do you not beat an Iowa team who is 1. terrible, and 2. playing without 3 key contributers? Yes, I know Tate played a couple of minutes…
I love Manny, but I’m so sick of the pouting “why didn’t I get that call” @$#&.
Dear Manny, you haven’t been getting those calls at all during the Big Ten season. Suck it up.
How many shots can we miss 2ft from the basket? CJ Lee, do you just practice defensive slides and going over screens? Do you skip the layup line? Thanks for being a non-factor.
Congratulations on making Jake Kelly, a YMCA All-Star at best, look like the Big Ten Player of the Year.
Sorry for ranting. Most of this (okay, all of this) is probably uncalled for. I don’t handle losses very well.
I hope Beilein is happy. Go CJ and Merritt yeahhh!!!!!!!!!!!!! We are the greatest cause we play great defense. Iowa shot wide open shot after shot in front of Merritt today, the Iowa point guard jake did whatever he wanted on Lee the whole game long. I do not ever want to hear about this GREAT defense ever again. Did Grady play? Why????? Grady is our most athletic player and were playing a very unathletic team??? We called a timeout with 22 seconds to go and I would assume Beilein told them to pass the ball around the perimeter and jack a forced 3? Nice coaching today, especially the brilliant move to not play your best player in overtime in the biggest game of the season???? Let the excuses for coach begin!
Go Blue…perfectly said! What the hell! Nice play call to end reg; And did Grady not earn play time? CJ and Merritt were terrible on D. At one point I remember CJ going under a screen and then not hustling back while Kelley drove for a lay-up and don’t get me started on Merrit…wow! Coach really lost a lot of my respect tonight! If the players were coached well enough they would have known how to handle the end of the game situation…a drive with 4 seconds left would have been great. And Manny not playin, what kinda point are you tryin to make…all in all, a very poor job of coaching! The defensive intensity was lacking all night…the team just wasn’t prepared from a coaching stand point!
I think JB is going to bring great things in the future but tonight he flat out coached us out of the tournament. Yes, the officiating was horrible but that has to be expetced on the road. You have to put your personal stuff aside and put your best five on the floor. This was the biggest game in the last ten years, or at least the most important, and our best point guard didn’t play a second and our best player didn’t see the court in overtime. I honestly just don’t get it.