Game 28: Michigan at Iowa Preview

Dylan Burkhardt
on

Basics:
Who
: Michigan  (17-10) at Iowa (13-13)
Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA
When: Sunday, Feb 22nd, 5 PM ET
TV: BTN
Spread
: Iowa by 1
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, Iowa KenPom Profile
Radio
: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)
Last Time:
Preview / Recap

Iowa looks like a team that is falling apart, one that you can write off, but just last weekend they almost knocked off Purdue in Iowa City without Jeff Peterson and Cyrus Tate. The Hawkeyes have lost 9 of their last 11 games and have had to deal with all kinds of injury and personnel issues over the last several months.  They still are not healthy and their once very efficient offense ranks tenth in the league when looking at only conference play.

Anthony Tucker was Iowa’s leading scorer early on but his season fell apart after a drinking related arrest, mono, and being ruled academically ineligible. Now Iowa is dealing with injuries to Cyrus Tate and Jeff Peterson. Cyrus is Iowa’s strongest inside presence but he has missed 10 of the last 11 games with a high ankle sprain. Lickliter and Tate don’t sound optimistic:

“Cyrus has always been a competitive person. A big heart. I just have to believe that (the injury) limiting him. There’s no question about it. He can’t tolerate the pain.”

“It’s something you can’t rush,” Tate said. “I’ve been impatient twice, and it’s cost me.”

Asked if this could be a season-ending injury, Tate said, “I’m not saying that. I’m still hoping I can be back.”

Jeff Peterson is the Hawkeye’s starting point guard who averages 10.6 ppg, 4.2 assists per game and shoots nearly 40 percent from three point range. Peterson missed last weekend’s game against Purdue but his chances sound a little better for playing this weekend:

“I hope to be back,” Peterson said. “There’s still a chance — I just don’t know how good.”

“Jeff is sore, (but) working hard,” Lickliter said. “And I’m hopeful because (the injury) wasn’t to the extent that it could have been. Now, I don’t know if he’ll be ready for Sunday, but I don’t foresee him practicing this week.

Without Tucker, Tate, and Peterson the Hawkeyes don’t have much. Matt Gatens is a freshman who can stroke the three ball (44.7% three point) and Jake Kelly is a versatile swing man who is pretty much a glue guy and does a bit of everything. Jermain Davis, Devan Bawinkel, Aaron Fuller, and Jarryd Cole round out the rotation but there really aren’t any playmakers or even potential playmakers in that group.

As a team Iowa really doesn’t do that much all that well. They love to take the air out of the ball and slow the game down and they are a good shooting team. They have hit 37.2% of their triples on the year but they are shooting only 34.2% in conference play. Similar to Michigan they love to shoot the three ball, 47.8% of their field goal attempts are three pointers. They do have some guys that can kill you from deep in Jeff Peterson, David Palmer, and Matt Gatens who all shoot over 39% from long range.

Iowa turns the ball over a lot, their turnover rate of 23.6% is second to last in conference play. They are also the worst team in the conference at forcing turnovers. These numbers shouldn’t come as a shock to Michigan fans because Michigan dominated the turnover battle in the first game, forcing turnovers on 30% of Iowa’s possessions and only coughing it up on 18.9% of their own. They don’t rebound well or do really do anything spectacular on defense.

This is a team that looks very beatable on paper. Carver-Hawkeye isn’t particularly hostile, and Michigan won there last year, but it is still a Big Ten road game. I worry about Cyrus Tate even if he is a long shot to play because he is a guy that killed Michigan last year (15.6 ppg and 9.3 rpg in 3 games). Jeff Peterson being out would be a gift for Michigan, especially because Iowa turns the ball over so often. The Hawkeyes have had plenty of time to prepare with 8 days of rest which is always good for a team thats trying to get healthy. They also have had plenty of time to watch film of the first contest between these two teams.

Pomeroy has Iowa winning 59-58 in a 56 possession game. I am cautiously optimistic but nervous at the same time. Let’s hear your thoughts, predictions, and in-game discussion in the comments.

Pre-Game Reading (updated til game time):

  • gooter9

    Taking care of business in Iowa is priority #1, but who do we need to win/lose in the other games today?

  • Avery Queen

    I think Minnesota’s game today will be pretty interesting. Seems like they are on the verge of a collapse and if they lose today I think they are done which obviously bodes well for us.

  • Mith

    Yeah, I would definately bet on Michigan getting a point. I really think they’re going to win today.

    And given how well I predicted college bowls this year, that is not a good thing for UM.

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    Big win for Illinois… OSU falls to 7-7 and Michigan passes them in the standings with a win.

  • http://umhoops.com Go Blue

    Some how with all those bubble teams losing yesterday, UM was dropped from Lunardis bracket?????? On top of that our RPI actually dropped to 50?????? What in the hell is going on, if you put our schedule/results next to almost any of these teams we should be in the low 30s! I guess the NCC game is the most heavily valued factor in the formula, never mind playing Duke twice, Uconn, UCLA, and at Maryland in the non-conference. Another factor rarely pointed out is of all thge tough games listed above, only 1 was played on our home court. This RPI formula needs to be tweaked, it has no credibility. I provided a link for UABs RPI page previously, heres another example if anyones interested. USC is still lower than UM, http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_341_Men.html

  • Mith

    Where are you seeing that UM is dropped from Lunardi’s bracket? I can’t find it. All I see is the one from Friday.

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    I think he said it on Sports Center today. He also apparently said that if Michigan can win 2 down the stretch and 1 in the BTT they will be in. He thinks that will happen but just doesn’t think we are in right now. I’m just recapping what others have reported, didn’t see the actual clip.

    I think it is pretty reasonable.

  • Michigan Student

    Hey I’m home for spring break and don’t get BTN. Anyone know if the game is being streamed anywhere online? thanks.

  • Mith

    @Dylan,

    Yeah, that’s not a big deal then. I don’t think anyone expects them to get in anymore at 8-10 in conference. So the 2 wins thing is a given(that they need them, not that they’ll get them). I’ve figured they probably need 1 in the BTT too, since a loss there would probably be against a weaker club and potentially leave a bad final impression.

  • Giddings

    If Maryland’s taking anyone’s spot right now, it’s gotta be Virginia Tech’s – not ours.

  • IX

    jmblue,

    the reason i say 20 is because that will basically put us in the tournament. 2 more wins will guarantee us at least .500 in the conference, and that could end up being enough. However, i feel much more comfortable with 20. If we can pull 20 before the BTT i think we’re a lock unless we had to face someone like IU or Iowa and lost since we don’t have a bad loss yet. .500 in conference is very important and might be just enough to get us in, but I’d feel really safe with 20 wins.

  • Kevin

    Looks like MSU might be able to do favor for us.

  • Keith Davis

    File this game under “C” for “crap”. How do you not beat an Iowa team who is 1. terrible, and 2. playing without 3 key contributers? Yes, I know Tate played a couple of minutes…

    I love Manny, but I’m so sick of the pouting “why didn’t I get that call” @$#&.

    Dear Manny, you haven’t been getting those calls at all during the Big Ten season. Suck it up.

    How many shots can we miss 2ft from the basket? CJ Lee, do you just practice defensive slides and going over screens? Do you skip the layup line? Thanks for being a non-factor.

    Congratulations on making Jake Kelly, a YMCA All-Star at best, look like the Big Ten Player of the Year.

    Sorry for ranting. Most of this (okay, all of this) is probably uncalled for. I don’t handle losses very well.

  • http://umhoops.com Go Blue

    I hope Beilein is happy. Go CJ and Merritt yeahhh!!!!!!!!!!!!! We are the greatest cause we play great defense. Iowa shot wide open shot after shot in front of Merritt today, the Iowa point guard jake did whatever he wanted on Lee the whole game long. I do not ever want to hear about this GREAT defense ever again. Did Grady play? Why????? Grady is our most athletic player and were playing a very unathletic team??? We called a timeout with 22 seconds to go and I would assume Beilein told them to pass the ball around the perimeter and jack a forced 3? Nice coaching today, especially the brilliant move to not play your best player in overtime in the biggest game of the season???? Let the excuses for coach begin!

  • JRose5

    Go Blue…perfectly said! What the hell! Nice play call to end reg; And did Grady not earn play time? CJ and Merritt were terrible on D. At one point I remember CJ going under a screen and then not hustling back while Kelley drove for a lay-up and don’t get me started on Merrit…wow! Coach really lost a lot of my respect tonight! If the players were coached well enough they would have known how to handle the end of the game situation…a drive with 4 seconds left would have been great. And Manny not playin, what kinda point are you tryin to make…all in all, a very poor job of coaching! The defensive intensity was lacking all night…the team just wasn’t prepared from a coaching stand point!

  • raiderfan

    I think JB is going to bring great things in the future but tonight he flat out coached us out of the tournament. Yes, the officiating was horrible but that has to be expetced on the road. You have to put your personal stuff aside and put your best five on the floor. This was the biggest game in the last ten years, or at least the most important, and our best point guard didn’t play a second and our best player didn’t see the court in overtime. I honestly just don’t get it.

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