Basics:
Who: Michigan State (19-4) at Michigan (15-9)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Tuesday, February 9th, 7 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: MSU by 4 (and rising)
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, MSU KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)
Opposition Blog: Spartans Weblog
Programming Note: I got tapped to guest blog over at MGoBlog so head over there to check out my attempt to put my feelings about this rivalry on paper. And just in case you missed it, KJ and I posted Q&As about our respective teams.
Michigan tries to build off of their impressive performance at UConn with their fifth match-up against a top 10 team this year. Michigan State has hit some rough patches this year but they are in the drivers seat in the Big Ten title and look like they will grab their first conference crown since 2001. In previous years the Spartans have continuously fell short of the Big Ten championship because of their inability to win on the road — this isn’t your big brother’s Spartan team, Michigan State is 5-0 on the road in conference play, a stark improvement over years past. Michigan State’s two conference losses have actually come in the friendly confines of the Jack Breslin Center.
So how did this Michigan State team get to 19-4? Rebounding, rebounding, and more rebounding. Michigan State is easily the best rebounding team in the country. They are the only team that ranks in the top 10 of both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages. Michigan State has rebounded over 40% of their misses in 12 of their 23 games, compare that to Michigan who has posted an offensive rebounded percentage over 40% just 5 times this year.
Beyond rebounding the Spartans don’t do any specific thing exceptionally well. Their overall adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies both rank in the top 30 nationally. Their offense comes in 10th at 116.0 while their defense only allowed 90.4 (27th). Michigan State reached their top 10 offensive rating while not ranking in the top 50 in any single key component. Their defense on the other hand ranks 27th but doesn’t rank in the top 100 in any single defensive component besides rebounding.
Luckily for the Spartans there aren’t any glaring weaknesses on their resume either. If I had to pick things to call “weaknesses” I would say that their free throw shooting percentage and turnover numbers leave something to be desired but they are not far from national averages. The MSU recipe for success is clear: dominate the glass and do a solid but unspectacular job at everything.
All of this rebounding talk has to be troubling for Michigan fans. Michigan hasn’t done a good job on the glass all year, their offensive rebounding percentage of 30.2% ranks 259th and their defensive rebounding percentage of 76.3% ranks 181st. Not to mention the fact that UConn just dominated Michigan on the boards, pulling down over 50% of their misses. The encouraging part is that Michigan has found ways to win even when being out-rebounded. This strategy revolves around turnovers, Michigan needs to win the turnover battle to help make up for the almost certain MSU domination on the glass.
Michigan has found a little bit of life after inserting CJ Lee and Zack Gibson into the starting line up and I wouldn’t expect any changes tonight. Kelvin Grady will be locked on the bench until he picks up his defense, especially when the opposing point guard is Kalin Lucas.
Izzo is claiming that Raymar Morgan won’t play because he is still battling pneumonia, mono, the flu, and every other diagnosis out there. I’ll believe it when I see it because I’m sure Ray would love to play in this one and he poses a big matchup problem for Michigan. I’m sure Michigan fans are familiar with point guard Kalin Lucas and freshman power forward Delvon Roe as they both were Michigan recruits at one time. Goran Suton provides the scoring punch inside and Travis Walton is the lockdown defender that will undoubtedly draw the Manny Harris assignment.
Michigan needs to bring their “A” game to have a chance against the Spartans and they will definitely need a boost from the supporting cast. That could mean anyone from Laval Lucas-Perry to Stu Douglass to Zack Gibson. Michigan won’t beat MSU by just leaning on the “big 2″. Then again, I don’t think they can win without solid games from both Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. Michigan State just isn’t the type of team you can beat with a mediocre performance.
Most bracketologists have Michigan as one of the last teams out or the last teams in and the consensus is that a 9-9 in conference record would punch Michigan’s ticket to the dance. To get there Michigan is going to have to win some tough games and a win tonight would be a huge step in the right direction.
Thoughts, predictions, and in-game discussion go in the comments.
Pre-Game Reading (updated throughout the day):
- A Rivalry Renewed
My post on MGoBlog - UCLA Is Good: Wildly Underrated, Too
Gasaway on the Bruins - Michigan Game Preview: Choose-Your-Own-Adventure Edition
KJ breaks down the stats - Rivalry bullets
Quotes from both sides - MSU’s Morgan unlikely to play vs. U-M
I’ll believe it when I see it. - LAGE ON HOOPS: MSU-UM matchup huge for both teams
- University of Michigan’s Stu Douglass takes advantage of being overlooked
“Oh, you’re getting zero minutes,” the student told Douglass. - John Beilein hopes for frosh to click tonight
That would be nice - Tom Izzo’s U-M animosity morphed into respect
Excellent post over on MGOBLOG! I really enjoyed reading that and it got me fired up for today’s big game. Thanks for sharing and glad I’ve found your blog as a result of the guest appearance on MGO. GO BLUE!
I have a lab from 7-8:50. Gosh this sucks. I emailed my professor to see if there is any way I can make it up. He hasn’t responded. I’m Pissed. I will do everything I can in order to try and watch this game. If not i am forcing my girl friend to text me every 5 minutes of game time with updates.
Prediction: 65-61 BLUE!
GO BLUE!
I think the officiating will decide this game. If they allow it to be physical without calling fouls around the rim, MSU wins easily. Michigan needs the following things to happen to win:
1. Manny Harris has to play well, and that includes getting to the line when he drives the lane.
2. Michigan has to frustrate the Spartans on defense. They’re not going to win the rebounding battle, so they need to at least make MSU work for their points and turn the ball over. We don’t want to see the layup drill that we saw against OSU earlier in the season.
3. Michigan needs to be average from 3-pt range. They can’t shoot in the 20-25% range and expect to win. They don’t need to blow up for 40%+, but they need to be in the mid-30% range and force MSU to cover everyone on the floor.
What I want to see is Sims scoring inside 15 feet, Manny driving to the basket, and good 3-pt shots from Stu, Novak, and LLP. I don’t want to see 3′s from Sims, Gibson, or anyone else – find a better shot.
Nice article about Stu.
Agreed about officiating – they will be a factor. Does many go to the line or not.
Wish I could be there, but
GOT TO LEAVE IT ALL ON THE COUCH TONIGHT!!
This is off topic but could someone please explain how Wisconsin has an rpi in the 20s and UM is at 48??? We have better wins and better losses. I know they won head to head but looking at the 2 resumes and its clear UM has the more impressive one. I guess its the huge disparity between them thats the real mystery???
Wisconsin’s SOS is 3rd in the country and they have played 2 game against RPI 200+ teams while we have played 5 including 1 win teams like NCC and EMU..
I have a hunch this could be a breakout game for LLP…This rivalry probably means as much or more to anyone on either team considering he is from Flint (flintstones, etc). 2 or 3 threes and a nice drive and score would be a real shot in the arm for the team tonight.
I expect a few bad chucks from Stu tonight, which is fine as long as he keeps playing great defense. I feel like we’re going to need Shep tonight too.
This is very winnable as AC1997 said with a 3 point percentage in the high 30% and we limit turnovers to 11 or less. That and we have to be able to get to the line. If the refs aren’t calling anything we might be screwed.
Go Blue!
Dylan, how many players on M had legit MSU offers? Just manny and peedi?
Peedi is the main guy, I’m sure MSU would have loved to have had Manny but when his recruitment started blowing up they had Summers and Allen already in the bag.,
1. Your rivalry renewed post was very well written even though you are on the wrong side of it.
2. I disagree with how you said Michigan can’t beat MSU by just leaning on the big two. I don’t know why not. Kevin Koble beat us essentially by himself. Talor Battle tore us up with little help. If Harris and Sims have huge games, it may not matter what the other guys do. Especially if the Spartan offense doesn’t show up or if they turn the ball over excessively.
Anyone know who the officials will be tonight? That may be one of the biggest factors in this game.
I’m guessing that Eddie Hightower will be one of them, since he seems to always do U-M and MSU games. As long as there’s no Jim Burr, we should be happy.
The officiating will be a major part of this game. Of the 3 Big Ten crews I’ve seen, I tend to prefer Ted Hillary the most and Jim Burr the least.
As much as I’d love to go to this game tonight, I actually live in East Lansing (I know, I know) and don’t think I can make it. But Tubby Smith said I have to stay hungry and never, ever, ever, leave the couch, ever.
Make sure you grab plenty of those little hot dog things.
I don’t want to get into a war of words with the Spartan fans, but Coble had 29 points in the NW win, but NW scored 70. While he had a great game, he had a lot of help (Thompson scored 20, Moore 11.) Battle had a great game against MSU, scoring 29 points, but PSU scored 72. He got a lot of help namely from Cornley with 17, Pringle with 10, and Jones with 12. I see a pattern there of at least 1 other player stepping up and Michigan will definitely need that.
Officials? Ugh!! I, too, think Hightower will be there as I think he does most of the tuesday games. I think that he thinks we tune in to watch him as he blows and the whistle over and over on one play and does his little dances. The officials in the PSU let both teams get away with playing rugby. I hope this one doesn’t go down like that, but I don’t want the officials blowing the whistle every possession either.
I am hearing the Walton and Allen may be suffering from symptoms similar to Morgan now.
I can live with a Hightower game, much as I think his interpretation of the rules (anything goes in the lane, but you so much as look at the guy with the ball funny out on the perimeter and you’re getting a foul) leads to horrifically ugly basketball, as long as it’s not Donnee Gray. He’s the nutjob who called the most one-sidedly refereed game I’ve ever seen (the ’06 game at Michigan). Say what you will about Hightower (I certainly have), at least he usually calls it the same at both ends.
A couple of comments about officials:
1. I don’t wanna talk too much about that ’06 game, but the Spartan argument after the game was along the lines of “there was such a large disparity in the amount of free throws between the two teams, there MUST have been biased officiating”. This argument is no less ridiculous than saying that a home team must have enlarged the size of whichever rim they were shooting on based on the fact that they had a much higher shooting %. In that UM simply did a better job of attacking the rim and that’s why they shot so many more free throws.
2. I hate the “he made bad calls, but they were the same bad calls for both teams, so it’s ok” argument. Not all calls are created equal. A couple of examples
Team A is not as deep as Team B. There are a bunch of bad fouls called causing both teams to get into foul trouble and use their bench. Team B wins because their deeper. If we assume that Team A would have won had they not had to play their bench so much, poor officiating has decided the game even though both teams get the same amount of bad calls.
OR
Team A had a 12-15 lead on Team B. Team is in the middle of a huge run–they’ve cut it to three points. A player from Team B drives the lane, scores a layup and a whistle is blown. The foul should have been a blocking foul, giving Team B a chance to tie the game, but instead a charge is called. This completely deflates Team B’s momentum and Team A extends the lead again. With the lead back to 12, Team A gets the same bad charge called against them. This bad call doesn’t have near the effect that the first one did.
Equally bad for both teams is not an excuse for bad officiating
The latest for PURDUE/Kramer haters.
http://www.jconline.com/articl.....037/SPORTS
As far as Jim Burr…..if you think he favors PURDUE then you didn’t watch ILLINI at PURDUE earlier in the year. He was horrible. Painter got on him and he basically turned and yelled at Painter 2-3 times during the game.
I think BIG TEN refs call too many nickle/dime infractions on the perimeter. Did anyone watch DUKE/CLEMSON last week….both teams got after it and the refs let them play. Fouls should be called when a player gains an advantage not when he draws contact or is bumped on a drive.
Keys for the WOLVES.
1. Stop SPARTAN transition game.
2. Lose rebounding battle by less than 10.
3. Shoot 3′s better than MSU and shoot more 3′s. The white boys from Indiana gotta step up and drill em from behind the silos!
4. Contain Lucas…..make others make plays. Walton and Hill are below average……make them beat you off the dribble.
5. Play like you did against UCONN not at PURDUE….sorry but its about toughness! We all know MSU would love to turn it into a wrestling match……and we know hte refs usually let them……so get dirty and get after them!
P.S. I hope you beat them…..not that it helps PURDUE….with no Hummel we have no chance to win the conference……
I wonder if anyone on here has watched as many Michigan games as I have? Back to the days of Hubbard…Green….McGee, Turner, McCormick!
MAIZE out for tonights game…don’t forget to dress appropriately. Also, lets not storm the floor tonight after the BIG w…dont let sparty think they are important
I’ll laugh if that guy who always T’s up Izzo, David Maracich, is one of the refs. We could use two free points.
Purdue 7
Where do you get that MSU wants to turn it into a wrestling match? Izzo’s teams, when given the chance, love to run, not mug it up like everybody seems to think. This isn’t the 1994 Knicks we’re talking about. Case in point MSU leads the conference in Average Points For (PF) with 75.5…Purdue is second with 70.4 and no one else is above 70 (all games not just B10). Izzo’s teams have always been willing to play whatever style necessary to win a game, but most of them have always chosen to run when given the chance.
As far as the “refs usually let them” Um OK. MSU may lead the conference in free throws attempted this year, but to my Spartan memory that certainly seems like an exception.
We’ve lost Raymar Morgan and Goran Suton for significant periods of time…I’m sorry Hummel’s out, it would make for a more exciting finish, but you play with the hand you’re dealt.
I just wish the national media and the rest of the conference would get off this kick that MSU plays football on the basketball court. It’s simply untrue. If you want to look at a program that likes to slow it down and get physical go look around in Madison.
I’ve made predictions on four or five games this season, and I believe in three of those games I correctly predicted the opposing team’s score (sadly, I cannot say the same for the Maize and Blue).
Here’s to jinxing myself and correctly predicting U-M’s score tonight: Zack Novak finds his second wind and hits some big 3′s, while Peedi dumptrucks Suton and the rest of those jokes down low in the green. CJ keeps Lucas at bay (though I still see him getting his 15-20 points), but Stu leaves his jumpshot in Storrs.
MSU 64
Mich 67
GO BLUE! I’ll be right in front behind the scorer’s table!
Michigan wins this one easy 61-60.
I figure Michigan needs to go 2-1 at home and 2-2 on the road to get those magic 4 wins. Like most people I like their chances against Minn at Crisler, and against NW and Iowa on the road. I figure they need to beat MSU or Purdue at home and it would sure be nice to relieve some pressure and get the win tonight.
These guys have the potential, hopefully they can put together an effort similar to what they did on Saturday. I think they will. 65-61 Michigan.
Dylan – Think you could tweet in occasionally from the game? If you can, I’ll add your twitter feed.
Raymar is dressed in warm ups.
Sure Paul.
Looks full of Michigan fans, that’s a good sign.
Wow, MSU’s pushing the tempo rather hard.
On second thought, there must be quite a bit of Izzone in the upper deck. And here come the morale-crushing alley oops.
as expected, Ed Hightower the story of the game so far. That’s three bad calls/no calls in a row. No rational human being could think Roe was fouled on either of those and 1 opportunities.
The least they can do is give Gibson continuation on that intentional foul. I mean, what’s the point of even calling that at all?
Michigan has to find a way to score the ball. Stu needs to come up huge this half. State made the plays down the stretch that half but a lot of game left.
Wow. Just wow. Missed shots, missed freethrows, out rebounded, out turnovered. Are they just tired from the UConn game?
This is absolutely pathetic. I wouldn’t show my face on campus tomorrow if I were on this team. I don’t buy the “they’re tired from the UConn game” BS. These are 18-21 year olds, you can’t play 2 games in 4 days?
MSU has looked pathetic, we’ve just looked more pathetic. There’s only one word to describe this game, it’s not “tired”, it’s “choke”
frustrating
Have we boxed out one time tonight? Are you kidding me? They just stand around and wait for the ball to fall to them. It’s pathetic.
Manny Harris may be the most overrated player in the entire Big 10.
Roe has 10 rebounds…and he’s committed a foul on about 7 of those
CJ Lee has no business on the floor over LLP either.
dagger by lucas
You have to admit, if 3 games in 6 days is a problem, then heaven help them in the Big Ten Tournament.
At this point, its all about freethrow disparity.
At this point, it was just about who made the free throws. And that would be MSU.
“CJ Lee has no business on the floor over LLP either.” -Johnny Lawrence
You’re joking, right?
While the offense looked better in the second half, it still is dismal compared to the out of conference games. Is the team too small or just still not disciplined enough? Other than more experience, will next year bring any changes to help?
What’s important for Michigan to remember is that Northwestern can’t beat them, but they can’t let MSU beat them again on Sunday. Michigan doesn’t have anything to prove against MSU, they just have to take care of business by beating Northwestern and Minnesota, then beat Iowa on the road, and ultimately Purdue is a must win.
i realize he is our best player and i may get bashed for this… but there are times when i think this team might acctually be better without manny harris. He just gets to frusterated when things arent going his way.. which seems to be more times than not in the big ten season. But logically that statement problem isnt true
I feel sick…
Down 4 with all the momentum, Crisler going crazy and UM has the ball, and then it happened! A terrible 3 point shot that missed and led to a 3 pointer going the other way. End of momentum, end of any chance to win and end to my hope/belief in a team that has oppurtunities to overcome their shooting deficiencies but lacks the smarts to do so. Im not even going to mention the mentally challenged player by name, but make no mistake about it this team is not smart. Of all the shortcomings present, this mental weakness is the real killer.
revoke scholarships for being an idiot? I mean, if you get an academic scholarship and you have a bad GPA, you get it revoked. So, basically you get a scholarship revoked for being an idiot. Can we do that with the basketball team?
Obviously I’m kidding but interesting to think about
i absoluetly hate to lose to state
For better or worse… Trey Zeigler was there.
Game was horrible. Little movement, can’t shoot, this is all starting to get repetitive in Big Ten games (with, maybe, two exceptions).
By the way, “Yinka Double Dare” might be my favorite name of any poster on here. It at least made me smile…unlike the game tonight.
two very poor decisions by manny down the stretch. stu also committing stupid foul after stupid foul really hurt. overall just a pathetic game aside from sims obviously. can’t see us coming out and finishing the season strong now but who knows.
RE: Copperyale.
Remember that this kid is a sophomore. And that, realistically, he has never played organized basketball before (AAU does not count). So basically, hes a tremendous basketball player, in his 2nd year of actual coaching at a high level. A sophomore.
Yes, Copperyale is a moron, but luckily, he’s going to be around for another 2 years and he has the talent to develop. I do not like his shot motion, at all. Why was he fading away on that 3?
Ugh, I forgot how annoying spartyfans are.
I’m tired of 2-3 zone, terrible shooting, and bad officiating being passed off as defense in the Big Ten.
One of the worse games I’ve been to. Simmy showed up. The rest of the team didn’t. Horrible shooting.
I remember being hyped for the (I believe) ’97 team (Taylor, Traylor, Baston, etc.) and then feeling kicked in the stomach when they fell apart. Sure, they ended up winning the NIT, but that was one of the most underachieving teams I have ever watched. More turnovers than assists was the norm for that team. It was almost expected, but…
When this year’s team has more turnovers than assists I cringe because I don’t expect it. And, really, 13 turnovers (tonight) isn’t terrible. I keep reminding myself that THIS YEAR’S TEAM HAS OVERACHIEVED. No matter how ugly a few of these games have been, I honestly thought 15 wins would be a stretch and beating two #4′s along the way never even came to mind before the season.
Six games left. NCAA, NIT, I don’t even care right now. If they can be competitive for the remaining six games, grab a win or two–or four–I’ll consider this team a success.
The ’97 team was loaded with McDonald’s All-Americans and realistically should have had the most dominating frontcourt in college basketball. This year’s team? Walk-ons and transfers, along with Manny and Peedi, two kids who stuck with the program because they believed in Beilein and were confident they could help turn this program around. And, we have all seen glimpses this season that has allowed us to believe. That’s why we check UMHoops every day, why we watch every game, why we come back here and post/discuss their most recent performance. Despite some disappointing losses, I’ve enjoyed watching this team play a helluva lot more than I did watching a team with limitless talent squander away their season.
What the hell was that. Whaaaattt the helllllll wasss thaaattt. Biggest game of the season and we put up 15 points in the first half. We have to be the worst 3 point shooting team in the Big Ten now. Which is great considering we take more than anybody. Just a supreme choke job. Michigan State was basically giving us that game. Here take it. All you have to do is score 60 points. Maybe hold on to a few loose balls. Hit 20% of your threes. Hit 70% of your free throws. That’s all you have to do. Here it is. Nope, thanks for the offer, but we’re too busy shitting down our leg and acting like we are on the road. I’m so dejected right now.
id imagine that this game pretty much seals the fate of trey zeigler NOT coming to michigan ……..its unfortunate how things work out, but i guess you never know
I don’t think one game is going to determine a recruit’s fortune… Disappointing certainly though.
Can Michigan win all 4 of our next 4 games? @ NW, Minnesota, @ Iowa, Purdue. Nothing says tourney team like a 4 game winning streak in late February.
I am wondering if Novaks minutes should be cut back, we are not getting much of anything from him. He played 37 minutes and scored 4 points and grabbed 4 rebounds.
Can Beilein mix in a set play every once in a while to get the offense going???
i dont know who it was but i was arguing with somebody or many people about getting high caliber players and more than 1 every class and people were saying they were suprised…….i just was thinking and i began looking at tom crean and indiana….he has 3 top 100 and maybe a 4th coming in next season, and beilein is just as credible and proven coach as crean if not more, so why can crean pulls these players…..michigans history is just as good as indiana……im not buying that the facilities are the only reason players are going to schools like that over michigan…..i think beilein is just not that good of a recruiter for someone considered one of the best coaches in the game……..if tom crean and others can land several of the best players in the country year after year then beilein should be able to at Michigan without any problems, but yet we do not
if you are a great coach like people say he is then it should be effortless, whether they are winning or not becuase that has no effect on tom crean and indiana they are awful and are still obtaining big time recruits, same with minnesota, even though tubby has won a nat. champ, nonetheless beilein is considered as good of a coach as any……..so whats the problem?
i dont wanna hear that we have to win in order to get players cause i think thats nonsense, i think belien is a bad recruiter……..any coach thats nationally praised should be able to get just about any player with or without winning
this particular lineup was on the floor tonight,
Lee, Merritt, Shepard, Sims, and I believe Novak.
Sorry but that’s just foolish.
The most likely scenario now that would get us in is to win our next 4 games (at NW, Minny, at Iowa, Purdue), then beat Iowa/Indiana in the first round of the BTT. It’s not totally farfetched, especially if Hummel doesn’t play when the Boilers come to town. If we fall in any of those games, I’m not so crazy about our NCAA hopes resting on stealing a victory at Wisconsin or at Minnesota.
If we only win 3 of our remaining 6, then we’ll almost certainly play in the 8/9 game of the BTT against Northwestern… with the winner taking on MSU. If we could somehow avenge tonight’s loss and advance to the semis, that would put us right at the cusp of the NCAAs. If we only win 2 of our remaining 6, we would have to at least get to the BTT finals and possibly win the whole thing to get in.
MSULAXATIVE
You really don’t think MSU plays physical basketball? How do they lead the country in rebounding every year? Must be all the 7 footers?
There is no doubt MSU runs/pushes the ball up the court……they always have since Jud was there. Playing physical/aggressive hoops is the only way to play. Unless you have a bunch of lottery picks like 20 years ago(MICHIGAN 1989) you have to win with D!
MICHIGAN lost because they have no 4. Novak tried his hardest but he could not handle Roe inside.
MICHIGAN will be favored to win the next 4 games. The PURDUE game will be interesting because neither team has more than one good post player.