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Basics:
Who: Michigan (18-11) at Wisconsin (17-10)
Where: Kohl Center, Madison, WI
When: Sunday, Feb 28th, 2 PM ET
TV: BTN
Spread: Wisconsin by 8
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, Wisconsin KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)
Last Time: Preview / Recap

The first time these two teams met, Wisconsin gave Michigan a stern reminder about how basketball is played in the Big Ten. Wisconsin shredded the Michigan defense and rode their hot shooting (eFG% of 65.2%) to a 12 point win in a game they led for 40 minutes. These two teams have both been through quite a bit and seen their fair share of ups and downs  in the 59 days since their first battle.

Wisconsin has had a tumultuous conference season that has seen both a six game losing streak and a five game winning streak. Despite looking like they were toast at the end of January the Badgers now look like they are a good bet to make the NCAA tournament. Michigan on the other hand continues to fight for an NCAA berth and their Thursday night effort against Purdue was arguably their most inspired of the year. Michigan needs to bring the same kind of effort and intensity to the Kohl Center if they want to steal one.

Wisconsin plays painfully slow basketball and they grind teams up with their methodical swing offense. The Badgers’ offense has been very efficient this season, in conference play they are scoring 1.07 points per possession which is good for third in the league. Wisconsin holds onto the ball better than anyone else in the conference so don’t expect many turnovers. They are also a very solid shooting team, they shoot 36.8% from long range and 48.3% from two point range. They don’t do anything else exceptionally well on offense but they don’t have many glaring weaknesses either.

On defense Wisconsin will try to overwhelm Michigan with their size. They aren’t exactly UConn but they throw a lot of big bodies at you. Guys like Krabbenhoft, Nankivil, Jarmusz, and Landry are all in that 6-foot-7 mold where they can play all over the court.  Wisconsin does a great job of not leaving their feet to commit a foul, they play body position defense and take your space away rather than blocking your shot. You can bet that they will cram the lane in an effort to prevent easy looks.

In the first game the Michigan offense didn’t have much going besides Zack Novak who had 20 points. Peedi had an efficient 14 points on 6 shots but Manny Harris struggled and only scored 9 points on 3 of 13 shooting. Laval Lucas-Perry scored 11 points but he struggled on defense all game. Michigan clearly is going to need to get a solid performance out of DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris, those two guys are the ones that make this offense go, especially on the road.

The biggest change from the first game will be the lineups. LLP played 30 minutes in the first match-up and I would expect to see him play closer to 8 minutes in this one. Stu Douglass has stepped his game up over the last 7 games and is averaging 9.7 ppg and shooting 43.5% from long range. I would also expect to continue to see a lot of CJ Lee because his defense will be needed against Trevon Hughes. Hughes absolutely torched Michigan in the first game and hit a ton of big shots, especially late in the shot clock.

The key for Michigan is going to figuring out a way to get stops. To give you an idea of how well Wisconsin played on offense in the first game, they scored 1.24 points per possession. Michigan had one of their best offensive performances of the year against Purdue and they only scored 1.22 points per possession. The encouraging part is that Michigan’s defense has seemed to improve lately, mostly since the insertion of CJ Lee into the lineup.

It’s hard to like Michigan’s chances in this one. The Kohl Center is a tough place to play and Wisconsin has been on a roll (won 5 of last 6). The Badgers did slip up to Texas, Minnesota, and Purdue at home but it’s going to take Michigan’s ‘A+’ game to earn a win in Madison. Wisconsin has a veteran team and they have been here before, I’m not expecting anything but their best.  Pomeroy gives Michigan a 20% chance at the upset and picks the Badgers by 7, Vegas is even less forgiving and predicts an 8 point margin.

Let’s hear your thoughts, predictions, and in-game posts in the comments. No live blog for this one, they are clearly bad luck.

There are 16 days, 2 games, and a conference tournament left before Selection Sunday. With their win last night over Purdue, Michigan at the very least have put themselves on the bubble.

The latest bracketology reports are encouraging but these really are nothing more than a “whos hot” list in my mind. If Michigan loses Sunday I am sure they will be “out” next week but if they go on to beat Minnesota I think they will be back “in”. The value of these mock brackets is limited until the final week or so of the season so you have to take them for what they are: an estimate of the bracket if the season ended today.

Lunardi has Michigan as the last team in and Crashing the Dance also has Michigan in the field. Lunardi’s bracket is very interesting because Minnesota, Penn State, and Michigan are all right on the edge. Michigan and Penn State are the last two teams in while Minnesota is the first team out. These last couple games are absolutely huge and it looks like at least one Big Ten bubble team is going to be very disappointed on Selection Sunday.

The Michigan Resume

• Record: 18-11 (8-8)
• RPI: 46
• SOS: 11
• RPI Top 50: 5-8
• RPI 50-100: 5-3
• RPI 100+: 7-0
• Quality wins: UCLA (neutral), Duke, Illinois, Purdue
• Bad losses: Iowa
• Last 10: 5-5

There are some real bright spots on Michigan’s resume including 10 wins versus top 100 teams and five against the top 50. They also have managed to go the distance really without a bad loss, Iowa hurt but they look like they could end up in the top 100 anyways. The issue for Michigan is that they have a lot of losses as well as two road games on deck.

Win one of the final two and Michigan is in business. Their RPI will probably jump a few more spots with a split putting it in the low forties. They might need to beat Northwestern in the first round of the BigTen tournament to be safe but that would be a very solid resume. Despite their inconsistency this year Michigan has a big RPI win in November (UCLA), December (Duke), January (Illinois), and February (Purdue).Lose the last two games and the going gets tough, the RPI could stay in the top 50 but it would be time for some magic in the Big Ten Tournament.

Scenarios

• Beat Wisconsin, Lose to Minnesota: This would result in a 9-9 conference record and also give Michigan a big road win. They would probably want to win their first round Big Ten Tournament game but I think this is a pretty good situation.
• Lose to Wisconsin, Beat Minnesota: Same feelings as above.
• Beat Wisconsin, Beat Minnesota: Lock. 10-8 in conference with 7 wins over top 50 teams. Stone cold lock. Then again the odds are not very good to say the least.
• Lose to Wisconsin, Lose to Minnesota: Need a Big Ten Tournament run if they can’t get it done on the road. This would likely give us the 8 seed which means we would play Northwestern and then Michigan State. If they could win those two they might be in the picture but they will need some luck.

It’s pretty simple, win one of these last two games and Michigan is in good shape heading to Conseco. Winning the first game of the Big Ten tournament isn’t necesarrily going to help but it doesn’t hurt, that’s the key there.

The best chance for a win has to be at Minnesota. Michigan handled them pretty well in Ann Arbor and even though Minnesota is a much better team at home, it’s still a game where Michigan certainly should have a chance. Wisconsin hasn’t been invincible at home this year (losses to Texas, Purdue, and Minnesota) but it is still the Kohl Center.

Weekend Viewing Guide

The other bubble teams worth keeping an eye on in my mind are: Cincinnati, Florida, Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, Miami, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Providence, San Diego State, and Texas A&M. I’m sure there are a few I missed but that’s the core group to root against.

Here is a quick run through of who to root for this weekend. Clearly Michigan needs to handle their own business but a little help never hurts. Teams to root for are in bold. If I missed a game leave it in the comments and I’ll add it to the list.

• Georgetown at Villanova – Saturday, Noon ESPN
• Texas A&M at Iowa State – Saturday, 1:30 PM ESPN360
• Notre Dame at Connecticut – Saturday, 2PM CBS
• Arizona at Washington – Saturday, 3PM FSN
• Duke at Virginia Tech – Saturday, 3:30 PM, ABC
• LSU at Kentucky – Saturday, 4PM CBS
• Temple at Dayton – Saturday, 4PM
• Texas at Oklahoma State – Saturday, 6PM ESPN
• Indiana at Penn State – Saturday, 6PM BTN
• USC at Stanford – Saturday, 8PM
• SDSU at TCU - Saturday, 8:30 PM
• South Carolina at Vanderbilt – Saturday 8:30 PM
• UCLA at Cal – Saturday, 9PM ESPN
• Tennessee at Florida – Sunday 2PM, CBS
• Providence at Rutgers – Sunday, 2PM ESPNU
• Cincinnati at Syracuse – Sunday, 2PM ESPN360
• OSU at Purdue – Sunday, 4PM ESPN
• Maryland at NC State – Sunday, 7:30 PM

Links

• Let’s Look at sub-.500 Records in Conference Play
  Not quite up to date and I’m not sure I agree with all the opinions but it’s interesting. USC, Texas A&M, Maryland, Cincinnati, Va Tech, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, and Michigan are the 8 teams he lists, at this point I would take Michigan before a lot of them but maybe I’m too biased?
• On inconsistency (or the lack thereof)
  KJ looks an consistency issues in the conference
• Fresh & Peedi Foil Boilers 87-78
  Some nice pics from MVictors
• Manny Harris, DeShawn Sims keep promise of victory
  “That’s the coach,” Harris said. “Can’t bump heads with the head coach, and like I said, I agreed with the decision.”
• U-M springs back to life

Open Thread

This post will be the place for any bracketology talk over the weekend, at least until I get the game preview up. There is almost too much to keep track of here so if you have any added insight I would gladly listen. This definitely should be a fun weekend of basketball and at the very least it feels good that all of these games matter.

The message was clear: don’t write us off quite yet. Thursday night was a hell of a way to go out for CJ Lee, David Merritt, and Jevohn Shepherd. All three seniors got their chance to contribute in the game and their teammates helped them to a proper send off. This one was an offensive performance for the ages against one of the best defensive teams in the country.

Michigan caught fire in the second half en route to 50 points.  The shooting numbers were ridiculous: 81% from the field (17-21) and 62.5% from three point range (5-8) for an effective field goal percentage of 92.8%. Purdue allows an average eFG% of 42.5%, and they have allowed teams to shoot higher than 50% eFG% only four times this year. Michigan’s effective field goal percentage for the game was 71.7%. This was Michigan’s best mark of the season and it was the best shooting effort anyone had against the Boilers since before 2004.

Michigan kept Purdue in the game with their dreadful performance at the free throw line down the stretch. Michigan missed 10 free throws in the second half which is frustrating, especially for a team that has been solid at the stripe. Hopefully this was a one time thing and Michigan can put it behind them. Michigan missed 14 free throws in the game and finished 21 of 35 for the game. Probably the most remarkable stat is that Michigan missed 10 free throws and only 4 field goals in the second half.

Michigan did a solid job on the defensive end but it wasn’t spectacular. Robbie Hummel got a lot of open looks from long range and had 16 points in the first half but Michigan held him to 8 in the second. Michigan did a pretty good job mixing up the defenses; they went with some 1-3-1, 2-3, and man to man. This was enough to keep Purdue a little off balance but the offense clearly won Michigan the game.

Once this season is over there will be no denying that it has been a fun ride. Sure there have been plenty of ups and downs but what more can you expect the year after a 10-22 season? This team has responded with their backs to the wall several times, upset top 5 teams, and even played four overtime games to add to the drama.

Michigan sits at 8-8 in conference and it still looks like they need to find a way to win one more game in the regular season. The RPI made a nice jump to 46 and winning one more could push it close to the thirties range. I’ll work on a post tomorrow about what needs to happen for Michigan’s bubble chances.

Player Bullets:

• DeShawn Sims: First the stat line: 34 minutes, 29 points on 13 of 16 (1-2 3pt) shooting, 5 rebounds,2 assists, 2 blocks, and a steal. I think it is safe to say that this was DeShawn’s best game in a Michigan uniform (the Duke game is very close). Peedi took it right at JaJuan Johnson and got him in foul trouble and besides that he just made everything.
• Manny Harris: Clearly no lingering effects from the Iowa game: 35 minutes, 27 points on 8 of 15 shooting (3-5 3pt), 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 turnovers, and a steal. Manny did it all out there and he did it against one of the best defenders in the country. He took it to the hole, he dished the ball, and he even hit some ridiculous three pointers. I loved Manny’s attitude as well, he was vocal and keeping everyone in the game.
• Stu Douglass: The unsung hero in this one: 31 minutes, 7 points on 2 of 4 (2-3 3pt) shooting, 4 assists, and 3 steals. Those are pretty good numbers for a freshman facing a tough defense like Purdue. Stu’s over the head backwards bounce pass was a thing of beauty and he got robbed on the Sports Center top 10. Not to mention that they put Kramer swatting Stu’s layup in there. Where is the love?
• Zack Novak: 34 minutes, 4 points (1-4), 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 turnovers. It seemed like Purdue wanted to take Zack out of the game and not give him any looks from deep, he didn’t force it and still made his typical hustle plays.
• Kelvin Grady: 11 minutes, 3 points, 2 assists, 3 turnovers, and a steal. Kelvin got some playing time because of CJ’s foul trouble and he didn’t exactly dominate. Kelvin had one mind numbing turnover with about two minutes to go but he did a good job breaking the press. For what it’s worth I think it is fair to say that Kelvin didn’t really show anything that deserves massive amounts of playing time.
• CJ Lee: The senior never really got it going on his night due to foul trouble. CJ only played 14 minutes but he did hit a three pointer. The free throws down the stretch (1-4) were enough to drive anyone (including CJ) crazy.
• Dave Merritt: He’s not Darren Collison or Kalin Lucas but the kid just plays hard. You can’t say enough about him or CJ, they aren’t All Americans but it is their attitude that has made this season what it is — I have no doubt. They are captains in every sense of the word.
• Jevohn Shepherd: Great to see Shep get a chance to shine on senior night and hit a three and get an assist. He’s been through a lot in his four years here but he stayed through it all and never seemed to pout.
• Zack Gibson: Nothing to see here: Gibson only played six minutes and he didn’t look good when he was in the game.
• Laval Lucas-Perry: I think the most frustrating thing for me with Laval right now is the defensive lapses. Laval had 3 fouls in 8 minutes. I do like that he has started to take it to the hole, he’s not much of a finisher in the lane but he can get to the stripe.
• John Mahoney: Props for the technical, you have to go above and beyond to get a technical as an assistant coach.

Basics:
Who: Purdue (21-6) at Michigan  (17-11)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Thursday, Feb 26th, 9 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Purdue by 2.5
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, Purdue KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)
Last Time: Preview / Recap

The event that stands out from the first matchup is Manny Harris’ elbow connecting with Chris Kramer’s face. Manny was ejected and Purdue closed the game on a 39-21 run. It is a little more reassuring to look at the first 20 minutes when Michigan actually took a lead into the locker room at halftime. The fact that Michigan had the lead despite not shooting particularly well and without a remarkable performance from Manny Harris should give fans a little hope.

So what should we expect in round two? To start with, both of these teams have a lot to play for. Purdue is a game behind Michigan State in the conference title race and Michigan is trying to keep their NCAA dreams alive. In terms of atmosphere, the game is sold out for senior night but its spring break so I wouldn’t expect many students.

Purdue is the best defensive team in the Big Ten, defense is what they stress and they do a damn good job of it. The Boilermakers allow only .92 points per possession in conference play, .84 for the season (third in the country). The Boilers also hold their opponents to a stone cold 42.5% eFG% (3rd nationally) while still forcing plenty of turnovers and keeping their opponents off the free throw line. There isn’t really anything that Purdue doesn’t do well on the defensive side of the ball and that is scary if you’re a Michigan fan.

Purdue’s offensive falls more in the middle of the road. The Purdue offense has been slightly inconsistent due to Robbie Hummel’s injury problems but they still have some pieces. The Boilers are a decent shooting team and do a good job holding onto the ball. The areas where they are a bit underwhelming are the offensive glass and getting to the free throw line.

JaJuan Johnson has turned into a monster in conference play; he is averaging 14.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, and 2.6 bpg in conference play. Johnson didn’t necessarily dominate in the first matchup but I would expect Purdue to try to establish JJ early and often. Robbie Hummel has been bothered by injuries all year and his numbers show it: 8.9 ppg and 5.7 rpg while shooting 35.7% from long range (down from 47.6% last year) . Even when Hummel is not his normal self he still makes Purdue a much better team; they seem to be more comfortable with him on the offensive end and he always seems to make the big shot.

In the backcourt the Boilers have Chris Kramer, Lewis Jackson, E’twaun Moore, and Keaton Grant. Moore is coming off of a 26 point (10 of 14, 5-6 3pt) effort against Indiana. Keaton Grant has struggled a bit this year, he’s hitting only 34% from three point range after hitting 43% last year. Lewis Jackson is a small point guard who was out in the first matchup with a concussion. And of course Chris Kramer is one of the best defensive players in the conference.

It’s senior night in Ann Arbor and it will be CJ Lee, David Merritt, and Jevohn Shepherd’s last home game in the Maize and Blue. Festivities typically take place a little bit before tip off so I would recommend getting there early. These three kids have all taken their fair share of criticism throughout their careers but there is no denying that they gave their all for the university and the program. Shepherd never quite realized the potential that everyone saw in him but he was always ready to go as a defensive substitution or a spot starter. Merritt tried out time and time again before finally making the team, by the time he was done he was a captain and started several games. CJ Lee, I love this kid because he has the smarts, the hustle, and the grit and while he might not be the most talented he always gives his all.

This one is pretty much all or nothing. A win would keep Michigan’s tourney hopes alive and a loss would pretty much be the end of Michigan’s already dwindling chances barring a miracle in Indianapolis. Does this team have enough left in the tank for one more run?

Pomeroy doesn’t like Michigan’s chances, he gives Michigan a 33% chance to win this one and predicts a three point Purdue win. Don’t bother looking for hope down the road because Pomeroy gives Michigan a 25% chance or worse to win each of the next two as well. Vegas likes Purdue by a very similar 2.5 points, let’s hear your predictions and in-game discussion in the comments.

Pre-Game Reading:

• It’s do or die time for Michigan
• U-M’s John Beilein: Wolverines moving on after team meeting

• Banged-up Hummel cleared to play Thursday
• Court Vision with C.J. Lee: The Battles We Fight Within Ourselves
  CJ Lee: “Since the last game, I — like a lot of my teammates — surely have been beating themselves up mentally. This type of wishing and second guessing does way more harm than good. We need to distance ourselves from this way of thinking immediately.”
• Borton’s Blog: Moving forward, peeking back ($)
  Back to the grind and forgetting about Sunday’s debacle
• In or Out? Wisconsin
  Crashing The Dance breaks down Wisconsin’s profile
• Conference Check: Beginning of the End Edition
  Wonk
• Mulling an Intervention for the Big Ten
  More Wonk
• Beilein: Harris will rebound
  “When asked if he thought Harris might have some negative carry-over from not playing in overtime, Beilein flatly said, “No.”"
• Battier and the Box Score
  Some reaction to Michael Lewis’ recent piece in the New York Times
• McCormick on bitter Iowa ending ($)
• McCormick on Michigan-Purdue ($)
• John Beilein: Michigan still has shot at NCAA tourney
  He’s got a point, 2 out of 3 will still put Michigan in a great spot
  
• Dribbles and Drives: Bid To Raise Money for Manager Scholarship
  Bid on a picture autographed by the 1989 team