Michigan takes care of business in a 57 possession game. Michigan led for almost the entire forty minutes and contained the dangerous Northwestern offense. Michigan needed a win tonight and they got it.The shooting stroke isn’t quite back but Michigan won the game on the glass and at the free throw line.
I give the coaches a lot of credit for having this team ready to play tonight. They were coaching from the tip on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. Michigan had a plan to attack the 1-3-1 and they executed very well on offense. On defense they were stressing the intensity all night long. One play that stands out was when Stu went under a pick in the second half and Moore nailed a three, the whole coaching staff let him hear about it.
Michigan set the tone early on by pounding the ball into DeShawn Sims. Sims scored the first 11 points for Michigan and eliminated Rowley’s size advantage. DeShawn slowed down throughout the game after getting in some foul trouble but it was great to see Michigan get going on offense early without relying on the three point shot. Even though Michigan established the interior game early on they still hoisted 51.9% of their shots from long range (9-27 three point shooting).
Michigan scored 1.19 points per possession in their 5th most efficient offensive performance of the year. Michigan did a great job taking care of the ball against Northwestern’s pesky zone defense with a 15.8% turnover rate. Michigan posted a free throw rate of 34.6% and didn’t let Northwestern get to the line (FTR: 5.7%). Michigan usually wins when their opponents don’t get to the line. They are 12-0 when opponents have a free throw rate under 32% and 1-6 when it’s over 32%.
Michigan rebounded 40.6% of their missed shots and only let Northwestern rebound 9.7% of their misses. I would say this is one of Michigan’s best performances on the glass all year long. Northwestern is a very bad rebounding team and it’s absolutely essential to make them pay on the glass.
Kevin Coble is flat out talented. The skilled big man managed everyone that Michigan threw at him and scored 21 points on 9 of 18 shooting while pulling down 7 boards, dishing 5 assists, getting 2 steals and blocking a shot. Craig Moore has a pretty stroke but he was only 4 of 13 from long range. Michael Thompson added 16 points but after that no one else on Northwestern had more than 2 points. Michigan on the other hand had 6 players score 7 points or more.
I wouldn’t say the slump is over but Michigan shot well enough to get a necessary win at home. The next two games will be really tough. A chance for revenge in Columbus followed by a trip to West Lafayette to face a Purdue team that is finding their stride after some early struggles. Michigan would be in great shape if they could steal one but a 1-5 streak still seems pretty likely.
Player Bullets:
- Manny Harris: Manny wasn’t finding his game offensively but he still had a solid all around game: 8 points (2-9 shooting), 12 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 turnovers. Manny wasn’t hitting his shots but he stopped forcing it and just worked the ball around the zone. Manny rebounded 37.9% of Northwestern’s missed shots by himself.
- DeShawn Sims: Set the tone early on: 15 points (5-8 shooting), 7 boards, 1 steal, and 2 blocks. Peedi only played 25 minutes but he was responsible for Michigan’s quick start offensively and I thought he gave solid effort all night.
- Zack Novak: It is a joy to see Zack Novak hit the offensive glass. Novak pulled down 4 offensive rebounds and probably tipped out 2 or 3 more. Novak scored 7 points but didn’t quite find his stroke (1-5) but his 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal in 31 minutes is good enough for me.
- Stu Douglass: Stu has been shooting the ball well over the last few games: 3-5 shooting for 8 points (2-4 three point), 2 boards, 2 assists and a turnover in 23 minutes.
- Laval Lucas-Perry: Still searching: 5 points on 2-6 (1-4 3pt) shooting with 4 assists, a steal, and a rebound in 16 minutes. Laval hasn’t quite found his shot but he didn’t need it tonight because Stu was playing well. I think it was a good thing that we didn’t need Laval tonight, hopefully it will help him relax.
- Zack Gibson: Quality game for Gibson: 8 points on 4 of 6 shooting with 4 boards in 15 minutes. Zack hustled, hit the glass, and made open shots. I loved to see Gibson run the floor for the easy layup in transition.
- Kelvin Grady: I thought Kelvin played well but I don’t know if Kelvin has ever had a game without an assist: 11 points on 3 of 8 shooting and 4 rebounds in 26 minutes.
- CJ Lee: CJ Lee just makes plays: 4 assists and 1 steal in 11 minutes.
- Anthony Wright: Anthony got in the game and hit a three but couldn’t do much after that, he definitely will never be accused of being scared to shoot. I don’t think we will see Anthony get any major minutes any time soon.
- Jevohn Shepherd: Shepherd got in the first half but didn’t post any stats besides a missed three pointer.
- David Merritt: Dave played a solid game tonight: He made a three pointer, had 2 assists and pulled down a rebound in 11 minutes.
How do you calculate free throw rate? Is it the percentage of possessions that end in a free-throw opportunity?
Free throw rate is FTA/FGA. There is a link on the right side bar for tempo free stats explanations courtesy of the Big Ten Wonk.
Here is another good resource for stats explanations:
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.p.....team_page/
Edit: I actually changed the link to this page, it’s a little more useful for quick reference.
I have been saying all UM has to do is shoot reasonable from 3s and they will be in, if not win most games. This is a perfect example 33%, is not anything to brag about but it was enough. If UM would have shot this same percentage against PSU it would have been dead even. I stress this only because I think many believe the “gimmick” label and falsely believe its predicated on shooting great percentages, but its not the case.
I loved Ant hitting that three and sticking it in the face of all his haters. Of course his play after that didn’t really help. I do really hope though that we continue to see a 9, 10 or 11 deep rotation the rest of the season, because Zack Novak looked a lot more fresh and aggressive tonight after he was able to sit for a bit.
Dylan, did you do a PSU +/-? And will there be a NW one? Obviously none of us want to remember that PSU game so no analysis is needed, but might be interesting to see the numbers.
I’ve been slacking. I’ll try to get them done this weekend. Not sure how much demand there really is for them but I might as well finish out the season.
By the way, how awful was that decision by the refs to go back and put 5 seconds on the shot clock after Manny hit the rim on the failed lob to Peedi?
I was standing right behind the TV monitor as they were looking at it, and the refs’ explanation was that “since Manny was passing and not shooting, the shot clock shouldn’t reset even if it hits the rim”. I highly, highly doubt that anything like this is in the rule book, because it’s completely subjective as to whether a guy is shooting or passing. Anyone know for sure? I’m watching the replay of the game right now and the BTN announcers kept saying “the referees are checking to make sure the ball hit the rim, and we see clearly that it did” and then when the refs put the clock at 5 the announcers were completely silent, almost like they had absolutely no explanation for what was going on.
I was wondering the same thing… I watch a good amount of basketball and don’t remember ever seeing anything like that. It must be some kind of rule though? Would all three refs just make up their own rules on the fly?
Maybe..
Amazingly, I just dug this up from a “Basic Shot Clock Rules” document for scorers/timekeepers to use:
“There is no reset of the shot clock if a ball strikes the rim or flange as the result of a pass. It must be a shot to have the shot clock reset. A deflected pass that hits the rim would not result in a reset.”
Watching the game again, you can tell that when Beilein hears the explanation, he doesn’t argue, he just goes back to coaching. But during the game I remember both Mahoney and Dunn saying “it doesn’t matter if it’s a pass!” It wouldn’t surprise me if Beilein is one of the few coaches that knows little quirks in the rules like this.
The rule book is here: http://www.ncaapublications.co.....6f90ed.pdf
Here is what it says on when the shot clock operator should reset the clock:
When a try for goal strikes the ring or flange and then possession is
gained by either team;
It then goes on to say…
Art. 12. Allow the game officials to make the final decision when there
is doubt as to whether a score was made within the shot-clock period or
whether a try for goal contacted the ring or flange.
a. When there is doubt whether a score was made within the shot-clock
period or whether a try for goal contacted the ring or flange, any
activity before the next live ball shall be canceled, with the exception
of any flagrant foul, intentional foul or technical foul.
Yea… well what if the pass went in? Maybe DeShawn was going for an offensive rebound? Haha.
For whatever it’s worth, I enjoy the plus/minus. Gives the game a new perspective. It does seem like a lot of work though.
its unfortunate that novak has to play the 4 because once again we saw them struggling shooting threes and even though he had a few threes,i think like people have been saying he is getting a ton of playing time and is running around way to much…..he is our best 3 pt shooter and needs to get more looks than what he has been getting the last few games, playing the 4 doesnt allow that…..and even though he has been playing well he needs to be our go to 3 pt shooter if there is such a thing
he needs more touches on the ball and be wing oriented
A much needed win tonight, and they got it. Overall a great job of stepping up on the coaches part, and I give them props for giving Shep and Ant some minutes. Novak looked a lot better when he came in later in the game, and I’m also happy that Stu is getting more involved on offense. He seems to be a bit more comfortable when he faces pressure, and he started to penetrate a little bit tonight, which gave Novak some looks and even Gibson (I think) a touch or two inside.
JB switched up and put Novak at the tip of the 1-3-1 and put LLP down low. I am thinking JB wants more rebounding out of LLP, so he put him down under the basket. Novak will ALWAYS be under the basket. Also, LLP isn’t getting as many tips off the 1-3-1. Gansey at West Virginia used to get 4 or 5 tips a game at teh top of the 1-3-1.
Loved the way they penetrated and kicked to get better looks. Also loved the points in the paint. Without those, these guys just chuck….
It definitely looked like the intensity came back as a result of the longer bench. We’re going to need that if we want to keep up with the bigger, more athletic teams like MSU, OSU, and especially UConn.
Now we need a road win next week, my hunch is that we will get one in Columbus.
The longer bench–especially when they score–should really help the 5 usual starters relax and realize they don’t have to win the game by themselves. Ant is kindof a bricklayer, but I loved seeing him hit that 3, and also seeing him and Shep get meaningful minutes.
We really need to capitalize on this victory and let our momentum carry us to victories in Columbus and West Lafayette. Two road victories here and we should be back in the thick of things…
2 road victories? ONE road victory would be huge.
Absolutely agree that the boys need a split this week. At this point, I think we have to shoot for 9-9, and that is going to mean some road wins.
Back to the pass hitting rim, shot clock and refs — Good refs understand the purpose of a rule and make their interpretations (when necessary) accordingly. The intent of the shot clock rule is to prevent the ’stall’ strategy. If we hit the rim trying to run a stall, or even making a non-lob pass, then the interpretation the refs came up with would have been appropriate. But to refuse to reset the 35 seconds when a lob hits the rim — ridiculously bureaucratic and stupid.
Now that I think about it, if you could run a stall by bouncing the ball off the rim to renew the shot clock, that would be pretty interesting. There probably is no reason for a ref to interpret a ’shot’.
Imagine if *we* could shoot like Florida is on the road right now. 12-18 from 3 IN THE FIRST HALF!?
If a lob (alley-oop) pass goes in on accident, it counts….so a pass hitting the rim should count and a reset of the shot clock should occur……that’s how I see it.
pretty confident we win in columbus. not sure exactly why but i just don’t think they are that good. just gotta stop turner. mullens obviously has his size advantage but it was turner that was creating his shots. if we come out and shoot terribly then we lose but i don’t think that’s gonna happen.
The way I see it, the only problem Michigan had in the first game was stopping BJ Mullens. At the very least, Shepard and Wright are good for 5 fouls each, if they can hack Mullens, turning an easy dunk into 2 freethrows, we could cut down on that.
I wish i shared some of the confidence, but expect we might get only 1 win in the next 6 games. Hope I’m wrong. This team has surprised me before.
I wish i shared some of the confidence, but expect we might get only 1 win in the next 6 games. Hope I’m wrong. This team has surprised me before.
Despite shooting poorly (2-9FG), Manny seemed to keep his composure and found other ways to help the Wolverines. He got on the glass (12reb) and dished the ball (4ast/2to). The rebounding advantage was huge. I never expected to see Michigan outrebound an opponent in the Big Ten by 19. Everyone was active and played with an energy that had been lacking the last 2-3 games.
Establishing the paint area early, (Sims’ first 9 points) was a good sign. The defensive intensity was there from everyone. Someone mentioned that Novak looked more fresh, but he still played 31 minutes (only 2 below his Big Ten average). Moving him to the point of the 1-3-1 might help. Still, he came up with 7 rebounds and gives everything he has.
I would set screens for Stu Douglas every possession that he is in the game for. He’s a fearless shooter with a quick release. It’s nice to see him shooting with confidence.
LLP missed two 3’s early and both of them looked like flat-footed, lethargic attempts. He made one in the 2nd half and he had some legs under him. Pointless to mention, but was still kind of weird to me.
Someone mentioned Shep and Wright getting quality minutes…that made me smile. I like Shep’s energy, but his line was 0-1FG followed by a steady line of “0″s, capped off with “4min”. Ain’t Wright made a three, yes…and then still managed to travel twice in his 5 minutes. Grand Valley State should start recruiting him. I understand that those guys getting any minutes may help one of the regulars catch a breather, but in major D-1 basketball, I’d feel more comfortable having someone on the floor who looks like they belong, instead of playing 4 vs. 5.
Zack Gibson: 8pts, 4reb, 15min…Nothing spectacular, but those are what I would consider quality minutes.
18ast (on 22fgm), 9to against a team ranked in the top 15 nationally on creating turnovers (creating nearly 19to/game)…I love how this team values the ball.
Now it’s time to win one (or two) on the road! They can do it.
Not sure that we “need” at least a split this week. Let’s take a step back – I think most people agree that we need to go 9-9 in the Big Ten to feel pretty good about our chances to make the Dance. Where do the 5 wins come from?
1 – PSU (home)
2 – Northwestern (road)
3 – Minnesota (home)
4 – Iowa (road)
5 – Purdue or MSU at home OR Minnesota on the raod
I think this is a pretty realistic way to get to 9-9 without winning either road game this week.
Don’t NEED a win this week. It would be very nice though… We would be sitting in much much better shape if we had managed to beat Wisconsin or OSU on our home floor… A win this week would make up for that… Right now #5 on your list looks very tough and the rest are no walk in the park.
Does OSU’s loss at home to MSU make them more or less likely to beat us Wednesday?
Did NW’s win at MSU make them more or less likely to beat us? I don’t think you can really make a guess from their last game… OSU has lost two in a row so they will be looking to bounce back… then again they have lost 2 in a row so they aren’t playing very good basketball.
If I were OSU I would be devastated if I lost back-to-back home games to the Michigan schools. I think it’s safe to say that we’ll get their best shot.
re: OSU – Clark Kellogg was saying that Mullens was having trouble scoring against defenders who matched (or came close to) his size, like Tisdale and Suton – so I guess there’s zero relevance to how he’ll play against us.
But watching him heave up chunks of masonry from the line (while waiting for Izzo to send in Herzog, Naymick and the manager to commit more fouls) made me wonder about whether Beilein would try the Whack-a-Mullens strategy. Frank suggests Wright and Shepherd, but I bet Puls could check in, commit a foul, and check back out without injuring himself or turning the ball over. Since one of the things Beilein’s system does is minimize fouls committed, I suppose he wouldn’t like the idea…
rlc, interesting idea of whacking mullen, I don’t think that Beilein will take any winning strategy out of the table. Shepherd could give him a fit, he can play tough.
Whack-a-Mullens. Sounds good to me.
Clearly, the strategy from the first OSU game was a failure, because Mullens shot 78% and scored 15 points in 26 minutes.
New ESPN tournament projections have Michigan as a 12. They are one of the last four teams in.