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Basics:
Who: Northwestern (10-6) at Michigan (13-6)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Saturday, January 24th, 8 PM ET
TV: BTN
Spread:
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, Northwestern KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)
Opposition Blog: Lake The Posts

It’s hard to pick just one low point from last season but the home loss to Northwestern definitely makes the top 5.  Northwestern went 1-17 in conference play last year but their one win came in Ann Arbor. Northwestern comes into Ann Arbor Saturday night flying high after a huge upset in East Lansing earlier this week. The Wildcats have played pretty good ball throughout the Big Ten season and if not for a couple bad bounces and missed free throws the Wildcats probably could have been 4-2 in conference rather than 2-4.

Despite a little bad luck early in the Big Ten season the Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the conference. Northwestern is 10-6 with wins over Florida State, DePaul, Minnesota, and at Michigan State. Their losses include a close road losses at Stanford, Butler, Penn State, and Wisconsin and home losses to Michigan State and Purdue.

Northwestern is a perimeter oriented team. They shoot 40.4% of their shots from three point range, struggle on the offensive glass (26.8 OR%, 325th), don’t turn the ball over (17.9 TO%, 31st), and don’t get to the free throw line (32.9 FTR, 244th). Their two point shooting percentage is merely average at 49.5% but they hit 38.1% of their three point shots. The Achilles heel of the Northwestern offense is that they get a lot of shots blocked (13.3 block%, 332nd) and shoot only 67% from the free throw line. Hopefully Ekpe Udoh… Michigan doesn’t really have the size to exploit Northwestern’s lack of finishing ability in the lane. The one guy I would like to see get going on defense is DeShawn Sims, we haven’t seen the type of defensive intensity out of him that we saw early on this season.

Northwestern’s offensive profile is similar to Michigan’s except for the fact that they are making a lot more of their three point shots. If you take a look at Michigan’s three point numbers you can see that they only shot the ball well in the month of December. They are averaging a dreadful 29.8% in January and shot only 28.6% in November compared to their solid 37.9% in December.

The Northwestern defense lives off of a 1-3-1 zone very similar to the one that Michigan plays. The one thing that Northwestern does better than Michigan in the zone is to cause a lot of turnovers. The Wildcats force turnovers on 25.6% of their opponents’ possessions (14th nationally). Purdue, Minnesota, and Michigan State all struggled with the zone and turned the ball over constantly. Jeremy Nash plays at the top of the 1-3-1 zone and the 6-foot-4 junior is great at stealing the ball (3.8 steal%). Michigan has done a great job of holding on to the ball this year and it will be interesting to see how Michigan fares against a defense it is quite familiar with.

The scoring punch for the Wildcats consists of dynamic forward Kevin Coble and sharpshooter Craig Moore. Coble is averaging 15.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.3 apg, and shooting 37.5% from long range. Moore on the other hand is averaging 13.9 ppg and 2.8 apg while shooting 43% from long range. Michigan better remember that Craig Moore absolutely lit them up last year and they can’t leave him open. Michael Thompson is the Wildcat’s third player who scores in double digits (10.3 ppg) and he also shoots just over 40% from behind the arc. 7 foot freshman center Kyle Rowley starts inside and averages 4.2 ppg and pulls down 1.9 rpg in 13.4 mpg.

According to KJ of SpartansWeblog there are a couple keys to beating Northwestern that are pretty much the same year in and year out:

• Don’t turn the ball over against the 1-3-1.
• Knock down your 3-point looks.
• Make good interior passes to beat the zone.
• Force the Northwestern players to try to beat you off the dribble, rather than giving up open 3-point looks or back-door cuts.
• Take advantage of your big edge on the boards.

Michigan has to do numbers 1 through 4 very well because they don’t have to size to take advantage of anyone on the glass, even Northwestern. If you are wondering, Michigan State lost because they hit 23.8% of their three point shots and turned the ball over on 28.6% of their possessions.

I’ve heard several people say that Michigan is catching Northwestern at a good time because the Wildcats will be overconfident after a win in East Lansing. But does anyone really think Northwestern will be over confident? If there was every a team that would be hungry all the time it would be the team that won one conference game last year. The bottom line is that Northwestern is playing great basketball right now. They should have beat Purdue and they did beat Minnesota and Michigan State.

In the end, Michigan has to worry about themselves. If they play their game and snap out of their funk, they will beat Northwestern. If they continue to struggle, they will lose their fourth game in a row. Northwestern doesn’t have the talent to run Michigan out of the gym but they are a good enough team to make Michigan pay if they play sloppy and throw the game away.

Thoughts, predictions, and opinions in the comments.

Reading Material:

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• D-League standout Sims plans to make time in the NBA count
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