The more I watch this team, the more I see a team that is being crushed under the weight of expectations. Looking at the roster it’s not surprising that they are struggling with expectations. Michigan starts 2 freshmen, 2 sophomores, and a junior. No one in the starting lineup has ever dealt with success or been a contributor on a winning team. They are learning how to win on the fly — there is no upperclassman that has been there showing them the way.
Expectations for this season changed after the second Duke game. One win over a top 5 team is an upset, two is a statement. All the sudden people started talking about Michigan basketball in a positive light — the same people who laughed and said Michigan would be lucky to go 500 started talking about the NCAA tournament. The athletic director called the win a “watershed event“. Hell, people even started showing up at Crisler.
Michigan is realizing that playing against good teams when nothing is expected is a lot easier than playing against good teams when you are supposed to win. It’s easy to play loose and free when you are David going up against Goliath but it’s another thing to finish off a talented team like Ohio State. The bottom line is that this team plays their best basketball when it is them against the world — they relish the underdog role.
The beauty of Michigan’s play early on this season was that the “system” looked almost second nature. The offense was flowing, there was solid ball movement, backdoor cuts, and of course three pointers. I wouldn’t go as far as saying that Michigan had swagger but they definitely had a comfort level on offense. It all looked so natural, a Michigan fan that gave up on Michigan basketball midway through last season wouldn’t believe their eyes if they caught a Michigan game from the non-conference season.
However, somewhere along the way something knocked this thing off track. The screws started tightening after Michigan’s game against Oakland. Michigan was hitting on all cylinders against the Golden Grizzlies, they scored 1.44 points per possession, shot the ball well (59.8 eFG%), didn’t turn it over (8.1 TO%), and even hit the glass (41 OR%). Since then Michigan just hasn’t been the same. Competition has been tougher night in and night out but open shots are open shots and right now they just aren’t going down.
There are several theories why Michigan is struggling. The two biggest reasons that I have heard are that this team takes too many three point shots or that Laval Lucas-Perry’s addition somehow threw the team off track.
The Three Point Shot
As a team Michigan attempted 30 three point shots per game since the Oakland game compared to only 23.6 per game in their first 10 contests. This is a pretty large increase but I think it is a pretty understandable result from adding Laval Lucas-Perry to the lineup. The lineup change meant more minutes for Lucas-Perry and Novak and less for Shepherd and Merritt. An increase in three point attempts per game makes sense when you replace two guys who hardly shoot with two guys who are probably the best three point shooters on the team.
I am almost positive that Beilein isn’t telling the team they need to shoot X number of three point shots per game. He wants them to play good offensive basketball and take the right open shots. If the opposing defense packs the lane, shoot the three. If the opposing defense plays pressure man defense, run backdoor cuts. Right now teams are daring Michigan to shoot and its working.
The truth is that Michigan can’t do much more. They are never going to be a team that can pound the ball in the post because they have two scholarship players over 6-foot-7 on the roster. There are two players who have shown any ability to penetrate. The roster issues have been there all year and there is no easy fix.
Manny Harris is far more effective at driving to the basket when he can get to the free throw line. Big Ten refs don’t seem willing to help him out much in that regard. Manny’s free throw rate (FTA/FGA) has fallen from 56.1 to 48.1 thanks to a rate of only 34.7 in conference play. The team plays better when Manny gets to the line because Manny plays a bit more relaxed and a bit more under control. If Manny’s first couple drives are blocks or turnovers you are going to see a different Manny Harris for the next 38 minutes than the Manny Harris who gets to the line early and often.
Does Michigan take a few bad three point shots per game? Probably. Are a majority of Michigan’s three point shots pretty good looks? I’d say so. In the end Michigan is going to have to make three pointers to stretch opposing defenses — it’s the life of a POT. The three point shots aren’t going anywhere because in the end Michigan has two, maybe three, players that can finish in the paint.
Laval Lucas-Perry
When Laval Lucas-Perry hit his first couple three point shots at the Palace he ran down the court and gave a Jordan-esque shrug of his shoulders to the sidelines. I don’t care whether you call it swagger, confidence, or cockiness, the bottom line is that he looked comfortable and he definitely wasn’t scared to shoot. People that can’t shoot don’t step into their first college basketball action in over a year and hit four out of their six three point shots.
The Laval Lucas-Perry I saw Tuesday night didn’t even look like the same player. That automatic smooth stroke was gone; Laval passed up several open looks and air-balled one or two others. When a shooter starts questioning himself he is going to miss shots. The first sign of second-thoughts is when you see a guy hesitate and then pass the ball instead of taking a wide open look. This is the Laval Lucas-Perry we are seeing right now.
Freshmen go through these struggles so it’s nothing shocking. I have no doubt that Laval will snap out of this funk but the only way to do it is to be himself. Forget about being who Tim McCormick wants you to be, forget about the newspapers, forget about Big Ten standings, the bubble, and the NCAA tournament. Bring back the swagger and just play ball.
Just Play Ball
Last night should serve as a reminder to everyone that any team can beat any team on any given night. I have said all along that the teams in the 2 through 10 slots are pretty equal. Well number 10 beat number 1 on the road last night. As bad as Michigan looked at the Bryce Jordan Center on Tuesday night, there are not many teams that should blow Michigan off the court. The problem is that there aren’t any games left on the schedule that won’t be a dog fight for 40 minutes.
Right now this team is searching for answers and a few fans are creeping off the bandwagon. Michigan needs to go back to the square one and get back to the basics. Throw the expectations off their shoulders and just play ball. Hopefully a day off and some necessary practice time is enough to get this team back on track because there are still 11 Big Ten games left.
Reading Material:
Wow, great work Dylan. I really enjored reading that and agreed with all of your points. I am not even close to being ready to giving up my hopes for a tourney bid. These kids need to just take 1 game at a time. If we go 9-9 in Big Ten play I think it would be simply robbery not to accept us in. I am not gonna sit here and look at where our 6 wins will come from because as Northwestern and Iowa showed last night, anything can happen in college bball. I hope the players come out relaxed on Saturday. I never thought a Northwestern vs. Michigan game would mean so much not only to the two teams, but on the Big Ten and possibly the NCAA tournament level.
GO BLUE!
Couldn’t agree more Dylan.
This team needs to lighten up a little.
That said, we can take care of business against NW as they should be on their own ‘hangover’ from a huge win !
Fantastic summation. Just play ball. What have we really got to lose?
Welcome to the life of a Gopher fan. My solution to this is to pretend the Gophers don’t exist. If no one knows we have a team, how can there be pressure?
http://fromthebarn.org/2009/01.....pher-fans/
Solid post Dylan. You echo many of the feelings I have regarding this team.
I was watching the BTN a couple of days ago and they went to a promo about an upcoming BT game or something and part of the promo was a highlight package of various teams. There is a little clip where UM is hoping around before the game near their locker room. The UM players are bouncing around, having fun, smiles on their faces, etc.
That is something that has been clearly missing the last 2 games. Maybe it is fatigue or maybe it’s the weight of expectations but I don’t see these having “fun” when they play. They look so vanilla out there…not a lot of emotion. This is something that they are going to have to fight through. I think the players are being too hard on themselves and that is causing them to play very tentatively, especially after they make miss a shot or something bad happens.
We all know they can play better…they know they can play better. It is just a matter of relaxing and like you say…”just play ball”. It is funny that you use that phrase, because that is a phrase JB uses a lot in practice. The nature of his system, especially in offense, is spread the floor, create space and “play ball”.
Let’s hope the fellas find their legs and get back to playing some hoops. If they do that, UM will be fine.
Great post Dylan. Although I by no means think Lavell Lucas Perry is not and will not be a great shooter when all is said and done, there has been a player here and there who lit things up very early in their career and fizzled from there.
Gavin Groninger is one name that comes to mind. Leslie Rockymore and Jimmy King couldnt hit the broad side of a barn in their senior years.
Great work. Cant wait for the NW game sat. night.
Nice post.
Here’s what I would do if I was Coach B.
I’d start Sims, Gibson, Harris, Stu and Grady. I understand Novak brings alot more offensively than Gibson but I just think our team needs some size. I understand this leaves noone behind our two bigs but teams have been killing us in the paint and I think its a risk worth taking.
I’d bring Novak and LLP off the bench. This would not only cut down on their minutes and keep them fresher but hopefully bring a little spark to our team at around the 14-16 minute mark depending on how the first couple minutes shook out.
I’d also spell Harris or Gibson with Shephard. I thought he was the most improved player on the team this year before he quit playing. I also thought he showed some nice offensive instinct–I think he had one game where he put up like 13 points.
I’m so-so on Ant Wright but I just think our team, along with all the expectations like Dylan said, might be getting a little bit worn down. Its basically an 8 man rotation now and we might need a few more bodies.
I just think in the beginning of the year we substituted alot and kept guys fresh and that really helped our offensive flow.
A little good news for once in a while. The practice facility is approved.
http://www.freep.com/article/2.....l+facility
I just see a three game stretch with bad shooting. It will happen. Sims had two off games but seemed to correct that. I am sure Beilein has coaching strategies to correct poor shooting. Whenever we have noticed a glaring problem this season, it has been corrected. Poor shooting might be tougher to address, but I am sure it is being addressed.
I enjoyed reading this very thoughtful post. Good stuff.
Evan
I think one of the biggest problems lately for this team has been Manny’s decreased overall production. Sure, he’s still keeping his scoring afloat, but he’s taking a lot more shots, and as you said Dylan, he simply isn’t getting to the line enough. If he gets going early in games, then teams will have to adjust to him, and then our other players will start getting better looks.
I honestly think Manny has more talent than anyone else in the Big Ten, but he has a tendency to lose some of his aggression if he doesn’t get the early calls. When he doesn’t get to the line he starts settling for pull-up jumpshots (often with a hand in the face) and he becomes a perimeter player. And on a team of perimeter-oriented players, Manny has to be the man to break down defenses and dish out the ball when all five defensive players collapse on him.
The problem with Michigan is the Big Ten teams are exposing Michigan by keeping 2 big guys on the floor since Michigan is vastly undersized. There’s nothing that Beilien can do because DeShawn Sims and Zach Gibson are the only 2 players with significant playing times who are 6’7″ or taller(not so sure if Sims is as tall as listed). Novak and even CJ Lee has to play the 3 and the 4. Next year is going to be better because Michigan will have more big bodies to combat this weakness.
You nailed it Evan. Its all about making a reasonable % of your shots.
I think there’s multiple reasons why we’re struggling right now, and they are all contributing. Basically all of them have been mentioned either by Dylan or by commenters, but I would say these are the biggest issues (in no particular order):
1) Playing as the favorite / dealing with expectations
2) Lack of height being exploited by opposing big men
3) Shots simply not falling
4) No period of more than 2 practices between games since the FGCU/NCCU games
4b) Fatigue overall
5) Novak playing huge amounts of minutes at the 4, leading to fatigue and decreased offense
6) Refs not calling fouls on Manny drives in the Big Ten season
It was interesting to hear Coach Beilein talk last night on Inside Michigan Basketball (BTN). He’s basically saying the same thing about making shots. He made the comment, “We haven’t made shots in three weeks”. He also talked about the guys shooting too quickly and that most of them are still learning good shot vs. bad shot.
Manny’s FTAs are a concern. He went from 7.25 FTAs in the non-conference, down to 4.4 FTAs in conference play. The Big Ten has long been regarded as a physical conference. I think that has something to do with it. He’s not going to get some of the calls that he had been getting in the non-conference. What bothers me is how he handles not getting the calls. Against Wisconsin, there were several times when I was up screaming for a foul. Instead of battling through it, Manny seemed to get frustrated and basically took himself out of the game. He’s too good of a player to let that happen.
I refuse to give up on this team. They have played beyond any expectations I had and I honestly believe that in the future this team will only get better.
Couldn’t agree more. But somtimes you need to go through this kind of thing to understand what winning is all about.
I also wonder if Sims ankle has been hurting. He twisted a few games back and since then his shot has been a little off. And when he had that breakaway I believe against Iowa instead of dunking it he stumbled into a layup.
Dylan,
This article is 100% better than anything you’ve written before.
Keep up the good work.