Game 15: Michigan at Indiana Preview

Dylan Burkhardt
on

Assembly HallBasics:
Who
: Michigan (11-3) at Indiana (5-8)
Where: Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Indiana
When: Wednesday, January 6th 6:30 ET
TV: BTN
Line: U-M by 6.5
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, IU KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)

The good news for Michigan is that Indiana has been absolutely awful this year. The bad news is that Michigan hasn’t won a game at Assembly Hall since 1995.

Indiana comes in on a 4 game losing streak with losses to Kentucky, Northeastern, Lipscomb (RPI #318), and Iowa and Indiana fans are wondering when the team will finally bottom out. When Tom Crean arrived the cupboard was dry and there just isn’t much of anything to work with.

Indiana relies on two double digit scorers, big man Tom Pritchard and scoring guard Devan Dumes. Pritchard averages 12.8 ppg on 56.1% shooting and 7.3 rebounds per game while Dumes averages 13.5 ppg on 39.6% shooting (31.7 3pt) and 1.7 assists per game.

Freshman guard Nick Williams (8.4 ppg) is the other consistent starter but there are 4 other players who have made a start for the Hoosiers and all average around 20 minutes per game. Michigan fans probably remember Matt Roth, a former recruiting target, Roth is shooting 35.7% from long range for the Hoosiers. Daniel Moore, Stu Douglass’ point guard at Carmel HS, leads the Hoosiers in assists with 3.9 per game. Moore started early in the season but recently Verdell Jones III (7.6 ppg, 2.2 apg) has been starting at the point guard for Indiana.

As a team Indiana’s offense is not pretty, the Hoosier’s adjusted efficiency of 91.6 ranks 290th in the NCAA. They turn the ball over on 28.1% of their possessions (341st) and shoot an effective field goal percentage of only 46.9% (240th). Their high turnovers and poor shooting, especially from long range at 29.3% (303rd), should mean a healthy dose of 1-3-1 zone from Michigan. I wouldn’t expect Indiana to have the passing ability, discipline, or size to pick apart Michigan’s 1-3-1 zone the way other teams have.

On defense Indiana is just mediocre, their adjusted efficiency ranks 98th in the country. The one thing that they do well is cause turnovers, luckily Michigan has done a very good job of taking care of the ball and only turns it over on 16.1% of their possessions (4th nationally). I also wouldn’t be surprised if Indiana’s ability to cause turnovers has been inflated from playing in blowouts and sloppy games. They still allow their opponents to shoot 51.4 eFG% from the field (263rd). For some perspective, we think Michigan’s defense has been bad but opponents are only shooting an eFG% of 47% against Michigan.

This is a game Michigan really should win easily but the easy ones haven’t always been so easy for Michigan this year. Add in the fact that Michigan hasn’t won a true road game yet this year and the fact that Assembly Hall is a nightmare and I’m a little worried. If Michigan is serious about making the NCAA tournament, this isn’t a game they can lose. Pomeroy predicts a 72-62 win, and Vegas has Michigan as a 6.5 point favorite.

Let’s hear your thoughts and predictions in the comments. I’ll be doing a live blog during the game starting at 6:20 PM.

Pre Game Reading:

  • MaizeNBlue2

    UM 75-60. Let’s hope this one turns out better than the last time I was in Assembly Hall watching us play IU. Row 9 Center court. I’m excited. Go Blue!

  • UMDC

    While this game does scare me, I think we pull off a comfortable win. 82-68. Our lead hangs between 8 and 12 points most of the game.

  • BJ

    No students, no problem

    Michigan by 15

  • stinky

    When was the last time prior to 1995 that UM won at IU or UI or whatever they go by?

  • El Capitan

    Considering the IU students won’t be back in Bloomington, I think we win easily. Having said that, I don’t think we pull away from the Hoosiers until late in the second half.

    Michigan 80, Indiana 66, but we only lead by one or two at halftime.

  • South Florida’s Finest

    Does anybody know if this game can be seen online on the Big Ten Network site? I agree with El Capitan. We pull away late. I’m gonna call a big game from Stu Douglass. He’s due.

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    SFF: There are usually streams on ChannelSurfing or Justin.tv. Someone typically comes on and posts a link during the game and I’ll try to find one during the live blog.

  • stinky

    No, it isn’t available online at BigTenNetwork.com. Maybe another site has it.

  • Adam

    I’ll go with 65-52 Michigan. I don’t see Indiana putting much together offensively. The thing that sucks is that this game is going to kill our already struggling SOS and RPI. Manny goes for 16 and I’m feeling a big game for Gibby for some reason. Maybe 12 and 6?

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    It won’t hurt the RPI THAT much in my opinion. It’s a road game which helps and we only play IU once, most everyone else plays them twice.

  • JimC

    Like you suggested Dylan, it could be scary. Probably until the half. 14-point win.

    For some reason I want the subs to get minutes this game. Even Ant. Good for chemistry maybe.

  • MattNYC

    Can’t wait to get done with the workday and sit back with a beer and watch this in HD tonight on BTN.

    Hopefully UM gets solid contributions all around and wins something like 75-60 or thereabouts.

  • Giddings

    I would love to see Zack and Stu step up tonight and light up their home-state Hoosiers. Even though the new IU coaching staff came in too late to get either one of them, it would send a nice statement.

    Also looking forward to the Live Blog… amazingly, this will be only the second Michigan game this year that I haven’t witnessed in person (the other being the Maryland game).

  • Ken in Vegas

    Way to be a traveler, Giddings. Too bad Michigan doesn’t play UNLV. If we make the tourney, I might just have to book a vacation.

    I think that Michigan wins 78-60 with an 8 point lead at halftime. Ben Cronin scores 26 in his dress clothes.

  • Toledo Toth

    The forecast for this evening shows a lot a rain in Bloomington. The Indiana connection of Novak/Douglas light up Hoosier nation from 3pt Land. Big Blue wins 78-62 for the first time in Assembly Hall since 1995!

  • JRose

    I am heading to the game tonight and hope to see fellow Blue Backers there. I agree with Dylan, this game should be a win, but playing in Bloomington is always a task…it always seems that the Hoosiers get those “could have gone either way” calls. All in all, I do see a Blue victory. I will be curious to see Shep cracks the rotation. If Ant is continues to be out of the rotation, could that lead to an open scholly for next year?

  • Ryan

    questions for anyone who knows. I looked on ticketmaster.com and big ten tickets as of right now start at $49. Now i want to go to the quarterfinals but I want to wait to see what quarterfinals session Michigan has the chance to go to (if they are a 6 or higher seed they have a playin game to go to the quarters.) Will tickets continue to go up in price?

  • Kevin

    I think Michigan will get off to a quick start and keep the lead at 6-10 by halftime. Stu and Zach will be pumped to be back in Indiana and the team will be carrying momentum from their ILL win. Michigan 78-60.

  • Mith

    I have a good feeling Michigan can handle IU, but anything can happen. I’ll go with a 70-61 road win for the good guys.

  • bball

    Things I would like to see:

    a win (obvs) in blowout fashion.
    More consistent intensity on defense
    Stu hitting some 3’s
    Gibson hitting a 3 and getting a rebound or four
    Shep and Ant getting some PT
    LLP getting smoother running the offense
    Manny with zero turnovers and fewer minutes (under 25 mins for a ‘rest’)
    DeShawn getting the ball on a post feed and dunking it.
    Grady making some more layups on drives or making mid-rangers

    Go Blue!

  • JimC

    I second that bball – it would be just about perfect.

  • Steele

    A blowout win at Assembly Hall would be huge no matter how good or bad IU is this year. I think this will be an uncomfortably close game, but M pulls out the win…

    And I agree that Stu is due for a big game. I’d love to see him hit some big threes tonight.

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  • http://umhoops.com Go Blue

    Shesh!! You guys are still totally gun shy about this team. Indiana is absolutely terrible, relax, we have way too much talent for this team. UM 90 IU 69

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  • jmblue

    Whoa – I didn’t get the memo that this game was starting at 6:30. Frighteningly, it seems that the team didn’t either. Come on guys.