More plus/minus data… I know some people aren’t big fans but for right now it’s more of an experiment. I think there is some interesting stuff that comes out of this data and it should become more clear as we move on through the conference season.
Explanations: I’m working on a full explanation post but here are the column descriptions.
Name/Team Points Allowed When on the Floor/Team points scored when on the floor, Differential, Minutes, Differential Per 40 Minutes, Allowed Per 40 Minutes, Scored Per 40 minutes, Normalized Differential (Differential/SQRT(Minutes)).
Individual:
Illinois:
| Name | All. | Sc. | +/- | Min | Per40 | A/40 | S/40 | Normal |
| Grady | 32 | 46 | 14 | 23 | 24.35 | 55.65 | 80.00 | 2.92 |
| Lucas-Perry | 50 | 64 | 14 | 32 | 17.50 | 62.50 | 80.00 | 2.47 |
| Novak | 45 | 54 | 9 | 27 | 13.33 | 66.67 | 80.00 | 1.73 |
| Sims | 57 | 65 | 8 | 36 | 8.89 | 63.33 | 72.20 | 1.33 |
| Harris | 57 | 62 | 5 | 36 | 5.56 | 63.33 | 68.89 | 0.83 |
| Lee | 7 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 50.00 | 70.00 | 120.00 | 2.50 |
| Gibson | 26 | 29 | 3 | 17 | 7.06 | 61.18 | 68.24 | 0.73 |
| Merritt | 28 | 25 | -3 | 14 | -8.57 | 80.00 | 71.43 | -0.80 |
| Douglass | 18 | 13 | -5 | 11 | -18.18 | 65.45 | 47.27 | -1.51 |
Totals:
| Name | All. | Sc. | +/- | Min | Per40 | A/40 | S/40 | Normal |
| Lee | 26 | 38 | 12 | 23 | 20.87 | 45.22 | 66.09 | 2.50 |
| Grady | 93 | 116 | 23 | 61 | 15.08 | 60.98 | 76.07 | 2.94 |
| Novak | 117 | 142 | 25 | 75 | 13.33 | 62.40 | 75.73 | 2.89 |
| Douglass | 79 | 90 | 11 | 48 | 9.17 | 65.83 | 75.00 | 1.59 |
| Sims | 166 | 180 | 14 | 99 | 5.66 | 67.07 | 72.73 | 1.41 |
| Harris | 174 | 185 | 11 | 105 | 4.19 | 66.29 | 70.48 | 1.07 |
| Lucas-Perry | 139 | 144 | 5 | 85 | 2.35 | 65.41 | 67.76 | 0.54 |
| Gibson | 66 | 68 | 2 | 45 | 1.78 | 58.67 | 60.44 | 0.30 |
| Puls | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 80.00 | 80.00 | 0.00 |
| Shepherd | 31 | 27 | -4 | 17 | -9.41 | 72.94 | 63.53 | -0.97 |
| Merritt | 71 | 59 | -12 | 38 | -12.63 | 74.74 | 62.11 | -1.95 |
| Wright | 6 | 5 | -1 | 3 | -13.33 | 80.00 | 66.67 | -0.58 |
Laval Lucas-Perry and Kelvin Grady were the big winners this week, they both were positive 14 for the game. They weren’t quite the highest per 40 minutes but I think that can be attributed to CJ only playing 4 minutes and seeing his numbers inflated. On the other hand I think it’s interesting that CJ Lee being in the game for Manny doesn’t seem to hurt as much as one might guess.
The best defense appeared to be when Kelvin was in the game (55.65 pts allowed per 40) and the best offense was when CJ, Novak, Lucas-Perry and Grady were in the game. I’m not surprised to see Novak near the bottom of the defensive list because he got burned on a few switches as well as just being over matched at the power forward.I am surprised to see his number at +9 because he didn’t play for most of the stretch where Michigan got out to a big lead at the end. The fact that Gibson was such a big part of this run and only posted a +3 means we must have struggled early on when Gibson was in the game.
LLP’s plus/minus numbers have been steadily increasing and I think that speaks to his comfort level within the offense continuing to increase. On the other hand Douglass posted a negative for the game and never really got into it but I thought he had a solid game, he can make the smart pass and managed 2 assists in the game. Stu had been posting big numbers in the plus/minus so maybe this is just a fluke.
I think it’s a little early to take much from the totals, especially when you have one win and one loss by about the same margin. However right now CJ is near the top of the list along with Kelvin and Zack Novak. Merritt has a pretty consistent negative rating and you really have to start wondering if Kelvin steps into a starting role.
Lineups:
Illinois:
| Totals | Mins | All. | Scr. | +/- | Per40 | A/40 | S/40 | Normal |
| G-LP-H-N-S | 7 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 45.71 | 34.29 | 80.00 | 3.02 |
| G-LP-H-G-S | 7 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 40.00 | 40.00 | 80.00 | 2.65 |
| G-D-H-N-G | 3.5 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 22.86 | 80.00 | 102.86 | 1.07 |
| G-LP-L-N-S | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 26.67 | 53.33 | 80.00 | 1.15 |
| D-LP-L-G-S | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 40.00 | 80.00 | 120.00 | 1.00 |
| G-D-L-G-S | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 80.00 | 0.00 | 80.00 | 1.41 |
| G-LP-L-G-S | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 80.00 | 80.00 | 160.00 | 1.41 |
| D-LP-H-G-S | 0.5 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -160.00 | 160.00 | 0.00 | -2.83 |
| M-LP-H-N-S | 13 | 28 | 25 | -3 | -9.23 | 86.15 | 76.92 | -0.83 |
| G-D-H-G-S | 4 | 7 | 0 | -7 | -70.00 | 70.00 | 0.00 | -3.50 |
Totals:
| Lineup | Mins | All. | Scr. | +/- | Per40 | A/40 | S/40 | Normal |
| G-LP-H-G-S | 7 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 40.00 | 40.00 | 80.00 | 2.65 |
| G-LP-L-Sh.-G | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 80.00 | 40.00 | 120.00 | 2.83 |
| L-D-H-G-S | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 53.33 | 0.00 | 53.33 | 2.31 |
| G-D-H-N-G | 3.5 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 22.86 | 80.00 | 102.86 | 1.07 |
| G-LP-L-N-S | 3.5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 22.86 | 45.71 | 68.57 | 1.07 |
| G-LP-L-G-S | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 80.00 | 80.00 | 160.00 | 1.41 |
| D-LP-L-G-S | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 40.00 | 80.00 | 120.00 | 1.00 |
| G-LP-L-N-G | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 80.00 | 0.00 | 80.00 | 1.41 |
| G-D-L-G-S | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 80.00 | 0.00 | 80.00 | 1.41 |
| G-LP-H-N-S | 12 | 22 | 23 | 1 | 3.33 | 73.33 | 76.67 | 0.29 |
| L-LP-H-N-G | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 20.00 | 40.00 | 60.00 | 0.71 |
| D-LP-H-N-S | 6 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.00 | 86.67 | 86.67 | 0.00 |
| M-LP-L-N-S | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 80.00 | 80.00 | 0.00 |
| L-LP-H-N-S | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 | 40.00 | 40.00 | 0.00 |
| M-LP-L-N-G | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 40.00 | 40.00 | 0.00 |
| D-LP-H-N-G | 4 | 7 | 6 | -1 | -10.00 | 70.00 | 60.00 | -0.50 |
| G-LP-H-N-G | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -80.00 | 80.00 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| D-LP-H-G-S | 0.5 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -160.00 | 160.00 | 0.00 | -2.83 |
| G-LP-H-Sh.-S | 2 | 5 | 0 | -5 | -100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | -3.54 |
| G-D-H-G-S | 4 | 7 | 0 | -7 | -70.00 | 70.00 | 0.00 | -3.50 |
| M-D-H-N-S | 20 | 46 | 36 | -10 | -20.00 | 92.00 | 72.00 | -2.24 |
Beilein used fewer lineup combinations against Illinois but still used 10 different lineups. Grady, Lucas-Perry, Manny, and DeShawn were the core of the two best lineups against Illinois. Merritt’s lineups appear to really struggle defensively but overall I think it’s really early to take information from this data. Most of the lineups have played less than 10 minutes and it’s hard to make conclusions.
Defense:
| Totals | Poss. | Allowed | PPP | Stop% |
| 1-3-1 | 17 | 15 | 0.882353 | 52.90% |
| Man | 45 | 49 | 1.088889 | 51.10% |
The 1-3-1 zone allowed fewer points per possession than the man defense which isn’t surprising. However Michigan only got a stop on 1.8% more of their possessions in the 1-3-1 than man to man. The scary part was that in the first half Michigan allowed 1.43 points per possession in the man to man and 1 PPP in the 1-3-1. They tightened up in the second half and both defenses allowed right around .75 PPP.
The 1-3-1 also caused several turnovers (don’t have the number) but this was huge in the second half in allowing Michigan to get back in the game. In the future I’m going to track whether Michigan causes more turnovers in the 1-3-1 or the man. With the 1-3-1 seemingly more efficient I am surprised that Michigan keeps abandoning it early in games.
It certainly seems from observation that the 1-3-1 causes more TOs than the man to man. It also seems to result in a bunch of wide open looks, which hopefully gets better as coach continues to teach and guys get more experience.
The turning point in the game IMO was clearly when the 1-3-1 started getting TOs midway through the 2nd half. That led to easy buckets in transition, and with Grady running the show they can really get up and down the court.
Gibson is a useful player in a transition game because he’s great at running the floor and can also spot up. In the halfcourt game through he doesn’t bring much that I can see. He’s a bad rebounder although his size allows him to alter some shots around the rim.
I’m puzzled as to why Shep isn’t getting any burn. Right now I think he’s a better option than Novak at the 4. I’d much rather see a Grady/Nobak/Manny/Shep/Simms small ball lineup than a Stu/Merrit/Manny/Novak/Simms small ball lineup.
Very very very very very happy/impressed with Gibby’s performance yesterday. If he can play with that intensity ALL the time regardless if hes dumping in points, we will be that much better. I wouldnt be surprised if JB might have gotten into Gibby a bit to start turning it up a few notches….with the big ten sched kicking off and all I think JB knows he is going to need Gibson. A passive Gibson really hurts us, but when he hustles and exerts energy I think its much easier for him to get into the game, and feel apart of it. I also think a lot of it is match-ups..for the most part Tisdale was gaurding Gibby and I think those type of matchups are very favorable for us. Its when Gibson is matched up with a much more athletic big is when he struggles. I really wish Gibby could add a little post play to his arsenal, then he could somewhat..and I say somewhat..abuse a smaller player if matched up against. If he can continue to play at a higher level, by next year we could have a very impressive frontcourt!
I agree Ky Fox.
Question for Dylan and others:
Despite thoughts of Stu going off against Oakland in the first few minutes or the shots against UCLA/DUKE, I feel that in March I’d like to see LLP, Novak, Harris, Gibson, and Sims be the lineup with the bulk of the minutes against most teams. In small situations – Harris, Douglass, LLP, NOvak ,and sims with a little bit of grady for change of pace.
Love the +/- breakdown. I think it will start to tell us a lot more once you get a good sample size. I like testing my observations out against the numbers.
I think grady needs to start getting a lot more minutes.
It seems like our two best line ups have Grady and LLP at the guards, Harris and Sims and then either Novak or Gibson at the 4. I’d like to see Shep a little more at the 4 as well. I think Manny needs to play fewer minutes. It seems like his effort and/or concentration isn’t there all the time, especially on the defensive end.
Encouraging to See LLP get into the flow of the game and offense more against Illinois. I hope we see his assist and steal numbers go up the more comfortable he gets and as he gets into better ‘game shape’.
Hopefully we can dominate in bloomington and get some of the other guys some good minutes.
Thanks Dylan!
Robert: I was with you earlier this year on wanting more size but I’m starting to come around to the idea that Belein plays small ball and that’s okay. A lot of his old WVU teams looked undersized on paper against the big squads, and they were heavy underdogs all through their run to the elite eight one year.
I think a lineup of LLP, Douglass/Grady, Harris, Novak, and Sims can win in the big ten and the tournament. LLP and Harris are big, athletic guards who can rebound well and although Novak is undersized he boxes out well. And it would sure be a tough cover for the opposing 4 to guard him behind the 3-point line too.
Dylan: Your site is phenomenal, I check it everyday
Nice info on the defense, which is what has really been the weak point of the last two games (how do you let ANY team shoot nearly 60% for a game??).
About Merritt, anyone know how he got the black eye? Was that from the WI game?
The announcers on the Big Ten Network said that he got that in practice. At which point Jim Jackson said something like, “Hey baby, this is the Big Ten. A bunch of them should have black eyes.” Insiders, however, say that Ben Cronin gave him a round house kick to the face before the game because Merritt made fun of his purple shirt and tie.
I know we’ve all been waiting for that one game where both Stu and
Zack are feeling it and stroking threes… well I went back and looked game-by-game at the # of threes made by each of them.
Interestingly enough, a pattern is evident:
- In the season opener, neither hit a three (amazingly)
- In the next three games (which includes the games at MSG), Stu out-threed Zack 2-1, 2-0, and 1-0
- In the next game (Norfolk State), both played decently, hitting 2 threes each
- In the next three games, Zack out-threed Stu 3-0, 3-1, and 4-0
- In the next three games, Stu out-threed Zack 1-0, 4-1, and 2-0
- In the next game (NC Central), both hit 1 three
- In the next two games, Zack out-threed Stu 5-0 and 3-0
Maybe a bit confusing, but I guess what I’m saying is don’t be surprised if Novak has another great game on Wednesday but then cools off for a few games as Stu heats up.
Interesting note about Gibson being able to run the floor with Grady at the point. LLP can get up the floor very well too which was key to our late run. I love the Plus/Minus addition. Great stuff. May I suggest a minimum cumulative minutes for a lineup to make the list. Mainly to “cleanup” the list a little. Keep up the good work!
Dylan, Sorry I don’t understand what this all means. I think I just need a key (RBI = Runs Batted in). Or some explanation. Be great if you could. Love the site BTW.
Just to put my vote in, I like the +/-. I’m a numbers and stats guy, so I definitely like it if it’s not too much work.
Am I missing something, or is the only discussion here on comments to articles? No running threads or anything that is just “forum?”
Anyway, I’m surprised that Manny isn’t seeing much 4 on defense. I know he is not a banger necessarily, but he’s tall, can block shots and rebound and always seems to get good position. Just seems like that would solve some of our size issues when only one of the Sims / Gibson combo is in. I know this is a ridiculous comparison, but on my AA rec team, our two biggest guys play the 1 and 2 on offense and the 4 and 5 on defense and it works pretty well.
I love the +/- stats as well. That’s unbelievable info for us stat junkies.
I agree with Andy about Sims at the 4. I think JB should give that a whirl to see what it would look like. Sims has the athleticism to be disruptive down on the block.
Looks like M is out of both polls this week. As are WI, IL, & OSU.
(C’mon voters, the B10 is more of a BBall conf. now)
Ah well, still early in the season.
Michigan not being in the top 25 may be the best thing for them at “this” time, because it allows them to play and get better without having that “target” on their backs because of their national ranking. They don’t need more unecessary pressure, while they’re getting their chemistry together. [Remember they've struggled against weak teams]
Non ranked teams always get up for ranked teams. Let Michigan fly under the radar for a while, get better and then make a push for the big dance with a low ranking as we go through the second half of the B10 season.
Dylan,
Minor suggestion: please add descriptive popups to the header columns of your tables. Otherwise a lot (most?) of people will not understand what those stats are supposed to be about. The popups can be achieved simply by using the TITLE attribute of the TD tags used for the header. Example: Min
Honestly, “Min” and “+/-” are the only columns that I understand what they’re supposed to mean without looking at the post where you describe everything.
My example’s not very useful as html tags are stripped from comments, but I’m guessing you already knew what I was talking about.