Basics:
Who: Michigan (10-3) vs Illinois (13-1)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Sunday, January 4th Noon ET
TV: BTN
Preview: Stat Sheet
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)
January is far too early to call a game a must win but this is one that Michigan could definitely use. It certainly won’t be easy, Illinois comes in riding high at 13-1 after stealing a win in West Lafayette. Michigan on the other hand is looking to bounce back after being handled by Wisconsin at home.
This one matches up one of the conference’s best offenses (Michigan) versus one of the conference’s best defenses (Illinois). Both teams are coming off frustrating seasons which saw them tied near the bottom of the Big Ten standings at 5-13. While both teams’ strengths differ they like to play at about the same pace, 65 possessions per game.
On offense Illinois does a very good job of passing the ball, 71.8% of their field goals come off of assists (1st in the country). They also shoot a lot more 2 point shots (71.4%)Â than three point shots but surprisingly don’t get to the line very well. Their offense’s bread and butter is the mid-range jumpshot.
On defense Illinois holds their opponents to 26.3% on three pointers (3rd in the country), this is scary for a team like Michigan who relies on the three. Illinois also forces turnovers on 24.4% of their opponents possessions and holds opponents to an eFG% of 43.3% (28th) while still keeping opponents off the line with a free throw rate of 28% (37th). Illinois’ opponents have shot 33-86 (57%) at the free throw line this year and this is the second lowest percentage in the country. Illinois clearly has no control over how opponents shoot at the stripe but hopefully Michigan can escape the curse at the line.
In terms of personnel the Illini are the definition of balanced with 4 starters averaging 12.1 ppg: Trent Meacham, Mike Davis, Demetri McCamey, and Mike Tisdale. Meacham and McCamey make up the 3 guard backcourt along with senior point guard Chester Frazier who focuses on distributing (6.5apg) more than scoring (5.9 ppg). Davis and Tisdale bring size and skill to the front court. Tisdale is a 7 f00ter who loves to step out and stick the mid range jumper. Davis is 6-10 and averages almost 8 rebounds per game while shooting 53.4% from the field.
Overall Illinois doesn’t have the kind of size at every position that Wisconsin did but they still have two very skilled big men in the post that could give Michigan fits. Michigan is going to need a big game from DeShawn Sims and even then he might need some help. Novak (6′5″) against Mike Davis (6′10″) is going to be an issue so I would expect Beilein to do some tinkering.
The advantage for Michigan might be on the wing, McCamey is strong but he doesn’t match Manny Harris in terms of height. I wouldn’t be surprised to see sixth man Calvin Brock get a lot of time to try and slow down Manny. Over the last few years Brock has started plenty of games and he played 28.5 minutes per game last year versus Michigan.
There is another guy on the Illini bench that Michigan fans are all too familiar with, sophomore guard Alex Legion. Legion is averaging 5.5 ppg and 2rpg but he is shooting only 33% from the field in his four games back. Legion has been around the block after two Michigan commitments, a year at Oak Hill, and a stint at Kentucky. Through it all though the scouting report on Alex is the same: good shooter, poor shot selection, and lackluster defense. It’s a pretty good bet that Alex will be the Maize Rage’s “bum of the game”.
The good news for Michigan is that they have played some of their better games after a loss including the upset of Duke after a frustrating loss at Maryland. The bad news is that Illinois is playing very well and this is another student break game. I think Michigan has let their offense dictate their defense lately and it’s absolutely critical to get out of the gates with a good start, hit a couple shots and get a couple stops and set the tone.
Let’s hear thoughts and predictions in the comments, KenPom has the Illini 67-63. Michigan is going to need help from the big two as well as some of the role players. I’d also like to see Laval Lucas-Perry have a good game but most of all a solid second half.
UM 68 Ill 54.
They remember that they were winning by playing hard and together. Hopefully they don’t forget it. They won’t scare anyone by just showing up.
Also Manny remembers how makes his teammates better by passing when he penetrates. Grady remembers it too.
These 2 guys are the key to NCAA or NIT.
Reading your preview scares the crap out of me… the only encouraging thing seems to be the fact that we’ve played well after our two previous losses (routing Norfolk State and beating Duke).
A balanced team that nails mid-range jumpers and plays sound, fundamental defense… sounds a lot like what we were saying about Wisconsin after Wednesday’s game. 3rd in the country at defending the three? Yikes. A starting frontline with one guy 7 feet and one 6′10″, potentially going against 6′8″ Peedi and 6′5″ Novak? Yikes.
While the numbers, momentum, and matchups look bleak, I’m counting on an emotional advantage to get us over the hump tomorrow. These guys do not want to surrender 2 home losses to start the Big Ten season, and I know that they are eager to stick it to Legion. This game is key.
M 60 Ill 58. Manny makes up for his bad game vs Wisconsin and takes over for us.
I agree, Giddings, that is one scary preview. But I think Shep and Gibson play quite a bit (40 combined minutes), to help on defense. Novak still starts though, we see lots of very effective 1-3-1 and the Wolverines pull of a nice win 78-66.
Bonus prediction: Stu gets his mojo back and pitches in 15 for the good guys.
Illini 68 – Michigan 66
This is going to be another rough one.
Ill 72 Mich 66 Tisdale and Davis have their way with us. Still in no way do I think a loss dooms our season.
It’s also very odd that we play both of our games against Illinois in 10 days. A loss doesn’t doom us but starting with 2 home losses isn’t the way to go.
Michigan win by 10.
I’m hoping that their defensive numbers against the 3 are because they push way out and pressure the line. That will then open up the back door cuts when have not been hitting recently as teams have packed it in the lane. Wisconsin was absurdly keyed in on Manny driving, I’m sure Beilein has adjusted to this and we will see some good assist numbers in this game from him.
Our defense is what really worries me. we might have to outscore them and hope they don’t shoot as well as Wisconsin did. I think Illinois drops back a little after their great game against purdue and Michigan plays better after a disappointing loss.
Michigan wins by 5 to 10, game in the high 60’s.
bball: You are right, teams that pressure the ball outside the lane open up the backdoor. Wisconsin had so much size that they could really pack it inside and made it hard for a backdoor, frankly I just don’t like the way we match up against Wisconsin.
One aside… I heard people saying (when Beilein was hired) that Michigan was aiming for “Wisconsin+” or something a long those lines. At this point it’s very clear that our styles are very different. Then again “Wisconsin+” doesn’t really seem like it would be that bad in my book…
Wisconsin plays a completely different game. I won’t get into it, BUT… I don’t think we will ever be successful against Wisconsin while Beilein is here. It’s not a knock against JB, but they are just good at exposing any minor defensive flaws in a team, and we clearly have some.
Hughes always seems to hit the most wild shots, and Landry is just a solid banger.
With that said, I expect us to look much better against Illinois tomorrow, and I think we win by 5-7 points. Should be a fun game, although the Tisdale/Davis tandem is scary. Meachem doesn’t scare me too much, but I think he’ll hit 2 threes tomorrow. McCamey is difficult guard because of his size and weight, but is not a consistent outside shooter.
I expect to see Illinois come out with some zone defense off the bat, and I’d really like to see Grady get extended minutes at the point. Douglass is due for a hot game, and I have a feeling he gets 8-10 points tomorrow.
Will Douglass/Novak be “hot” in the same game?
How will the team respond if we come into the half down a few points?
My guess is the team plays a very intensive game (like the Duke game) and hopefully there is a big and rowdy crowd tomorrow.
Michigan 68
Illinois 62
(1) manny needs to realize that driving to the hoop is not alone sufficient. he needs to dump it off to sims or kick it outside if he can’t draw the foul or get a clean shot. seeing as illinois’ d is excellent, you can expect that like wisco they wont just bail him out every time he gets in the paint.
(2) beilein needs to figure out his line-ups. having cj lee guarding guys 6-7 and taller in the post clearly doesn’t cut it. what happened to shepherd? why not play more of gibson and sims together when size is needed?
(3) i think we win.
Classes don’t start until Thursday, right? So I’m assuming the Maize Rage will be about the same as it was against Wisky, which is unfortunate.
Unfortunately I don’t see us winning this game. Illinois is coming off a big win @ Purdue and we are coming off a disappointing loss.
I really think the key to this game is Gibson, which is scary. He is going to get some extra minutes for defensive purposes. If he can stay out of foul trouble, play solid defense and chip in 8-10 points with a few offensive rebounds, we have a shot.
Also on Manny, I might be hallucinating but he led the team in assists against Wisconsin and also had a couple “should have been assists” in my opinion. He definitely drove a lot and didn’t shoot a high percentage but I don’t think he was necessarily a ball hog. If he makes a couple more shots and gets fouled on a couple of those drives Michigan is in that game. He played badly but he has been doing a great job passing the ball this year, so I would expect him to keep hitting open shooters.
Line opened at Michigan +1, has moved to Michigan -1.5. I guess Vegas likes Michigan… They are more confident than I am.
Lousy weather depresses the M crowd (which already is trying to recover from depression), and the necessary intensity is not quite there. M plays better than it did against Wisky, and Illinois plays worse than it did against PU. Result:
Illinois 60
Michigsn 57
Hope I’m wrong.
I don’t think the crowd will be small. The athletic department smartly offered a 2-for-1 deal (buy a ticket for this game, get one for another game, I think), which should be enough to draw a fair number of people. I am concerned, though, that the start time (noon) will result in a lot of late arrivals. IMO, the Big Ten shouldn’t schedule Sunday games before 1 p.m.
Like Walt said, freezing rain expected in the am, that’s a big negative for the crowd, especially in an early game. Make your way out though if you can.
I hate break games
DeShawn is the key, both offensively and defensively. He needs to be a beast on the boards. Would like to see LLP and Shepherd start.
Would a lineup of LLP, Novak, Harris, Shep and Sims work? I don’t think this offense requires a true PG (and Merritt doesn’t really give you that anyway), and hopefully these guys could defend/rebound better. Grady, Douglass, Gibson, Lee and Merritt could all add something off the bench.
2 break games at home to start the conf season
that blows
ILL 74 , Mich 72
Unlike the WI game, definitely need the home crowd to make some noise today!
Ill 84 Mich 68
Rebounding and cold shooting will be the difference….
Will Regan with another big game.
http://www.buffalonews.com/spo.....39711.html
Do you guys know if the game is streaming anywhere?
Jim burr and Steve welmer are the refs… Not a good sign, especially after jim burr called the maize rage the worst student section in the country last year.
is this game online anywhere?
Illinois is playing Michigan’s game right now. They have only gone in the post once.
Novak just can’t guard Davis in the post but he’s working. 31-29 ill with 3;49.
Stu and Sheppard seem to be the odd men out of the rotation. Suprisisng.
Novak!!! Super stud!!
NOvak is way overmatched at the 4. I’m not going to lie though, i love him in the starting lineup. That three would have been huge by LLP at the buzzer.
Defense needs to step up we are getting burned on switches and Illinois is getting way too many wide open looks.
A pretty piss poor defensive effort. There’s no way we shoot that well in the second half. Beilein is going to have to make some big time adjustments. Offensively I’d like to see us get at least some post touches but other than that no complaints.
another note: LLP with 5 assists at the half
once again length hurting us and once again our d (combined with hot shooting) is creating ~60% fg shooting. i suppose it’s possible to win despite this but sure makes it hard. and btw deja vu on llp missing that big 3 before half.
Is every team going to shoot 60% against us? I know that we are giving them open looks, but we could really use an opponent cold streak now and again.
I too am surprised we aren’t seeing Shephard play anymore. I guess he is only being subbed for Novak and it’s hard to take mini-Larry Bird out of the game right now. We need a few fast break points too, but our defense doesn’t seem to create anything.
I’m amazed that Novak, who is being asked to do what he shouldn’t (play low post D), is not letting that effect his offense. I love this kids. Criticizing him for not playing good low post D is not fair. You know he shouldn’t be there, I know he shouldn’t be there and Coach knows he shouldn’t be there, but that is the team we have.
Man, that was a sick block by Manny.
starting to think beilein
needs to realize b10 refs will let players bang
without calling fouls
Gibson, throw it down big man! Just try not to break your ass.
Legion killed our momentum with that three and has been a major thorn in our side today.
liking the play of Gibson
On the radio broadcast Matt Shepperd has mentioned a couple times that Legion’s mom is being quite obnoxious.
legion’s mom being obnoxious
doesn’t surprise me
Freaking Luving the play of Gibson
Yes, welcome back Gibby!
Nice job on a few penetration layups by Laval and Grady
Good to see some paint presence and defense today. This was a must win game. So is Wednesdays’ game against IU. You cannot lose to Indiana, even on the road.
Great win!! Our offense is legit! It tops one of the best Ds in the country today.
great 2nd half! All around! Gibson was huge. We need him to play like this if we want to be very successful down the line.
Wooo! HUGE win. This game scared the crap out of me with their size and perimeter D. Great to see us rise to the occasion.
That should give Gibson some confidence moving forward. I still wouldn’t mind seeing Shep play some. Check out these two woman commentators on the BTN. Pretty hot!
Today will be a Zack Gibson hate free day!! He gets nothing but props from me today for how he played, even though it was an outter body experience!!
Gibson/Sims line up was the key. Go blue.
can i call gibby Hambone?
going to Indiana
we will have some players with black eyes
good to see
means they are playing with tenacity
Big big win. Great way to bounce back. Gotta take care of business on the road now.
Speaking of Hambone, he was at the Wisco game.
Attendance: 12,912 with the students still on break. We’re getting there.
I agree that it was a big win, and a great game by Gibson. I didn’t think that our offense was very fluid, and I worry that we still depend too much on 3s and timely steals (I realize that 3s are and will be a staple of our offense).
Man, what an exciting game!
About as much of a “must win” as a team can have in the 2nd game of conference play.
Defense stepped up in the 2nd half and that led to transition buckets.
Can’t say enough good things about Novak. He is a hard nosed player that somehow manages to bang on the inside on defense and then has a dead-eye on offense.
Peedi didn’t play that well but Gibson stepped up big time in the 2nd half to give UM an inside presence. Can’t believe I just said Gibson and “defensive presence” in the same sentence.
Wow.
Manny played well on the glass and in transition, struggled in the half-court but defenses are focusing on him from here on out so guys will have to step up.
I have no clue what coach did at half-time to spark the great defense in the 2nd half, but it worked to perfection.
Speaking of black eyes. Did anybody see Merritts eye? From where I was sitting, it looked like he had a black eye. Just curious if anybody knew anything about it.
Yeah, he got the black eye in practice.