Comments on: Sorting Out The Big Ten http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/sorting-out-the-big-ten/ An Unofficial University of Michigan Basketball Blog Fri, 19 Mar 2010 00:08:03 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Pete http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/sorting-out-the-big-ten/comment-page-1/#comment-17696 Pete Wed, 31 Dec 2008 12:29:55 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=894#comment-17696 Based on the Illini's upset of Purdue on the road last night, I'd say that the conference is a toss-up from 1 to 8. I'm including a surprising Penn State team in the mix. Here's how I see things shaking out: 1. MSU - too much frontcourt 2. Purdue - Illini upset aside, they'll come around 3. Wisconsin - Badgers always find a way... 4. Illinois - I was impressed last night 5. Michigan - As a long-time season ticket holder, I have healthy skeptism. When Sims came up limping against NCCU, the season flashed before my eyes. A big man away from doing damaging. Where's Udoh when you need him? 6. Ohio State - Lots of talent on this team...but Lighty loss hurts 7. Minnesota - Prove me wrong Tubby! 8. Penn State - Watched them play...not your father's PSU cagers 9. Iowa - Lickliter works magic. Watch out here. 10. Northwestern - It's Northwestern 11. Indiana - Uhhh...no. Despite the parity and impressive early non-conference wins, I see only five B-10 teams getting to the dance. Once there, the B-10 will have to shake off the stigma of being historical tourney underachievers. You can calculate the actual wins a coach, team or conference records in the tourney against the projected number of wins based on seeding. It's called PASE (performance against seed expectations) and you can find out all about it at www.bracketscience.com. The Big Ten ranks fourth among the top six Power conferences in PASE. Its 133 teams have fallen short of seed-projected wins by six games, for a PASE of -.045. If they tank this year and the Big 12 overachieves against seed expectations, the B-10 could fall to fifth, beating out only the Pac-10. Now here's the good news: Michigan is the top overachieving B-10 team, with a PASE of +.364. Among teams with at least 10 tourney appearances, that ranks sixth behind Florida, Louisville, UNLV, Duke and Villanova. Not bad company. And here's more encouraging news for Michigan. Among coaches with at least four tourney appearances, John Beilein is the top PASE overachiever, with a whopping PASE of +.865. That means he nearly wins, on average, one more game per tourney than his seeding suggests he should. Beilein barely beats out a familiar face. Steve Fisher is second on the all-time 64-team tourney PASE list at +.853. Rounding out the top five is Rick Pitino, Billy Donovan, and Tom Izzo. Lots more where this came from at www.bracketscience.com Based on the Illini’s upset of Purdue on the road last night, I’d say that the conference is a toss-up from 1 to 8. I’m including a surprising Penn State team in the mix. Here’s how I see things shaking out:

1. MSU – too much frontcourt
2. Purdue – Illini upset aside, they’ll come around
3. Wisconsin – Badgers always find a way…
4. Illinois – I was impressed last night
5. Michigan – As a long-time season ticket holder, I have healthy skeptism. When Sims came up limping against NCCU, the season flashed before my eyes. A big man away from doing damaging. Where’s Udoh when you need him?
6. Ohio State – Lots of talent on this team…but Lighty loss hurts
7. Minnesota – Prove me wrong Tubby!
8. Penn State – Watched them play…not your father’s PSU cagers
9. Iowa – Lickliter works magic. Watch out here.
10. Northwestern – It’s Northwestern
11. Indiana – Uhhh…no.

Despite the parity and impressive early non-conference wins, I see only five B-10 teams getting to the dance. Once there, the B-10 will have to shake off the stigma of being historical tourney underachievers. You can calculate the actual wins a coach, team or conference records in the tourney against the projected number of wins based on seeding. It’s called PASE (performance against seed expectations) and you can find out all about it at http://www.bracketscience.com. The Big Ten ranks fourth among the top six Power conferences in PASE. Its 133 teams have fallen short of seed-projected wins by six games, for a PASE of -.045.

If they tank this year and the Big 12 overachieves against seed expectations, the B-10 could fall to fifth, beating out only the Pac-10. Now here’s the good news: Michigan is the top overachieving B-10 team, with a PASE of +.364. Among teams with at least 10 tourney appearances, that ranks sixth behind Florida, Louisville, UNLV, Duke and Villanova. Not bad company.

And here’s more encouraging news for Michigan. Among coaches with at least four tourney appearances, John Beilein is the top PASE overachiever, with a whopping PASE of +.865. That means he nearly wins, on average, one more game per tourney than his seeding suggests he should. Beilein barely beats out a familiar face. Steve Fisher is second on the all-time 64-team tourney PASE list at +.853. Rounding out the top five is Rick Pitino, Billy Donovan, and Tom Izzo. Lots more where this came from at http://www.bracketscience.com

]]> By: Bluebufoon http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/sorting-out-the-big-ten/comment-page-1/#comment-17627 Bluebufoon Wed, 31 Dec 2008 00:18:10 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=894#comment-17627 I love the enthusiasim for Michigan basketball-- hell I predicted 23 rgular season victories for this team, before the season started. I thought we would beat SIU and Maryland and be 10-2 to start and the Big Ten schedule is very favorable for U-M but I digress. I hope we aren't getting overconfident and making the huge mistake of underestimating our opponents-- even though U-M has improved and again our schedule is favorable, Michigan's margin of error is so small I'm afraid if the kids lose their edge this season can quickly spiral out of control. Beat Wisconsin !!!!! I love the enthusiasim for Michigan basketball– hell I predicted 23
rgular season victories for this team, before the season started. I thought we would beat SIU and Maryland and be 10-2 to start and the Big Ten schedule is very favorable for U-M but I digress. I hope we aren’t getting overconfident and making the huge mistake of underestimating our opponents– even though U-M has improved and again our schedule is favorable, Michigan’s margin of error is so small
I’m afraid if the kids lose their edge this season can quickly spiral out of control.

Beat Wisconsin !!!!!

]]> By: JimC http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/sorting-out-the-big-ten/comment-page-1/#comment-17611 JimC Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:37:18 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=894#comment-17611 Maybe it's because of M's resurgence, but this looks like the best Big10 season in at least ten years. I'm pulling for anyone but Sparty at the top! ha Maybe it’s because of M’s resurgence, but this looks like the best Big10 season in at least ten years.

I’m pulling for anyone but Sparty at the top! ha

]]> By: Dylan http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/sorting-out-the-big-ten/comment-page-1/#comment-17597 Dylan Tue, 30 Dec 2008 21:55:59 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=894#comment-17597 Thanks for the link Josh, added it to the bottom of the +/- post. Thanks for the link Josh, added it to the bottom of the +/- post.

]]> By: Josh http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/sorting-out-the-big-ten/comment-page-1/#comment-17593 Josh Tue, 30 Dec 2008 21:44:20 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=894#comment-17593 OT a good read http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=oneil_dana&id=3799411 OT a good read
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/.....id=3799411

]]> By: Avery Queens http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/sorting-out-the-big-ten/comment-page-1/#comment-17590 Avery Queens Tue, 30 Dec 2008 19:56:57 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=894#comment-17590 Losing Lighty will be big and obviously their loss to WVU was horrid but I would expect Mullens to continue improving and Evan Turner has shown that he can single-handedly take over games, so I wouldn't put the Bucks so low. I do agree with Minnesota though. How good are big ten coaches? Losing Lighty will be big and obviously their loss to WVU was horrid but I would expect Mullens to continue improving and Evan Turner has shown that he can single-handedly take over games, so I wouldn’t put the Bucks so low. I do agree with Minnesota though. How good are big ten coaches?

]]> By: ryan http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/sorting-out-the-big-ten/comment-page-1/#comment-17587 ryan Tue, 30 Dec 2008 19:43:47 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=894#comment-17587 I don't know if it has been mentioned, or if anyone has noticed, but Deshawn Sims ranks 3rd in points per game and 1st in rebounds per game. Manny Harris ranks 2nd in points per game and also 2nd in rebounds per game. This is after last night in big ten stats. I don’t know if it has been mentioned, or if anyone has noticed, but Deshawn Sims ranks 3rd in points per game and 1st in rebounds per game.
Manny Harris ranks 2nd in points per game and also 2nd in rebounds per game.
This is after last night in big ten stats.

]]> By: Mith http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/sorting-out-the-big-ten/comment-page-1/#comment-17581 Mith Tue, 30 Dec 2008 19:13:40 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=894#comment-17581 I agree with the basic layout, Dylan. I think MSU and Purdue are clearly the top 2 teams, and those next 5 all could contend but will probably settle into the 3 through 7 spots. If I was going to predict, I would drop Minnesota abit, but really its a crapshoot. I suspect in the end there will be 6 teams with strong NCAA cases(one of the 7 is bound to disappoint). Hopefully the B10 will merit that many bids this year. With the strong non-conference showing, I bet it will. I would be wildly happy with a top 4 finish for the Wolverines. I think its very possible, although certainly no sure thing. I agree with the basic layout, Dylan. I think MSU and Purdue are clearly the top 2 teams, and those next 5 all could contend but will probably settle into the 3 through 7 spots. If I was going to predict, I would drop Minnesota abit, but really its a crapshoot.

I suspect in the end there will be 6 teams with strong NCAA cases(one of the 7 is bound to disappoint). Hopefully the B10 will merit that many bids this year. With the strong non-conference showing, I bet it will.

I would be wildly happy with a top 4 finish for the Wolverines. I think its very possible, although certainly no sure thing.

]]> By: Wolverine3 http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/sorting-out-the-big-ten/comment-page-1/#comment-17576 Wolverine3 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 18:22:01 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=894#comment-17576 Take Minn and put them below Wisky and I agree with everything else. I might put Wisky above Ill but not sure yet. Take Minn and put them below Wisky and I agree with everything else.

I might put Wisky above Ill but not sure yet.

]]>