Comments on: NC Central Plus/Minus http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/nc-central-plusminus/ Michigan Basketball News, Recruiting, and Analysis Fri, 24 Jun 2011 03:53:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: Tim http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/nc-central-plusminus/comment-page-1/#comment-9860 Tim Wed, 31 Dec 2008 18:25:03 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=934#comment-9860 Dylan, I noted the times for each lineup in the NC Central UFR if you care to add them up and see how often each set of 5 played in the game. Dylan, I noted the times for each lineup in the NC Central UFR if you care to add them up and see how often each set of 5 played in the game.

]]> By: Evan http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/nc-central-plusminus/comment-page-1/#comment-9859 Evan Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:26:24 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=934#comment-9859 I like the number-based stuff, but as long as we're putting up our wish lists, I wouldn't mind seeing a more qualitative analysis. Example: X lineup was on the floor when opponent goes on a 10 point run, Beilein makes subsititutions so Y lineup is on the floor and those substitutions work or they don't work. Maybe go a little deeper - 10 point run by hitting threes, by pushing the ball, by pounding it inside, etc. - so we can see if Beilein is getting the results he expects from his substitutions. The best line-up from a statistical standpoint might not show us the best line-up in a specific situation, unless you got way too complicated, but some analysis of what is going on in the game and how the line-up changes to adjust to the game would give us insight into how well Beilein understands his players and can maximize their effectiveness. Evan I like the number-based stuff, but as long as we’re putting up our wish lists, I wouldn’t mind seeing a more qualitative analysis. Example: X lineup was on the floor when opponent goes on a 10 point run, Beilein makes subsititutions so Y lineup is on the floor and those substitutions work or they don’t work. Maybe go a little deeper – 10 point run by hitting threes, by pushing the ball, by pounding it inside, etc. – so we can see if Beilein is getting the results he expects from his substitutions. The best line-up from a statistical standpoint might not show us the best line-up in a specific situation, unless you got way too complicated, but some analysis of what is going on in the game and how the line-up changes to adjust to the game would give us insight into how well Beilein understands his players and can maximize their effectiveness.

Evan

]]> By: stinky http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/nc-central-plusminus/comment-page-1/#comment-9858 stinky Wed, 31 Dec 2008 14:18:40 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=934#comment-9858 I like the addition of the + - lineup stats! I like the addition of the + – lineup stats!

]]> By: 90 M varsity http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/nc-central-plusminus/comment-page-1/#comment-9857 90 M varsity Wed, 31 Dec 2008 05:59:21 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=934#comment-9857 +/- is interesting info, but I don't know how much you can take from it because the majority of the guys who are a +20 line up are also in the -7 line up. I like the individual +/- numbers, but there are so many variables that I don't know what you can take from them unless you just have a guy or two who is always a minus player. Fun to read though. +/- is interesting info, but I don’t know how much you can take from it because the majority of the guys who are a +20 line up are also in the -7 line up.

I like the individual +/- numbers, but there are so many variables that I don’t know what you can take from them unless you just have a guy or two who is always a minus player. Fun to read though.

]]> By: Adam http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/nc-central-plusminus/comment-page-1/#comment-9856 Adam Wed, 31 Dec 2008 04:30:51 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=934#comment-9856 I'd be willing to bet that he does. He may only present them with the bigger +/- differences but we had something similar when I played. It's not that difficult to figure out and you know coaches watch that tape at least 3 times of every game. I’d be willing to bet that he does. He may only present them with the bigger +/- differences but we had something similar when I played. It’s not that difficult to figure out and you know coaches watch that tape at least 3 times of every game.

]]> By: Giddings http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/nc-central-plusminus/comment-page-1/#comment-9855 Giddings Wed, 31 Dec 2008 04:24:37 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=934#comment-9855 Forgot to add one thing - does anyone think that Beilein does a similar sort of analysis for his teams? It would be interesting to find out... Forgot to add one thing – does anyone think that Beilein does a similar sort of analysis for his teams? It would be interesting to find out…

]]> By: Giddings http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/nc-central-plusminus/comment-page-1/#comment-9854 Giddings Wed, 31 Dec 2008 03:52:05 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=934#comment-9854 GREAT stuff Dylan... I remember craving a +/- breakdown after the Duke game and although it took a little while it's finally here! I also agree with Andy on the normalization method, and agree with everyone on compiling the info over several games. I'm not sure how much time it took to do the breakdown for this particular game, but if we had this after every game it would be amazing. For individuals: raw +/-, minutes, adjusted +/- (for that game only) raw +/-, minutes, adjusted +/- (cumulative / season) For lineups: raw +/-, minutes, adjusted +/- (for that game only) raw +/-, minutes, adjusted +/- (cumulative / season) Heck, if it's too much work for you I'd be glad to help out. These kind of stats, in my opinion, are right up there with Ken Pomeroy's stuff (albeit a little more simple) as far as revealing the truths about a team and its players. Also, I agree that this is 10x better than the play-by-play breakdown. Please please stick to this. Let's pack Crisler tomorrow, folks! GREAT stuff Dylan… I remember craving a +/- breakdown after the Duke game and although it took a little while it’s finally here!

I also agree with Andy on the normalization method, and agree with everyone on compiling the info over several games. I’m not sure how much time it took to do the breakdown for this particular game, but if we had this after every game it would be amazing.

For individuals:
raw +/-, minutes, adjusted +/- (for that game only)
raw +/-, minutes, adjusted +/- (cumulative / season)
For lineups:
raw +/-, minutes, adjusted +/- (for that game only)
raw +/-, minutes, adjusted +/- (cumulative / season)

Heck, if it’s too much work for you I’d be glad to help out. These kind of stats, in my opinion, are right up there with Ken Pomeroy’s stuff (albeit a little more simple) as far as revealing the truths about a team and its players.

Also, I agree that this is 10x better than the play-by-play breakdown. Please please stick to this.

Let’s pack Crisler tomorrow, folks!

]]> By: Erik http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/nc-central-plusminus/comment-page-1/#comment-9853 Erik Wed, 31 Dec 2008 03:39:58 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=934#comment-9853 I like the +/- but will hope that you can expand it to include other stats. Ultimately points is what matters, and +/- is the best indicator for the score, but I think things like assist to turnover ratio, FG%, etc are very telling stats and it would be interesting to see those broken down by unit to see how efficiently they are operating. If you wanted to stick with the +/- thing, then maybe +1 for an assist -1 for a TO. For FG percentage maybe +1 for a FG, +1.5 for a 3 pointer and then -1 and -1.5 for the misses? I'm no math major, so maybe those need tweaking. I don't think +/- is the best way to capture the efficiency for those stats, but having some way to break down those key stats by unit would be very interesting to me. I like the +/- but will hope that you can expand it to include other stats.

Ultimately points is what matters, and +/- is the best indicator for the score, but I think things like assist to turnover ratio, FG%, etc are very telling stats and it would be interesting to see those broken down by unit to see how efficiently they are operating.

If you wanted to stick with the +/- thing, then maybe +1 for an assist -1 for a TO. For FG percentage maybe +1 for a FG, +1.5 for a 3 pointer and then -1 and -1.5 for the misses?

I’m no math major, so maybe those need tweaking. I don’t think +/- is the best way to capture the efficiency for those stats, but having some way to break down those key stats by unit would be very interesting to me.

]]> By: FL Wolve http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/nc-central-plusminus/comment-page-1/#comment-9852 FL Wolve Wed, 31 Dec 2008 02:38:20 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=934#comment-9852 I love the +/- numbers. That is really good info. I bet if you went back and did the same thing for the Oakland and FGCU games you would get similar results. Just a couple of points that I have noticed over the past few weeks which are confirmed by this analysis 1. The team is playing considerably better when Grady is in the game. Merritt is really starting to struggle on both ends but probably more so on the defensive side. 2. LLP is able to get his when he's in the game but he's not facilitating for his teammates. He has zero assists in 3 games. The offense really seems to bog down when he's in the game. He's either hitting a shot or they're not scoring at all. 3. I think the Novak number is obviously inflated by this one game. It seems like in the prior 2 games where he played PF the team struggled with him at the PF. 4. I understand Shepherd's minutes were cut for Novak but he hasn't really been playing poorly. I still think we need Shepherd playing more PF minutes for us (I just wish he could make those wide open 3 pointers). Great job on the analysis Dylan. I'm looking forward to this kind of stuff after every game. You've set the bar pretty high now. I love the +/- numbers. That is really good info. I bet if you went back and did the same thing for the Oakland and FGCU games you would get similar results. Just a couple of points that I have noticed over the past few weeks which are confirmed by this analysis

1. The team is playing considerably better when Grady is in the game. Merritt is really starting to struggle on both ends but probably more so on the defensive side.
2. LLP is able to get his when he’s in the game but he’s not facilitating for his teammates. He has zero assists in 3 games. The offense really seems to bog down when he’s in the game. He’s either hitting a shot or they’re not scoring at all.
3. I think the Novak number is obviously inflated by this one game. It seems like in the prior 2 games where he played PF the team struggled with him at the PF.
4. I understand Shepherd’s minutes were cut for Novak but he hasn’t really been playing poorly. I still think we need Shepherd playing more PF minutes for us (I just wish he could make those wide open 3 pointers).

Great job on the analysis Dylan. I’m looking forward to this kind of stuff after every game. You’ve set the bar pretty high now.

]]> By: Dylan http://www.umhoops.com/2008/12/30/nc-central-plusminus/comment-page-1/#comment-9851 Dylan Wed, 31 Dec 2008 02:25:44 +0000 http://www.umhoops.com/?p=934#comment-9851 Yea just watched the game, Big Ten is gonna be tough every night. We better bring it tomorrow because you know Bo Ryan's boys will be fired up. Yea just watched the game, Big Ten is gonna be tough every night. We better bring it tomorrow because you know Bo Ryan’s boys will be fired up.

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