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Welcome back to Big Ten basketball. Wisconsin won a 59 possession game thanks to 58.7% shooting from the field. It’s definitely too early for Michigan fans to jump off the bandwagon because Wisconsin is going to do that to a lot of teams this year and Michigan has 17 more Big Ten contests yet to go.

Wisconsin posted their third highest offensive efficiency of the season at 123.7 and Michigan posted their fourth lowest at 103.4. Wisconsin came out hot and got out to an early 12 point lead and while Michigan made runs, Wisconsin answered every one of them and hit big shot after big shot to keep Michigan out of the game. There aren’t many teams who can execute as well as Wisconsin did today on offense, they methodically picked Michigan apart.

Before the game I said the key for Michigan was pace and forcing a more uptempo style. A 59 possession game is just what Wisconsin wanted, they wound the shot clock down time after time and still managed to get their shots. Michigan’s defense certainly needs work and there are a couple things I didn’t like today on the defensive side of the ball. First off, Michigan abandoned the 1-3-1 pretty early on, I think they need the 1-3-1 to force some turnovers and they just didn’t do that today. The man-to-man defense today had us switching on every screen and I don’t know that I liked that so much either. This team isn’t going to be dominant defensively but they are going to need to do better in this conference. Wisconsin hit some tough shots but they got a far too many good looks.

Looking at the four factors there is only one that Wisconsin won handily: shooting. Wisconsin shot an eFG% of 65.2% to Michigan’s 47.1%. Turnovers were low for both teams, Wisconsin posted the 2nd lowest turnover percentage of any of Michigan’s opponents this year. Michigan lost the rebound battle 30-26 but they did a good job on the defensive glass and Wisconsin only rebounded 13.6% of their misses. Free throw rate was a tieand in the end Michigan really needed to get to the line more than they did to have a chance.

Even though Wisconsin led for the whole game there were a couple chances for Michigan to get back in it. Michigan was on the cusp several times but they just missed some wide open looks. The Laval Lucas-Perry three at the end of the first half comes to mind along with several others but I think it’s at least encouraging that we got some really good looks.

It’s always frustrating to lose at home, especially to lose a game this way where you are down start to finish. But in the end it’s just one game and it’s too early to jump off any cliffs. Purdue and Minnesota both lost on their home courts and they are both good teams. I made the mistake of underestimating Wisconsin in my Big Ten predictions and they showed why today. Michigan isn’t the only team that will lose to Wisconsin but this loss makes Sunday’s contest against Illinois a big one.

Player Bullets:

• Zack Novak: Wow, how did Zack Novak have no scholarship offers coming out of high school. Zack is just a warrior and he played his heart out today. Novak had a career high 20 points on 7-11 (5-8 3pt) shooting and also pulled down a game high 8 rebounds. I questioned Novak’s rebounding but he can flat out get after it whether he is out matched in height or athleticism. Zack single handily kept us in this game and it was an admirable performance in a day that didn’t have many.
• Manny Harris: Frustrating night for Manny to say the least. Manny was 3-13 (0-2) and 4-6 on free throws with 6 boards. Manny just wasn’t getting the foul calls when he was driving to the lane but he just kept putting his head down and driving. Manny’s game relies on getting the line but he just can’t let the refs get in his head like he did today.
• DeShawn Sims: Peedi had 14 points on 5-6 shooting in 29 minutes but just never really seemed like a factor. I wasn’t impressed by his defense and it seemed like he got beat quite a bit. I think he might have been fighting a cold (he was wearing a nasal strip) but he’s going to need stronger performances as Michigan’s only real big man.
• Stu Douglass: Stu was 0-5 and it just wasn’t his night. It was interesting that Beilein went with Stu running the point for stretches today, I think it was an attempt to match a little of Wisconsin’s size. Stu had a couple good looks but he they just weren’t falling. Stu did have 2 assists to 0 turnovers so he didn’t appear to be an awful answer at the point.
• Laval Lucas-Perry: LLP played a career high in minutes with 30 but wasn’t hitting his shots either. LLP was 2-8 (1-6 3pt, 6-8 ft) for 11 points with 2 assists and 5 boards. It was a solid outing but I think LLP is definitely still feeling out the offense and he also missed a couple wide open threes. Trevon Hughes got the best of everyone today but I think he really took it to Laval a couple times as well.
• Jevohn Shepherd: Shep got only one stint off the bench but I think Novak’s monster game was a big part of that. Beilein also played Gibson a little more in an attempt to match Wisconsin’s size. Shep might have helped defensively but Novak was just playing too well.
• CJ Lee: CJ hit a big three in the first half and played hard but he still doesn’t give us that much besides basically being a coach on the floor. I think a lot of his minutes in their first half were a message to Manny to calm down.
• Zack Gibson: 1 rebound in 14 minutes with 2 points isn’t really going to cut it. Gibson is in a funk and needs to figure his way out of it because Michigan is going to need him to win games in the Big Ten.
• Kelvin Grady: Grady didn’t get a lot of minutes and I’m not sure why. The game certainly wasn’t uptempo which hurts Kelvin and Wisconsin just had so much size with all the switching on defense.

Basics:
Who: Michigan (10-2) vs Wisconsin (9-3)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Wednesday, December 31st 2pm ET
TV: ESPN2
Line: U-M by 3
Preview: Stat Sheet
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)

The fun and games are over and it’s time to tip off the grinding Big Ten schedule. Only 3 of Michigan’s next 19 games are against teams outside of the RPI top 100 and the Big Ten is going to be more competitive from top to bottom than it has been in years. If you caught last night’s Illinois/Purdue game you got a pretty good reminder of what Big Ten basketball is all about.

Wisconsin is a team designed for conference play. Bo Ryan has turned Wisconsin into a machine that systematically rises to the top of the Big Ten year in and year out. Last year’s team lost to Marquette and Duke in the non-conference before winning the Big Ten with a 16-2 record and taking the tournament title for good measure. When you look at Wisconsin you have to throw out their losses to Texas, Marquette, and UConn and realize that they are going to bring it on Wednesday.

The key for both teams in this game is pace. Michigan averages 65.8 possessions per game compared to Wisconsin’s 61.2. The Big Ten is known for slow basketball and Wisconsin is one of the reasons why. The only conference team that plays slower than Wisconsin is Iowa (57.2) and they are the slowest team in the country. Michigan isn’t an uptempo team but they need to play the game at their pace and not let Wisconsin take the air out of the ball. Wisconsin’s 3 losses came in games with over 63 possessions and they have only won two games with over 63 possessions (UW-GB and SIU-Edwardsville).

Wisconsin’s backcourt consists of Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon and they can both shoot it. Hughes is shooting 47.8% from long range while averaging 30 mpg, 12.6 ppg, and 2.8 apg to 1.3 to/game. Bohannon’s percentage is down a little from last year at 35.2% but he leads the team in long range attempts.

Up front the Badgers lean on the duo of Joe Krabbenhoft and Marcus Landry. Landry averages 12.1 ppg to go along with his 4.3 boards but he’s also a threat from outside with a 42.9% 3pt percentage. Krabbenhoft is a guy who has never quite turned into a superstar but is just consistent. Krabbenhoft averages a balanced 7.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg, and 2.5 apg.

Keaton Nankivil (5.1ppg, 3.9 rpg) rounds out the starting lineup but the guy to watch out for is sixth man Jon Leuer. Leuer is a 6-10 sophomore forward who can step out and hit the three (46.7%) and averages 9.8 ppg and 3.6 rpg.

Wisconsin is a team full of guys who can step out and shoot the three but also play disciplined slow basketball and grind you up. The keys for Michigan beyond dictating the tempo are winning the turnover battle and keeping Wisconsin off the free throw line. Michigan has done a good job keeping opponents off the line but they also don’t do a very good job getting to the line. Michigan plays best when they use their 1-3-1 effectively and create turnovers and get some easy baskets. The 1-3-1 has looked a bit dicey over the last couple games but Beilein has typically done a good job tweaking it just the right way in big games.

KenPom thinks this is a game Michigan should win 67-63 (67% confidence) and I agree as long as Michigan can play their game. Hopefully they come ready to play despite students being absent because if they don’t Wisconsin will come out swinging and steal one in Ann Arbor. Arguably our three worst games have been when there are no students (Savannah State, Florida Gulf Coast, and North Carolina Central). I worry a little bit about some of the freshmen in their first Big Ten game but they have played the likes of Duke and UCLA and played in College Park so I think they are at least a little battle tested. These first four conference games are huge and it’s important for Michigan to get off to a very good start if they want to go dancing down the road.

Thoughts and predictions in the comments. Also, if you have the day off and are in the area try to make it to Crisler Arena because there are still tickets available.

I have been playing around with ways to do some more in depth statistical post-game analysis. Something along the lines of MGoBlog‘s Under Further Review or 82games.com.  An entire play by play system I think would just be far too boring for the amount of effort it would take (but gives props to those who put in the work). There are usually 2-3 games every week and I wouldn’t have time to do an entire UFR for every game. I started to do some kind of UFR and then decided it would make a lot more sense to just read a play-by-play if someone wanted that kind of data.

In the end I decided the first thing I wanted to do was analyze what lineups worked and who had the biggest effect on the team’s success. What I came up with was a very limited +/- analysis similar to 82games.com. I am definitely planning to expand this feature but I really wanted to see what you guys thought of the idea and what I have so far. The result is simply the number of points scored when the player/unit is on the floor minus the number of points scored by the other team while they are on the floor.

Obviously the first thing that stands out is Novak’s +31 in only 15 minutes. Novak was on the floor during both of Michigan’s big runs but he only had 3 points, 1 assist, 1 rebound, 1 steal, and 1 turnover. I think that Novak at the four definitely helps to stretch the opposing defense and really opens up the offense but I was still a bit shocked to see him at the top of the list.

Manny and Peedi as expected are next in line, they both played substantial minutes in a 20 point win so they naturally have a high plus/minus.

Douglass and Grady are right behind and they combined for only 7 points but also 5 assists and no turnovers. McCormick also pointed out a couple times when Grady had what would have been an assist but led to free throws.  Point guard minutes from here on out should be a lot closer to 30 minutes for Grady and 10 for Merritt. Merritt basically has no effect on the game (+2) while Kelvin posted a very solid +18.

The troubling part of this list are the three other guys at power forward besides Zack Novak: Gibson -8, Shepherd -3, and Wright -1. These three just are not producing. Gibson was abused on defense and missed three wide open three pointers. Shepherd had one good stretch with some follow ups but other than that didn’t do much. Michigan needs one of these guys to step up because this was a game where DeShawn Sims had to play 34 minutes. If Sims gets injured on into foul trouble that means Gibson will play significant minutes.

I was also surprised at Laval Lucas-Perry’s goose egg. Laval came out and rained three triples but after that was very unproductive. He missed a couple layups, a free throw, and another three point attempt. It is only his third game so I’m willing to accept the fact that this has to do with his transition at this point.

Beyond individual performances I looked at which lineups clicked. The one thing I need to do next time is track the number of minutes each line up plays. This will be a little more work but looking back at it, it is definitely necessary. The three lineups that got the most playing time in my estimation are:

• Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Shepherd, Sims
• Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Gibson, Sims
• Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims

The best by a large margin was Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, and Sims. The lineup numbers confirm that when Novak is on the floor the team produces. The Grady, LLP, Harris, Novak, Sims lineup was only on the court the first time Laval came on the court and when he hit his first two threes. I would like to see Beilein go with this group a little more but understand that Novak was limited to 15 minutes because of fouls.

The two worst lineups have the common denominator of Zack Gibson being on the floor. The lineups with Gibson at the five were only used for short stretches when DeShawn was on the bench (6 minutes total). Wright also got limited playing time but he wasn’t on the floor with any lineups that posted a positive +/-.

Looking at these lineups you can see why Beilein started Novak in the second half and pulled Merritt after only 30 seconds or so. Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims is definitely our strongest lineup at this point even if it does present a size problem at the PF.

It’s hard to take too much from this data after only one game because it’s just a small sample size and after a couple games in the Big Ten it will be easier to identify which lineups work and which don’t. I am very curious whether Novak continues to post huge +/- numbers as well or if this was more of a fluke.

I’d love some feedback on this so I can continue to try to improve it. 82games is the inspiration but they have a lot more resources and data at their finger tips to track this kind of stuff so I am going to have to pick and choose what is reasonable.

On another note, be sure to check out Dana O’Neill’s feature on Manny Harris and John Beilein.

The Big Ten season kicks off tonight with Illinois heading to West Lafayette to take on a tough Boilermaker team. The conference has exceeded preseason expectations in the non conference season and several teams who were expected to settle around the middle of the Big Ten have pulled off surprising marquee wins in the early going. The Big Ten also came closer than it has in years to winning the Big Ten/ACC challenge and probably should have won it. In the end, the non conference season has raised more questions than it’s answered.

This year there are not going to be very many easy wins in the conference. Every night is going to be a battle and there is really only one awful team in the conference this year. Here’s my best attempt at sorting out the conference and predicting the standings, because of all the parity I think 3 through 7 is almost a toss up.

1. Michigan State – I still feel that Michigan State has the most talent from top to bottom of any team in the Big Ten. All jokes aside, Suton is a very good player and helps make MSU a more complete team. They will continue to gel as a team and I think they will benefit from a fresh start.

2. Purdue - The Boilermakers have struggled at times this year but are still in pretty good shape. They have two respectable losses to Oklahoma and Duke but have yet to live up to expectations from last years surprising season. On paper I think the Boilermakers have just as much talent as anyone in the league. Their talent mixed with their tenacity on defense will keep them right near the top of the Big Ten.

3. Minnesota - Minnesota’s record is inflated by a lot of cupcake wins but I think they can be in the tournament tier of the Big Ten. They have a great opportunity to make a statement early on with home games against Michigan State and Ohio State.

4. Michigan - Michigan enters the conference season with the best pair of non conference wins but they have yet to prove they can withstand the grind of the Big Ten season and win on the road. Michigan is weak in the post and any injuries to DeShawn Sims or Manny Harris could be costly. Michigan also has a back loaded schedule and only gets to play Indiana once. It’s important for Michigan to jump out to a great start because wins will be a lot tougher in the second half of the conference schedule.

5. Illinois - Illinois plays great defense but the question is how good can their offense be? They have balanced scoring with Meachum, McCamey, Davis, and Tisdale but I don’t think they have any playmakers to take over a game. The debacle of not getting a shot off in the closing seconds of the Clemson game comes to mind.

6. Wisconsin - The Badgers will probably make me look stupid for putting them this low but they just haven’t proved anything to me. Their best win is a road win against a mediocre Virginia Tech team and they have gone 0-3 in chances for quality wins. In the end though it seems like Wisconsin always finds itself near the top of the conference.

7. Ohio State – Evan Turner looks like an early candidate to win Big Ten Player of the Year and the Buckeyes have some solid wins at Miami, at Notre Dame, and Butler. However I think David Lighty’s injury and Noopy Crater’s transfer will hold the Buckeyes back, and you never want to head into the conference season after getting destroyed on your home floor.

8. Penn State - Talor Battle has been spectacular but I’m taking a wait and see approach. Penn State won’t be a gimmie win for anyone but I don’t think they are contenders either.

9. Northwestern - Same situation as Penn State, Northwestern will be competitive in every game but I don’t see them contending.

10. Iowa - Iowa just hasn’t beaten anyone. The Hawkeyes are 10-3 but all of their wins have been against RPI 100+ teams.

11. Indiana - There is a huge gap between Indiana and everyone else. The Hoosiers are just flat out bad and enter the Big Ten on a three game losing streak (Kentucky, Northeastern, and Lipscomb).

Here are some other takes on how the Big Ten will shakeout:

• Big Ten Conference Season Preview, Tempo-Free-Aerial-Style
  Michigan offense = good, Defense = bad
  
• Big Ten Non-conference review
  Off the Tracks has Michigan at #2
• Big Ten hoops preview
  Badgercentric has Michigan at #3

It took Michigan until March 13th to win their 10th game last season. This year they have already reached the 10 win mark before the conference season has tipped off. Last year’s struggles against teams like Central Michigan and Harvard are nightmares of the past and now it appears that Michigan is poised to make a run at the NCAA tournament.

Tonight’s game felt like one that everyone knew we just had to get out of the way before Wednesday’s Big Ten opener. Michigan came out and got an early lead before falling asleep at the wheel. North Carolina Central gave them something to think about at halftime and Michigan responded as the lead ballooned to 20 points before falling asleep again. It’s frustrating to let teams hang around and I think this can come back and bite us but in the end a win is a win and North Carolina Central never really had a chance to win.

Manny Harris had another dominating performance with 29 points, 16 rebounds, 7 assists, and only 1 turnover. He definitely forced the issue a couple times early in the game but I loved to see him get in the lane in the second half. I think Manny had been settling for jumpers rather than taking it to the hole in recent games and Michigan is going to need his production at the free throw line in conference play.

The rotation still seems up in the air, especially at the power forward position. Shepherd started the game at the four but wasn’t very productive in the first half and Novak started the 2nd half. Jevohn did come in and give Michigan a boost with 2 put backs when Michigan was in a bit of a funk. Anthony Wright got a stint off the bench when Novak picked up his third foul but it seems pretty clear that he is getting cut out of the rotation. Novak, Gibson, Shepherd, and Wright are going to play the minutes at the four and Michigan really needs that second guy to step up and be a contributor.

Michigan had a poor day shooting the ball but held North Carolina Central to an even lower percentage. Rebounding was a wash. Michigan won the game by holding onto the ball and getting to the free throw line 25 more times than the Eagles. Michigan shot well below their season average of 80% at the stripe as well and only made 20 of their 30 attempts.

The final thing that’s frustrating about tonight’s game was that our RPI fell from the mid teens all the way to 37th. Our strength of schedule also took a huge fall down to 87. The Big Ten season will help the numbers but a game like this shows why it is so important to play teams that are going to fall in the 100-200 RPI range rather than the 300+.

Player Bullets:

• DeShawn Sims: Peedi tweaked his ankle in the first half and went to the locker room to get taped up. He came back and still played most of the game although he was definitely gimpy in half time warmups. Peedi had a solid game with 17 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals. Peedi had 6 turnovers though and a lot of them were pretty rough and led directly to NCC points or were blown easy opportunities.
• Laval Lucas-Perry: Laval is a 2 guard. I was always skeptical of all the talk that LLP would be a point guard on this team and thus far he has played strictly 2-guard and has zero assists through 3 games. LLP can definitely shoot it though and hit his first three triples today. I’m not sure what happened on his late botched layup on the dime from Manny, he must have been surprised to have the ball land in his lap.
• Stu Douglass: 17 minutes, 7 points on 3-8 shooting (1-5 3pt), 1 rebound, 1 assist, 0 turnovers. I was surprised to see that Stu took 8 shots but I think he looks more confident on his shot than he did when he went through a bit of a drought earlier this year.
• Zack Novak: Novak picked up some cheap fouls and was limited to only 17 minutes. If Zack is going to play the 4 he is going to need more than 1 rebound in a game though.
• Kelvin Grady: Kelvin shot 0-4 but this is becoming his team. He is getting a lot more minutes than Merritt and this time and is doing a great job holding onto the ball and finding open teammates. Kelvin had 4 assists and 0 turnovers in 27 minutes. Kelvin has only 9 turnovers in 12 games.
• Dave Merritt: Dave is seeing his minutes dwindle and was pulled less than a minute into the second half. Merritt is able to run the team but Grady is going to play more and more. I still don’t have a problem with Dave starting as long as Kelvin is playing more minutes.
• Zack Gibson: Zack needs to start hitting wide open three pointers. He had three of them today and didn’t hit any of them. If he can be a little more of an offensive threat it will help make up for his liabilities on the glass.
• Jevohn Shepherd: Shep was playing really well for a couple of games but has seemed to regress a bit. He doesn’t look as comfortable on his jump shot and at the stripe but he still brings some energy with athleticism on the glass.