Catching Up

Dylan Burkhardt
  • Updates have been a little light lately, I’ve been busy and it’s just been pretty slow.
  • Summer AAU ball is slowing down and we are getting toward Darius Morris’ expected decision date of “late summer”/August. I’ll try to work on updating the hot board this week as well.
  • Beilein hired Jeff Meyer to replace Tracy Hamner. Interesting that we would hire an administrative assistant from IU after the mess that took place in Bloomington.
  • Mike W passed along this link to a rumored schedule for Northeastern. From the link it appears that the two opening games in the Coaces vs. Cancer region in Ann Arbor will be UMass vs Northeastern and Michigan vs Campbell (9-20 last year).
  • A couple of Illinois tidbits, respected message board poster MHoops notes that Jamar Smith may be getting the boot; meanwhile 2009 big man Meyers Leonard verballed to Bruce Weber tonight.

Since news has been kind of slow lately I’m going to leave a couple open ended discussion questions.

  • Realistically how do you see next season going? Conference projection? NIT? NCAA? Losing record?
  • Who is Michigan’s #3 scorer next year? How many players average over 10ppg?
  • Fisher Forever

    Losing season overall, though slightly better than last year’s record.

    9th in the Big Ten. 5-6 wins as a ceiling.

    Needless to say, no NIT, and NCAA, are you kidding me?

    LLP will be the #3 scorer because someone has to be.

  • I’m fairly certain that the team will be better this year. Especially with the influx of new talent this should be true. I truly think that the 08-09 campaign hinges on Sims. He needs to really step up his game and at least become a consistent 15-5 guy. He’s spending too much time on the perimeter hoping his shot drops instead of attacking the basket. Other than that if Novak or Douglass can end up putting in 7 – 10 points a night I’ll be pretty happy. If I had to predict a record I’d say .500 and an NIT berth. Asking for the NCAA’s is a bit much right now, but obviously I’d take it if it happened.

  • AC

    I was somewhat optimistic before Udoh left. While I realize he wouldn’t have added a LOT to the team, he would have played 25 minutes per game and been a solid big man on the defensive end. Now we’re looking at significant minutes for Gibson and the freshmen – not exactly inspiring.

    MSU, OSU, WIS, and ILL will be the top four teams. Purdue shocked everyone last year by joining that group, so we’ll give them enough credit to keep them in the top five.

    Indiana will be a mess. Northwestern will continue to be Northwestern. PSU will still be PSU. Minnesota will probably be bad. Iowa is a wildcard.

    So the teams contending for the #6 spot in the conference, which is likely an NIT berth or NCAA bubble are Iowa, Michigan, PSU, and Minnesota. I like those odds…..

    I also like that Michigan won’t have to play multiple walk-ons just to fill out a roster. Sure, they’re playing freshmen – but these are accomplished high school players and not walk-ons. Instead of Manny having to play the entire game and take it all on his shoulders, he’s got LLP, Novak, and Douglas to spell him at times.

    We lost Udoh & Coleman, we gained the four freshman and a year of experience under Beilein.

    I think they’ll hover around .500 all season and sneak into the NIT.

    I hope LLP is the 3rd scorer. If not him, then I hope either Novak or Douglas turns out to be a sharpshooter who hits 3-4 threes per game and hovers around 10ppg.

  • Old Style

    I think the team will be around .500. as far as leading scorer, I hope it’s Cronin. Having an inside threat, it would be nice if Sims was down there more, would really help the whole offense.

  • Steele

    I’m assuming Michigan’s schedule will be significantly easier than last year, so I’ll be disappointed if we only improve by a couple wins. An NIT berth would be welcome after the disaster that was the 2007-2008 season.

    I would guess LLP will be the third scorer. I think he’s the most talented addition to this year’s squad, but who knows how things will work out after he spends another 1/2 season watching from the sidelines. It’s most likely going to take some time for him to find his rhythm when he’s allowed to play again…

  • Die Hard

    NIT bound. Stu Douglass will be 3rd leading scorer.

  • Andrew

    Schedule won’t be nearly as hard as it was last year, and we won’t have a freshmen running alot of PG like we did last year. I’m expecting 16-18 wins and an NIT birth. An analyst on the BTN predicted that we’d end the NCAA drought this year, but I think he’s crazy.
    LLP will be the third leading scorer, but Stuart Douglass will be a major contributor as well.

  • Bluebufoon

    Here is a list of schools for Matt Vogrich
    of Lake Forest Illinois, which includes U-M.

  • Giddings

    Wow, second question is a lot more intriguing than the first…

    For the first, I agree with AC – right around .500 and sneaking into the NIT. Hopefully they can win a couple games in the NIT and gain some tournament experience for the young guys.

    For the second, I’m torn between Gibson, LLP, A-Wright, Kelvin, and Stu (I know, I know, I’ll stop before I name the entire roster)… but I’ll go with the wild card and say Kelvin.

  • Brick

    We should improve over last year and I think NIT should be expected and being on the bubble would be a pleasant surprise.

    Gibson will double his minutes from last year so with the same scoring per minute he should average around 11 ppg. Once LLP starts playing, he should average around 10 but I think he’ll fall just short and leave us with three double digit scorers.

    And a note to Old Style: If Cronin is one of our leading scorers, we will not be .500, we will make the NCAAs. My guess is this is highly unlikely. Big men take a while to develop. Cronin will probably play around 13 minutes a game and average 4 or 5 ppg. If he can stay out of foul trouble and average 6 or 7 I would be ecstatic.

  • umdcbball

    I see us finishing with 15-17 wins. We were so bad last year and ended up with 10 wins, we can get to 13 wins this year by just winning against the garbage type teams we lost to last year. That means I’m seeing an increase of 2-4 wins over good teams this year. I don’t think that is unreasonable.

    I think we get into the NIT finishing 7th in the Big Ten. I think Gibson will be the third leading scorer on the team. But only two guys (Sims and Harris) ave. over 10 a game. Ultimately, I think we’ll have a bunch of guys giving us 5-9 a game and I think Gibson will be at the top of that list.

    Now my prediction for 2010 is a Big Ten title! With a 2 seed marking our triumphant return to the NCAAs! You can book it!

  • Fisher Forever

    Apparently many of you don’t keep up with things. A .500 record in a major conference doesn’t likely get you an NIT berth anymore. They’ve changed the way those bids are handed out to take care of more mid-majors who have great regular seasons but miss out on the NCAA tournament because of their conference tourneys.

    Minnesota will be better than we will. So will PSU. Northwestern brought in a much better recruiting class than we did, and they have better players returning as well. Iowa should be down, and Indiana will be terrible. 9th place for Michigan, unfortunately.

  • Northwestern brought in a better recruiting class AND has better returning players? Care to clarify?

  • Also..
    Conference Bids
    4: ACC
    3: Atlantic 10, Big 12, Missouri Valley
    2: Big Ten, Pacific-10, SEC
    1: Big East, Big South, Big West, Colonial, CUSA, MAC, Mid-Eastern, Mountain West, Northeast, Southland, Summit, SWAC, WAC

    Those are NIT bids. So 5th and 6th in the Big Ten. OSU 10-8, Minnesota 8-10. Both around 20-14.

    PSU was 7th and had a losing record (15-16 7-11)

  • Fisher Forever

    Coble is better than anyone on our roster. Sorry, but that’s the truth. Thompson was far better than any of our point guards, and Moore is a better shooter than anyone we have. Northwestern brought in two big men better than anyone we signed. Wish it wasn’t so, but I expect them to be better than us this coming year.

    You just made my point about the NIT. 500 overall isn’t going to get it done. It used to. If you finished with a winning record overall as a Big Ten team, you normally got an NIT bid. Doesn’t work that way anymore.

  • Dylan

    I understand your point about the nit. I was posting last years results for reference. Also we will have to agree to disagree on nw.

  • aaron

    coble, better than harris? he may be more important to NW but he isn’t the better player

  • Fisher Forever

    No, he’s a better player. He’s a better shooter, better rebounder, and he scores more. So, what exactly does Harris do better? We tend to overrate our own guys a lot. COble is probably one of the five best players in the Big Ten this season.