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It becomes more clear with each passing game, this team’s confidence and psyche are shattered.  They look worn down mentally and become increasingly frustrated with each mistake. When opponents make a run the look on the faces of Michigan players is clear: “here we go again”.

In many ways I think the team on the court has the same feeling as the fans off of it. How did this happen? It’s clear that this is a lost season and these kids aren’t dumb, they know it too.

Wisconsin put on a shooting clinic in the first half. The Badgers shot 15 of 22 (68.2%) from the field and 9 of 13 (69.2%) from three point range for an eFG% of 88.6%. Wisconsin got a handful of great looks but they also hit some incredibly difficult shots as well. In the first half Wisconsin scored 1.75 points per possession, not too shabby.
Continue reading ‘Game 23: Wisconsin at Michigan Post Game’

Basics Who: Michigan (11-11, 4-6) vs. Wisconsin(17-5, 7-3) Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI When: February 6th, 4PM TV: CBS Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ 950 AM/WTKA 1050 AM Line: Pick em Stats: Live TFS Pomeroy Profile First Match-up: Preview / Post game

Wisconsin’s consistent success in the Big Ten is tough to explain. Luckily, KJ hit the nail on the head in his MSU/Wisconsin preview earlier this week:

Take a team that went 10-8 in Big Ten play in 2009, subtract the team’s leading scorer and leading rebounder (two different guys), add two freshman role players playing a combined 21.1 minutes per game, and you get . . . a team that starts the season 13-3 overall and 3-1 in conference play

Now go ahead and knock the team’s new star out with an injury–a guy who had emerged as the team’s second leading scorer, top rebounder, and a legitimate contender for the conference player of the year.  Now, of course, you have . . . a team that still managed to win 3 of 5 games to find itself in a second-place tie in the Big Ten standings. [ed: Now 4 of 6]

My point?  The Wisconsin basketball team, as coached by Bo Ryan, defies rational analysis.  But we’ll give it a shot anyways.

In an era of sports that is dominated by super stars and glamour, Bo Ryan defies logic and keeps on winning games; that includes all 5 match-ups with Michigan head coach John Beilein. Beilein will look to finally knock off Wisconsin as he attempts to right the ship in Ann Arbor.

Michigan led the first match-up for 35+ minutes before crumbling down the stretch while Trevon Hughes and Rob Wilson took over. Michigan proved to themselves that they can play with the Badgers, who shot terribly in the first match-up, but nobody knows what sort of effort you will get from Michigan on any given night.

All things considered, this feels like one of those games where Michigan will come to play and remind us that they are actually capable of putting a good game together. It’s against a big name opponent, at home, on a Saturday afternoon, and on national television. Then again, if there is one thing that this team has taught us, it’s don’t assume anything.

Michigan is 1-4 since they knocked off UConn two weeks ago. Some of the games have been close but 1-4 is not good, no matter how you spin it. So why is Michigan struggling? Here are the two biggest reasons in my book:

• Manny Harris is going through one of the worst stretches in his Michigan career. He not only missed one game due to suspension but he has played very poorly in the other four. He is  shooting 33% from the field (19 of 57) in his last four games and averaging more than 3 turnovers per contest.
• Shooting. Michigan’s shooting numbers over the last five games are absolutely terrible. FG%: 36.6%, eFG%: 43.2%,2PFG%: 42.5%, 3pFG%: 29.4%. It’s really hard to win games when you shoot that poorly.

A game versus Wisconsin is unlikely to cure either of these problems. Manny Harris has traditionally struggled against the Badgers and the last time out Tim Jarmusz held Manny to 11 points on 4 of 14 shooting with 3 turnovers. Wisconsin also has one of the best defenses in the country (6th in KenPom adjusted efficiency). They hold their opponents to 43.5% 2point shooting and 45.2% eFG shooting overall.

For more on Wisconsin and their personnel, check out my preview of the last game (which was less than two weeks ago). Trevon Hughes is the guy that makes Wisconsin go and after that it’s a crap shoot as to who shoulders the load on any given day. Keaton Nankivil hit 7 of 8 triples at Purdue after making only 1 of 7 versus Michigan. Jordan Taylor, Jason Bohanon, and Rob Wilson have also all notched double digit performance since Leuer’s injury.

Each player in the Badger’s lineup is just barely dangerous enough that you can’t forget about them on the defensive end. To have a chance in this one, Michigan will have to match Wisconsin’s defensive intensity from start to finish. Because Nankivil is the only player in the Wisconsin rotation over 6-foot-6, DeShawn Sims should be called upon early and often. His 23 point (9 of 14 shooting) 13 rebound performance in Madison was the only reason Michigan had a chance to win.

After that it comes down to anyone else hitting shots. That hasn’t happened much this year so it’s tough to predict anything but a Wisconsin win. Pomeroy likes Wisconsin, 58-53, and gives Michigan only a 26% chance at the win on their home floor. I’ll take Wisconsin 64, Michigan 54. Let’s hear your predictions in the comments.

• Crisler Arena: Not Exactly A-maize-ing
  Stadium Journey reviews Crisler Arena. Crisler scored worse than Loyola’s arena, Carver Hawkeye, the Kohl Center, and the Barn. But damn it we beat Assembly Hall (Ill) and Welsh-Ryan!
• The ABC12 Athlete of the week is Trey Ziegler
  Video fluff
• Novak Earns Academic All-District IV Honor
  Business school, good grades, helping kids, etc.
• Who’s been dying to see those PORPAG numbers?
  Sims #2 in KJ’s ranking system
• Tournament expansion isn’t a done deal, it’s just inevitable
  Gasaway knows best
• Wolverines to Celebrate 25th Anniversary of 1984-85 Squad
  Saturday vs. Wisconsin
• A bigger bracket has plenty of angles to study
  The bracketologist on bigger brackets

Here’s another update from 2010 commitment Evan Smotrycz. The senior has been playing well of late after recovering from a calf injury. Smotrycz has scored 15 points in a win over Exeter and added 14 versus Worcester. The school website recapped his play versus Worcester: “great all-around game, rebounding and making plays for his teammates”.

Here’s the latest commit diary:

I can’t believe its February. As it stands now we have 8 games left before the playoffs, and an overall record of 16-8. Our coaches tell us frequently that this is the start of the best years of our lives and we need to take advantage while we can. That reality is starting to set in, but we need to finish the season strong and obtain some good momentum come playoff time.

I am coming off a calf injury that is now pretty much fully healed and I am able to play comfortably. Since we came back from Christmas break we have played a lot of games in a short amount of time. We had a good road win at Worcester Academy, who has a real good scorer in Billy Baron. Billy is going to be playing for his dad, and with my teammate Kyle Cain next year at the University of Rhode Island. He gave us some trouble but thankfully we took care of business and came out with the win.

We beat Phillips Exeter at home tonight by 40 and have a couple more games that we should win coming up. It’s hard to believe but it already starting to get warmer (anything above 30 is warm to me at this point), and we are going to have to push through injuries and fatigue and finish the regular season with some more wins. With the departure of a few guys, for various reasons, we are now down to 10 players. Despite of that everyone else has picked up the slack and it doesn’t seem like we have missed a beat. We are in a good position right now and just need to stay sharp and take advantage of the little time we have left.

The last month or so has been littered with games where Michigan reminds you how good they could have been. In this one, Michigan reminded us how bad they really are.

Northwestern dominated Michigan in all facets of the game in what was easily one of the worst performances in Michigan’s 11-11 season.

Michigan didn’t hit shots but most of all they didn’t defend. The Wildcat offense walked all over Michigan, scoring 1.19 points per possession with a 65.2/57.7/50 (eFG/2pt/3pt) shooting line. The worst effective field goal percentage that Michigan has allowed this year.
Continue reading ‘Game 22: Michigan at Northwestern Post Game’